Rookie Report: Checking in on the Washington Wizards
Alex Sarr headlines the Washington Wizards’ 2024-25 rookie class, which have all seen real playing time so far this season. Photo Credit: Patrick Smith/Getty Images
There are several stages to a rebuild in the NBA. First comes the teardown, where formerly integral players are shipped off for the best package of assets, be they draft picks or promising young players. Then, as on-court goals shift towards development, front offices prioritize flexibility and further asset accumulation by trading more players and taking on contracts other teams would like to dump. The real prize during these years is the team’s standing in the draft lottery, where they have the best chance at securing the kind of player that can turn the franchise around. If done right — and with enough luck — a rebuild doesn’t need to be long, but there almost always has to be a lot of losing along the way.
So far, the Washington Wizards have done everything by the book. They started with a teardown, sending Bradley Beal to Phoenix and Kristaps Porzingis to Boston two summers ago. Ever since, they’ve made several moves to build their asset chest while developing their youth. Their eyes are surely on the next two, highly-touted draft classes to land their true centerpiece, but their current crop of young prospects is already intriguing. On top of Bilal Coulibaly, their seventh overall pick in 2023, they drafted three players in the first round last summer — Alexandre Sarr at 2, Carlton “Bub” Carrington at 14, and Kyshawn George at 24. All three have received ample playing time, with Carrington and Sarr leading all rookies in minutes per game and George in the top five, unsurprising given the team’s on-court aspirations.
Even though the context of this team (owner of the NBA’s worst offense and third-worst defense, per Cleaning the Glass) doesn’t remotely match what the Wizards hope to be when these players are entering their primes, that doesn’t mean there isn’t a lot to learn about them on film. This is the starting point of their NBA journeys, the base from which they’ll work off of for the rest of their careers. As they navigate this new basketball existence with classic rookie mistakes, there will inevitably be flashes of what’s to come. This is necessary experience, ugly as it may look sometimes. With the leash they’ve been given, the young Wizards are gaining a ton of it.
Let’s take a look at all three of Washington’s rookies through that lens: what’s gone well, what hasn’t, and how it informs their development going forward. This isn’t meant to be an end-all-be-all declaration about these players, just a series of observations and what they might mean. During the dog days of a rebuild, this is the fun part.
Alex Sarr
It turns out, despite what some tried to claim on social media after he shot 0-for-15 in a Summer League game, that Alex Sarr isn’t the worst player of all time. The second overall pick in the 2024 draft is quickly adjusting to NBA life, earning Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month for his play in December. There were concerns that his frame would initially hinder his effectiveness at center, his likely long-term position, which the Wizards seemed to address by signing longterm starter Jonas Valanciunas. But Sarr’s started every game he’s played at the five, and while it hasn’t stopped the team from being very bad in his minutes, these reps will help him for the rest of his career.
Standing seven feet tall with a 7’4 wingspan, it only takes a cursory glance at Sarr to see what makes him such a tantalizing defensive prospect. His measurables scream that he has what it takes to anchor a defense long-term, and his responsibilities on the Wizards match up with that. According to tracking data provided by NBA.com/stats, Sarr is contesting 9.1 shots per game within six feet of the rim in the league, more than anyone other than Chet Holmgren (who’s played in 10 games to Sarr’s 31). The fact that opponents are shooting well on those looks isn’t too alarming to me given the Wizards’ team defense overall and Sarr’s age/rookie status. He’s blocking 1.7 shots per game, sixth most in the NBA, and his length around the rim can be a real impediment.
Of course, there’s more to being a rim protector than just blocking shots. The great ones are adept in drop coverage, leveraging their skills and the hesitation they instill in opponents to limit as many good shots as possible out of ball screens. It requires a nuanced understanding of positioning to effectively deter ball-handlers from getting downhill and keeping track of their own man rolling to the rim. Rookies usually struggle to toe that line at times, not committing to either option and winding up in “no man’s land.” Sarr is no exception:
It’s important to reiterate that entering the league with this skill developed at a high level is the exception, not the norm. Sarr’s reps don’t all look like this, either. The goal moving forward is to eliminate these possessions and be consistent.
Something that has consistently stood out to me is Sarr’s mobility. He moves his feet well for someone his size, a boon for a big in today’s NBA. Like everybody else, the Wizards toggle between multiple different defensive coverages throughout the course of games, and Sarr’s shown flashes of being able to hold his own on switches. Watch these possessions on Khris Middleton, one of the better isolation shot creators in the league:
In modern basketball, versatility is the name of the game. Bigs that can execute several different coverages are incredibly coveted; if Sarr can bring that on top of his rim protection, there’s a clear path to becoming one of the most impactful defenders in the league. His mobility creates that kind of defensive potential, and that’s something identifiable now.
That mobility isn’t just visible on offense — it enables his most tantalizing flashes on that end. Every so often, Sarr will grab a rebound and go coast to coast with ease and either finish or dime a teammate:
I love these moments. Aside from being really fun to watch, they showcase a lot of what makes Sarr exciting, particularly his passing flair. His vision is pretty advanced for someone his age and position, and he’s constantly looking to make the quick play within the halfcourt. It appears to come more naturally for him than a lot of other young players — let alone young bigs.
As a scorer, he’s made his mark so far almost entirely as a three-point shooter. The value of a shooting center doesn’t need to be stated, and Sarr has already shown the ability to beat opposing bigs stashing themselves by the rim, both in drop coverage and help:
After shooting 24% from distance in October and November, Sarr hit 45% of his threes in December. Neither number is likely to stick, but if he can land somewhere at or above league average (around 36%), defenses will have to respect him. The latent value of pulling opposing rim protectors away from the basket is a critical component of modern basketball, so in that regard Sarr fits right in.
Unfortunately, that’s the only part of his scoring repertoire that’s stuck out so far. Sarr is shooting 48% from two-point range, despite converting 71% of his shots at the rim. His issue is that he only takes 29% of his shots there, per CTG, a function of his biggest deficiency as a player: a lack of strength. It shows up on drives, in isolation, and even under the rim sometimes. Sarr will engage the opponent but, often finding himself at a strength disadvantage, opt to take a tough shot farther from the basket:
His aversion to contact severely hinders his individual scoring ability right now. Perhaps unsurprisingly given his reliance on the short midrange, his free throw rate is paltry. A lot of it has to do with his thin frame, not yet subject to years of NBA weight training. And while that hasn’t completely held him back on defense, it’s still been detrimental. That shows up in his rebounding — 6.3 boards per game, grabbing them at a rate that ranks in the 22nd percentile among bigs on both ends, per CTG. He’s simply getting bullied by older, stronger, people right now.
Sarr can take solace in the fact that these concerns are similar to those held by draft evaluators, and building his body is surely a big part of his development plan going forward. The way that development goes, though, will define his offensive impact. He isn’t the first tall, long and skinny prospect to enter the league over the last few years, nor the first with contact-averse tendencies. Some, like Jaren Jackson Jr., have gained both strength and assertiveness over the years; it isn’t completely ridiculous to squint and see someone with a handle like Sarr’s developing an isolation game in the vein of Jackson. But if he takes a Deandre Ayton route, opting for finesse over force, then his offense won’t be more than complementary.
This, to me, is the biggest question going forward with Sarr. What kind of offensive player will he become? With his penchant for passing and spacing potential combined with his defense, the high-end outcomes are mouthwatering; if he can never overcome the limitations his frame presents, those outcomes will remain a dream. Lucky for Sarr, he has plenty of time to figure that out. In the meantime, he’ll continue to gain invaluable experience on both ends of the floor, and those of us on the outside get to watch and wonder what could be.
Bub Carrington
The Wizards’ second lottery pick plays on the opposite side of the positional spectrum, but Sarr and “Bub” Carrington have more than a few things in common. At 6’4, Carrington’s tall for a combo guard, with feel for the game but a thin frame that hinders his production at the rim. He’s the only rookie averaging 30 minutes per game this season, with Sarr three minutes behind him. And even though he’s still a project at 19 years old, there are consistent flashes of a very valuable (and fun) player.
Carrington’s got a jitterbug handle, already able to get to the shots he wants. His three-point shooting (35% on the year) makes him a beneficial presence on and off the ball, but his bread and butter is out of a ball screen, where he relentlessly hunts for pull-up midrangers:
The free throw line area is a particularly notable hot spot for him. His handle and balance enable a level of shot creation that you don’t usually see at the NBA level from a teenager in those areas. Almost all of this usage comes after receiving a screen, though, and he’s a little stiff when trying to break his man down off the dribble. But even if he remains more adept with a screen than in isolation, he can still be a very impactful scorer.
Part of that formula requires punishing defenses at all three levels. Carrington’s already got the midrange down, and he’s shot the three with enough volume and confidence to make me believe in it longterm. That leaves the rim, arguably the most important piece of the puzzle. Much like Sarr, Carrington’s volume of shots at the rim is very low for his position, with a similarly low free throw rate. When faced with a larger defender between himself and the rim, he’ll often try to get off something closer to a jumper than a layup, which results in tougher looks:
His lack of strength certainly contributes to this, but I think his tendencies are also a little too pull-up happy. The best pick-and-roll players understand that the best shots are ones at the rim, and use the threat of that to set up the rest of their games. If Carrington can’t establish that part, teams will be able to sell out on his jumpshot and force looks they’re okay with surrendering.
I’d also like to see more from Carrington as a primary playmaker. He’s a willing ball-mover, constantly getting the ball to open teammates within the flow of the offense. His assist rate is quite high given his low usage, a function of this. But a lot of Carrington’s assists are simple reads with an advantage already created for him. His passing reads are similarly fundamental in the pick-and-roll:
Carrington is rarely looking to string out the defense off of screens and make a complex play; rather, his scoring-wired approach makes assists a backup option rather than a primary goal. This could be a function of his low usage as much as anything else, as his opportunities out of ball screens are often set up for him to score. But it’s certainly something I’m keyed in on moving forward.
One thing that suggests these deficiencies have to do with a relative lack of playmaking feel is how and when Carrington feeds his big man out of the pick-and-roll. The only situations where he looks to pass the ball to the screener are when it’s a scripted look or when he decides he can’t get a shot off:
That first pocket pass to Sarr is a designed play; while he’s more than willing to get off the ball and clearly capable of the simple reads, there aren’t advanced plays where the defense is strung out and the big gets a good look at the rim. If Carrington’s future is as an offensive operator out of ball screens, getting to the point where he can weaponize the threat of his scoring to create looks for his teammates is what elevates him from fine player to potential star.
Defensively, Carrington's height is incredibly appealing, and he fights through screens and generally competes. He isn’t a playmaker on that end, but one way his impact has been immediately felt is on the glass — his defensive rebounding percentage is almost as high as Sarr’s, with multiple double-digit rebound games already. His high foul rate doesn’t help things right now, but that’s the sort of thing one hopes will improve with time. I can’t say I believe in Bub as a future All-Defensive team candidate, but he has the size to be at least competent.
Carrington’s counting stats — 9 points, 4 rebounds and 4 assists per game — might not pop off the page, but he’s doing good things every night with the opportunities he’s given. If/when the Wizards trade any of their more established ball handlers, I’m excited to see what it means for Carrington’s usage on the ball. His playmaking and rim pressure will determine the level he’ll reach as a player, and I’d like to see him get more chances to develop those skills. But Carrington has already demonstrated that he can play on and off the ball on top of genuine shot creation. Those perimeter skills are hard to come by — I’m ecstatic to find out what kind of player he becomes.
Kyshawn George
I’m not going to bury the lede when it comes to Kyshawn George’s season so far: touted as a shooting prospect ahead of the draft, the Swiss rookie is shooting 26% from three point range. 48% of his total shots have come above the break, and he’s hit 24% of them. The three simply hasn’t translated, and his lack of shotmaking in 25 minutes per game has contributed to Washington’s offensive woes.
Interestingly enough, the kind of player George has been so far is very different than his scouting report portrayed as a draft prospect. There were concerns about his athleticism and footspeed, particularly on defense. Even though he’s fouling a ton, I came away pretty impressed by George’s on-ball chops. There’s a level of compete, and he’s not half bad at staying in front of his man:
I came away intrigued by George as a defender. His size — 6’7 with a 6’11 wingspan, a coveted “big wing” — certainly adds to that, but I can’t say I expected to see so many solid defensive possessions. His block percentage (1.3%) might look small to the untrained eye, but it ranks in the 87th percentile among all wings, according to CTG. Though he may be overmatched against the best athletes in the league, I’d be surprised if any version of George that sticks in the league is an outright poor defender.
There’s still work to go; aside from the aforementioned foul issue, his closeouts in particular need some work. His recklessness takes him out of plays, which leaves his team at a disadvantage — something every offense is trying to do:
If George can understand the nuances of guarding with physicality and discipline in time, I think he can overcome his relative athleticism deficit and be a solid cog in a good defense some day. Every NBA team is looking for players like that. As the Wizards shift towards competitiveness in the coming years, having someone like that in the rotation could be a real boon.
One way in which George has matched his draft scout is his feel for the game offensively. He isn’t quite a "point forward,” but his feel for the game on the wing is real. Like Sarr, he’s already a willing ball mover, and his passing vision is visible in both the halfcourt and the open floor:
He hasn’t been a featured part of the offense per se, so these moments often come in the flow of the game. That’s a coveted trait for secondary players, an essential component of good teams. If George can rediscover his three-point shot — 40% in college, with the jumper being one of his most highly-advertised traits — I see the vision of a two-way role piece that would improve any roster. There’s a real NBA player in there on both ends of the floor.
George has already had some highs as a pro, scoring 20 and 17 points back-to-back in November. His two-point shooting isn’t disastrous, albeit on low volume. I think that as his shooting and shot profile stabilize, George will improve from being one of the least efficient scorers in the league. Even if he never turns into a high level shot creator, his ability to make the right read in the flow of the offense will be amplified if he can make the looks that the flow creates for him.
Draft picks like this are critical to the success of a rebuild. The Wizards have George through his rookie contract with the opportunity to keep him for years after that. If he becomes the complementary piece I think he can, Washington just struck gold. We’ll have to see how George’s shot develops to ultimately know how it’ll go, but in the face of his shooting splits the early returns have me optimistic.
The Wizards’ rookie class each play different positions, with different roles and expectations. But they’re all big for the role they play, and they all possess a feel for the game beyond their years. The players they’re going to be in a few years will likely look quite different than the versions we’re talking about today, but the seeds will have been planted here. In the absence of wins on the court, the steps they take between now and then are the biggest victories for Washington.
They aren’t the only players in this young Wizards core. Bilal Coulibaly is taking strides this year, but his jumpshot will be the ultimate bellwether of his impact. Two-Way player Justin Champagnie has stood out as an offensive rebounder and three-point shooter; my new colleague Aryan Bhullar reports he’s a strong candidate for a standard contract. Corey Kispert is one of the league’s premiere movement shooters, holding whether it’s with the Wizards or as a trade piece. And quiet as kept, Jordan Poole is enjoying one of the most efficient seasons of his career. Even though there’s no clear-cut, blue chip prospect capable of lifting up the franchise, there’s a lot of young infrastructure for when he gets here.
Malcolm Brogdon, Jonas Valanciunas and Kyle Kuzma should all hold some value on the trade market, and with the Wizards looking to acquire as many assets as possible, don’t be surprised if this roster looks different in February. That could mean an increase in responsibility for the rookies, which will only pay off down the road. This team isn’t competitive in the standings, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a lot worth taking a look at in Washington. As these three players continue to figure out their place in the NBA, we’ll get to keep evaluating their progress.
For all three, the best-case scenarios are genuinely impactful players who contribute to winning basketball in different ways. Despite the road to get there involving major improvements in real areas of concern, those best-case scenarios feel reachable. They possess size, length, feel and mobility, four core tenets of today’s league. I wouldn’t be especially surprised if all three were still around the next time the Wizards are semi-competitive. At this stage in a rebuild, that’s all you can ask for.