2022-23 Playoff Primer: 4/5 Seeds
The 2023 NBA Playoffs are rapidly approaching, and it would behoove any viewer — from casual fan to NBA diehard — to do their homework on all of the teams. What are they good at? What are they not? And how do they match up against their opponents? Luckily, I’ve got you covered. Over the next four days, I’m going to release full scouting reports for all 16 playoff teams. These are the 4 and 5 seeds: The Cleveland Cavaliers, New York Knicks, Phoenix Suns, and Los Angeles Clippers. I hope you enjoy!
Cleveland Cavaliers
Record: 51-31
Seed: 4
Opponent: New York
Notable Team Stats (per Cleaning The Glass)
ORTG: 116.7 (7th leaguewide)
DRTG: 111.0 (1st leaguewide)
Net Differential: +5.8 (2nd leaguewide)
Opponent eFG%: 54.0% (8th leaguewide)
Defensive TOV%: 16.3% (3rd leaguewide)
Opponent 3PT Frequency: 33.7% (6th leaguewide)
Opponent Rim Shot Frequency: 34.5% (21st leaguewide)
Opponent Rim FG%: 62.4% (2nd leaguewide)
The Good
- Cleveland has one of the highest-end blends of offense and defense in the entire NBA. Their star backcourt of Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell is able to wreak havoc against opposing defenses in spite of the fact that they rank among the smallest backcourts in the league. In fact, that hasn’t held them back from having an elite defense, full stop. Spearheaded by Jarrett Allen’s rim protection and Evan Mobley’s rapidly blossoming superstar ability on that end, and buoyed by strong defenders on the wing and in the backcourt, such as Isaac Okoro and Lamar Stevens, the Cavaliers’ defense has been absolutely stifling this season despite their middling marks on the defensive glass and sending opponents to the free throw line.
Part of how they accomplish this is the frequency with which they run opponents off the 3-point line, but it’s largely driven by the sheer inability for their opponents to score at the rim. They’re near the top of the league in opponent FG% at the rim despite giving up a top-10 amount of shots there leaguewide. Give a huge chunk of the credit for that to Mobley and Allen, two of the league’s premier rim protectors, able to wall off the paint together or capably man those responsibilities solo as the only big man on the floor. In fact, the Cavaliers have a defense that would equate to the league’s best with just Allen and just Mobley on the floor, an absurd statistic that just highlights how good those two have been all season. The fact that the Cavs can run multiple different configurations with their big men without sacrificing what makes them tick as a team – elite defense at the rim – means that their playoff versatility is uniquely high for a team that starts two near-7-footers that don’t space the floor.
- To supplement such an elite defense, Cleveland has two of the very most dynamic guards in the entire NBA in Garland and Mitchell, two constant threats with or without the ball due to their incredible shooting, and who amplify each other with their play. Garland and Mitchell have been as unselfish and team-centric with regards to offensive role and responsibility as anyone could have hoped for headed into the season. There is no ego, either from the incumbent All-Star drafted by the organization or the new guy with a career full of playoff runs. The result has been incredibly fun to watch, and the fact that both are having stellar seasons makes a lot of sense.
Mitchell, though, has taken his game to another level – from All-Star in a stacked guard crowd to surefire All-NBA selection. With career high scoring and shooting numbers – in attempts and makes – across the board, Mitchell’s offensive game has catapulted into an elite stratosphere. His shooting should be mentioned amongst the league’s elite at this point, and his footwork and grace driving to the basket powered by eye-popping burst make him an impossible cover. Everyone remembers when he dropped 71 points in a game earlier this season; he just became the eleventh player in league history with 4 consecutive 40-point games. I’d be remiss if I didn’t also acknowledge Mitchell’s postseason history; he holds the record for the third highest scoring playoff game in NBA history (57 in the Orlando Bubble), and his career playoff points per game ranks seventh all-time at 28.33. Mitchell is an elite playoff performer, and he’s going to be given the chance to showcase it for the first time in Cleveland.
Probably due in part to all of the press Mitchell’s (deservedly) had heaped upon him this season, Garland has felt somewhat forgotten in the public sphere. That’s a real shame, because Garland is just as good as he was last year. Averaging almost exactly the same amount of points as he did last year with the addition of Mitchell is impressive enough, but Garland’s also shooting a career high 41% from 3, with some of the deepest range in the NBA. His shiftiness and craft with the ball in his hands serves as a fantastic complement to Mitchell’s more athletically-based driving game, and they are both completely willing and able to generate an advantage for the other and get off the ball immediately, allowing them to both capitalize on easier looks. Garland’s craft as a passer only enhances all of this; he’s a threat to get the ball to rollers, cutters, and shooters all the time, and the Cavs feed off of that ability. Make no mistake about it: the Cavaliers have a star backcourt, and it’s going to be hard to stop.
- During its post-LeBron James rebuild, Cleveland amassed several talented players using several high draft picks. They nabbed Collin Sexton with a Brooklyn Nets pick seventh overall in 2019, who was a piece in the trade for Mitchell; Garland and current starting small forward Isaac Okoro were taken with the fifth pick back-to-back in 2019 and 2020. All three have proven to be NBA-caliber players at the very least; Garland has already been named to an All-Star team. But none hold more promise than the final high draft pick of Cleveland’s rebuild, Evan Mobley, taken with the third pick in the 2021 draft. Mobley is a defensive unicorn – a seven-footer who can swallow any and all shots at the rim while also more than holding his own switched onto the perimeter, with impeccable timing, footspeed, ground coverage and court awareness for a second-year player. His unprecedented and, quite frankly, freakish versatility is what unlocks the Cavaliers’ defense; he can help behind Allen at the rim while still being able to guard his own man in space, and can toggle between duties and schemes at a moment’s notice. The ceiling for Mobley is simultaneously salivating and terrifying; the present version is already a monster.
The offensive end of the court is where Mobley can show the most growth, and the steps he’s taken this season are more than encouraging. Mobley’s playing more confidently on the ball as a scorer, with a growing assortment of moves he will go to around the rim. His handle is also quite advanced for someone his height, and he can already grab rebounds and take the ball coast-to-coast for transition finishes, a move players like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Domantas Sabonis use to dominate their competition. His passing vision, too, is advanced for someone of his age and size; he can and will make the right play when put in position to, such as when he catches the ball on the short roll (Allen is also a good playmaker out of the short roll, which really matters when their guards attract as much attention as they do off of ball screens). All in all, Mobley is growing every day before our very eyes, but this growing version of him is still an absolute handful. He is Cleveland’s swing piece; he will anchor title contenders for years upon years to come, but for this first bite of the apple, any boost from Mobley these playoffs is found money – but the kind that could potentially swing the championship race. Oh, to be a young contender.
The Bad
- We’ve now gone over Cleveland’s backcourt and frontcourt separately and discussed the reasons that it could all work, but when you zoom out to the whole, there are some concerns one could fairly raise. Primarily, the amount of spacing Mitchell and Garland will have around them. There are many benefits to the Mobley/Allen frontcourt pairing; spacing the floor isn’t one of them. Allen has always been a rim-bound offensive player, and Mobley is shooting 22% from 3 this season. And when Cleveland is very short on high-volume 3-point shooters that demand respect, it’s not all that hard to envision a world in which driving lanes for Garland and Mitchell shut off and the offense grinds to a halt, especially when only one of them is on the floor. Teams will make you make them pay for leaving you open in the playoffs. If Mobley can’t play the 4 without the offense bogging down because the Cavs don’t have enough shooting as a team, that pretty significantly weakens one of Cleveland’s most potent strategic weapons.
To play devil’s advocate here, Mobley and Allen’s minutes together have come next to Mitchell and Garland almost exclusively all season, which maximizes Cleveland’s spacing. And one need only look to the Golden State Warriors to find a team with two genuinely great shooters in the backcourt that can make lineups with multiple non-shooters work, especially ones that can maintain the advantages created by the pressure those shooters create like Mobley and Allen can, as mentioned previously. That makes it sound far easier than it is, or else other teams would have done it with major amounts of success; then again, how many teams outside of Golden State have had two guards as deadly from beyond the arc as Cleveland has with Mitchell and Garland?
Regardless, that is asking a ton out of a young team embarking on their first playoff run as a group – and, in the cases of Garland, Mobley, and Okoro, their first playoff runs ever. It’s also asking a ton out of J.B. Bickerstaff, a good head coach who has done a great job with this team, but who has also never coached a playoff team as a true head coach, having only been promoted to interim head coach of the Houston Rockets midway through the 2015-16 season, which saw them eliminated in the first round as the eighth seed. Cleveland has found a formula that, to this point, has brought them a lot of success. They know how to play if they want to win, which is important, but the odds are stacked against them historically. The point of playoff defense is to learn your formula, and do everything possible to take it away. Cleveland’s best lineups containing such a glaring flaw, especially in today’s NBA, is cause for concern.
- Cleveland has a star-caliber player at four positions. That’s fantastic, but when those four star-caliber players are as stylistically as unique as these four are, the player manning the fifth spot really matters. For Cleveland, that spot has been something of a revolving door all season, with no perfect fix on the roster. The ideal fifth player would be one with size, strength and/or defensive ability to mesh with Cleveland’s identity, but one who makes quick decisions with the ball, either driving, passing or shooting with little wasted motion – Cleveland has so much star power with their main guys on the floor, and you want the ball in the hands of Mitchell, Garland and Mobley as much as you can.
Obviously, those are a ton of boxes to check, but the goal isn’t to find a player who can check them all – that would be unrealistic. It’s really about how many boxes you can check; the role players who can check the most are usually considered among the best in the league. But the Cavs have a unique challenge: shooting is uniquely important out of that spot; if the fifth guy can make defenses guard him, good things will open up for the spacing-deficient Cavs frontcourt, as well as driving lanes for the guards. But defense is also crucial; not only is it what Cleveland has built the boat on, but Garland and Mitchell are two small guards who teams will try and pick on. Ideally, Cleveland would fill their last starting spot with a two-way player who fits what they need, but they’re stuck right now with a bunch of solid, but flawed, options.
Swingman Caris LeVert has had a nice season – and is shooting 39% on catch-and-shoot 3s, an important development for a player who has bizarrely struggled to shoot 3s off the catch at times in his career. LeVert has real talent with the ball in his hands, and his nearly four assists per game off the bench go to show that he is a willing ball-mover. LeVert has bought in on defense, too, using his plus length to his and the team’s advantage. LeVert is a good player, but he isn’t the perfect one next to Cleveland’s starters. I touched on his catch-and-shoot 3-point percentage; that he’s hitting those shots is encouraging, but he doesn’t shoot a lot of them, something you’d really want out of that spot. His style of play is also more ball-dominant than ball-moving, something that can (and does) really help as a sixth man, but there’s marginal value next to Cleveland’s starters, where he’d be at best third on the totem pole offensively. The Cavs have reportedly seen LeVert as a sixth man since acquiring him, and the reasons all make sense. He helps the Cavaliers, but not in this way.
The current starter at small forward is Okoro, the aforementioned former top five pick. Okoro entered the league as a defender, and nothing’s changed: his frame and strength, combined with his tenacity and real perimeter defensive talent, have turned him into one of the better wing defenders in the NBA. For a team that prides itself on defense, the fact that that Okoro hadn’t solidified his current spot in the starting lineup until midway through the season should be telling. The reason is that his jump-shooting – the skill everybody knew he needed the most work on upon entering the league – just hasn’t yet developed to the point where his defense can truly make him impossible to take off the floor. In 2022, Okoro became the textbook example amongst anyone around the league of a guy teams will dare to shoot every time, and his inability to make them pay just fed into it more. To his credit, he is taking and making more 3s than ever, shooting a career-high 36% this season. But that’s just about average, and defenders still leave him wide open on just about all of those shots, according to the NBA’s tracking data. That means that even though Okoro is hitting more 3s than ever, defenses still don’t care at all. That’s a real issue next to Cleveland’s starters, one that might render him unplayable in this role down the stretch of a series. It’s on Okoro to keep proving teams wrong to where they either shift their gameplan or lose; if he can’t, things might get dire.
Cleveland’s other options are similarly flawed. Cedi Osman theoretically fits the bill as a wing who can shoot and has the length to defend; his performance has fluctuated wildly all season, and the average hasn’t come out as great as you’d think if you watched him when he was rolling. That’s something of a leap of faith; Cleveland might not have the margin of error for it to work. Defensive specialist Lamar Stevens fits Cleveland’s hard-nosed, defensive identity to a T, but is a low-volume, low-percentage 3-point shooter – an untenable offensive skillset next to Allen and Mobley. Dean Wade might check the most boxes; he’s proven to be a great defensive fit in Cleveland – lineups with him at the 3 have been elite on defense this season, in a small sample – and takes a high volume of 3s. But he’s only hit 34% of them, and he’s never been a great shooter either. There is a chance Cleveland catches lightning in a bottle here; anything can happen in the playoffs. But this team has been searching amongst this group of players for two years now for an answer to this question; they haven’t found a convincing answer yet. These are the kinds of questions around the margins that separate teams down the stretch of the postseason. Cleveland will need to find their answer if they want to do anything real in the playoffs.
- I would be wrong if I didn’t mention the other most prominent part of Mitchell’s playoff legacy: his matador defense down the stretch of multiple playoff series, playing a role in the repeated failure of the Mitchell/Rudy Gobert era Jazz to break through in the Western Conference. There was the conference semifinal upset loss as the 1-seed (and best regular season record in the NBA) to the Los Angeles Clippers in 2021, who were missing Kawhi Leonard for the conclusion of the final two games of the series, both Clipper wins; if that didn’t end that era of Jazz basketball the first-round loss to the Dallas Mavericks in 2022, who were missing Luka Doncic for multiple games as well, did. Both series were marked by Utah’s perimeter defenders repeatedly getting broken down off the dribble, leading to ball movement sequences for open 3 after open 3. Gobert caught the brunt of the flack in the public eye as the three-time Defensive Player of the Year, but the Jazz’s perimeter defenders deserve a good share of the blame.
As that would imply, Mitchell wasn’t the only culprit. Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson and the rest of the Jazz’s perimeter defenders all played unacceptable defense multiple times, but Mitchell was among the primary culprits. Someone with such a long wingspan and such functionally elite athleticism shouldn’t be known as a bad defender, but Mitchell developed that reputation in Utah. This Cleveland team is not that Utah team; even though they had one of the best defenders of their generation, Utah’s identity was more than defense. In Cleveland, if you can’t guard, you can’t play. And, to his credit, Mitchell played much improved defense this season, having seemingly bought in to the Cavs’ defensive identity. He has a chance to prove this point moot; he certainly has the physical ability, and the Cavaliers are truly a defensive team first and foremost. But it would be irresponsible to just ignore Mitchell’s past failures on that end in big moments.
Lineup I Want To See
Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Cedi Osman, Dean Wade, Evan Mobley
Matchup Thoughts
First Round vs. NYK (5)
I think Cavs/Knicks has the potential to be one of the most fun series of the first round, even with Julius Randle projected to miss at least the first portion of it recovering from an ankle injury. The Cavs have an elite defense, but they aren’t great at stopping the two things that New York builds its offense around – offensive rebounding and free throws. The Knicks shoot a lot of 3s, while the Cavs are built to run teams off the line and towards the rim, where Allen and Mobley are waiting to contest or block any shot attempt – but where Mitchell Robinson and Isaiah Hartenstein are also waiting to scoop up any miss and put it back in. That push-and-pull will be key in determining whether or not Cleveland can shut off the Knicks’ faucet.
New York has defenders to throw on Mitchell and Garland, like Quentin Grimes and Immanuel Quickley, but both teams trend small in the backcourt, which helps Cleveland more in the net; Jalen Brunson is having an absolutely stellar season and the backcourt duel in this series projects to be loads of fun, but Mitchell and Garland are an elite NBA backcourt. New York doesn’t really have any way to punish the Cavs’ guards like other teams with bigger perimeter players.
Mobley looms large in this series; with or without Randle, he has the potential to break through and shift this series in Cleveland’s favor with his growing offensive game, and as a defensive rebounder in lineups next to Allen, where one big can contest the shot and the other can clean up the miss. He has a chance to make Cleveland simply too much for New York to handle.
I think we may be in store for some backcourt explosions offensively, and there’s the chance for some fantastic scoring duels between either of Mitchell or Garland and Brunson. Defense will ultimately determine this series, though, and the Cavaliers have been an elite defensive team all season long. That, combined with Randle likely missing time, would make me lean Cavs in a close series.
Second Round vs. MIL (1)
If they advance to the semifinals, they’re all but guaranteed to run into the Milwaukee Bucks, who might just be the best team in basketball. But the Cavs have something that no other team does – the size to actually match up against Milwaukee’s frontline of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez. In Mobley and Allen, Cleveland has two players with size, mobility and elite defensive motor, which is a challenge nobody else can throw at Milwaukee in these playoffs.
Mobley would be faced with the ultimate test of his rapid growth; Antetokounmpo is the game’s best player with the deadliest combination of size, speed, agility and power in perhaps the history of the league. And the Bucks have Jrue Holiday, who’d probably top the list of players any smart basketball person would want to throw on an All-NBA guard. With stout perimeter defenders up and down the roster in Wesley Matthews, Jevon Carter and Pat Connaughton, Mitchell and Garland would be seeing bodies all game. Both teams have the option of going small and running one big man at the center spot, but the Bucks have more specialized personnel and can weaponize it in a way that Cleveland’s roster just hasn’t yet.
It’s a longshot for Cleveland to take this one home, but I think they can at least show the Bucks something they won’t see again on their quest to a second title in three years. For a team making its first of what projects to be many playoff runs, that is a claim that should not be taken lightly. There’s a world in which Cleveland gets to where Milwaukee is now in just a few years – prohibitive favorites to win the title.
New York Knicks
Record: 47-35
Seed: 5
Opponent: Cleveland
Notable Team Stats (per Cleaning The Glass)
ORTG: 118.7 (2nd leaguewide)
DRTG: 115.3 (19th leaguewide)
Net Differential: +3.4 (7th leaguewide)
Opponent Rim FG%: 63.8% (4th leaguewide)
eFG%: 54.3% (20th leaguewide)
ORB%: 30.8% (2nd leaguewide)
FT Rate: 21.8 (9th leaguewide)
3PT Frequency: 36.2% (11th leaguewide)
3PT%: 35.8% (21st leaguewide)
The Good
- The Knicks have been an elite offensive team this season, despite not fitting the bill in many conventional ways. They shoot a lot of 3s, but they don’t make a lot of them, and their offense features heavy doses of isolation basketball from their two best players. And yet, they stand among the very best in the NBA in offensive rating this season. How? For starters, they never turn the ball over, which sets a baseline for the value you can get out of every possession. They also get to the free throw line a lot, which gets you a lot of easy points. And their isolations can actually be pretty fruitful. But most importantly, they are an elite offensive rebounding team, generating ludicrous amounts of second chance points. This is not the usual makeup of an elite offense, but the Knicks have leaned into all of it and found a ton of success. They are team Low Hanging Fruit on offense, and you won’t find another quite like it.
- The bench, propelled by Immanuel Quickley, has been among the league’s best this season. The addition of Josh Hart has catalyzed them; they’ve been a team-high 15.8 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court. That number won’t remain that high; he’s 11th on the team in minutes played. But Quickley, fourth in minutes, ranks third at +7.0 – the bench is real. Depth like Quickley, Hart and Isaiah Hartenstein is rare to find around the league. That depth alone has the potential to alter the outcome of playoff games, but the unique skillsets of each player give the Knicks a special boost.
Quickley’s been in the conversation for Sixth Man of the Year, and for good reason; while the numbers might not look like those of a typical candidate (14 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 assists per game), Quickley has been absolutely vital to the Knicks’ success this season. His tenacious defense, both on and off the ball, captains an elite defensive bench unit – the Knicks’ defensive rating spikes from below average to elite with Quickley on the court, and that’s not a coincidence. His offense is also vital, as the bench’s most reliable shot creator. His halfcourt game has improved dramatically since he entered the league, with a whole set of inside finishes now to go along with his patented floater. Beyond all of that, Quickley changes the energy of the game. Upon checking in, the Knicks assume a new identity, one of confidence, swagger, and joy. His energy is infectious; you can see it on his teammates’ faces. The ability to hit a different gear than the one your stars play at is an asset, and Quickley gives that to the Knicks.
Hart and Hartenstein, two different players at two different positions, give the Knicks the same thing – everything. Just watch how hard those two players fight on every possession, whether it’s Hart diving into the stands to save a loose ball or grabbing a defensive rebound and taking it coast-to-coast with one of the most athletic finishes you’ll see, or Hartenstein hammering opposing guards on screens or jockeying with anyone and everyone for position on the offensive glass. They assume Tom Thibodeau’s, New York’s, identity: they unapologetically play at 100 one hundred percent of the time. It helps that they’re both good players; Hart’s rebounding and driving and Hartenstein’s rim protection and occasional playmaking are both major pluses. Between the two of them and Quickley, the Knicks have a second team to go against any around the NBA.
- Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle have been a bona fide star duo this season. Randle returned to All-NBA form, averaging career-high scoring numbers while enjoying his most efficient season as a Knick, as well as nearing the league lead in rebounds. His style of play has morphed from his breakout 2020-21 campaign, refining his offensive game and not needing to do everything as he did then, which spelled the Knicks’ doom against the Hawks in the first round. He’s taking and making more 3s than ever, raining it down from above the break, and has eliminated a good amount of the difficult self-created looks he built the boat on in his first All-Star campaign. He also has far less playmaking responsibility; his assists are down from 2021, but that’s been healthy. He’s getting the ball in better places, with more specialized responsibilities once he catches it. The result has been the best version of Randle we’ve seen.
Attribute a good chunk of that – and a good chunk of credit for the Knicks’ turnaround – to the arrival of Brunson. He’s made anyone who had qualms about the contract look absolutely foolish. The heartbeat of the Knicks, he makes everything go, finding guys in the right spots (including Randle), and scoring with ease whenever the team needs an offensive jolt. His craftiness and strength going downhill combined with his basketball mind and unwavering confidence make him a nightmare to stay in front of, with a bevy of moves to get around or through you. Randle will likely miss a decent amount of their first round series as he recovers from an ankle injury, but the Knicks won’t be anything close to pushovers. Brunson will make sure of that.
- I mentioned the offensive rebounding earlier – it’s worth elaborating on. Between Mitchell Robinson, Hartenstein and Jericho Sims (who may see some action with Randle out), the Knicks’ big man room has been truly elite on the offensive glass all season long. The numbers bear it out: Per Cleaning The Glass, New York has a 31.8% offensive rebounding rate with Robinson on the court, which puts those lineups in the 91st percentile (minimum 100 possessions). With Hartenstein on the floor instead, it’s at 31.3%, the 90th percentile. And the sample is small (only 204 possessions), but units featuring Sims and Hartenstein have grabbed an absurd 38.9% of available offensive rebounds, placing those lineups in the 100th percentile.
Hart, one of the best rebounders for his size in the NBA, will also likely factor into this in the playoffs. The lineup data is noisy, but the Knicks have remained an elite offensive rebounding team in his minutes so far. The Knicks are playing a big team in the Cavaliers in the first round; if they advance, they’ll almost certainly run into another in the Milwaukee Bucks. The bigs have a big challenge ahead of them, but if the Knicks have demonstrated one elite skill all season, it’d be this.
- Quentin Grimes has developed in Year 2 into one of the best role players in the entire NBA. His game is a perfect complement to superior talent on both ends of the court, with rugged, intelligent defense and one of the best complementary offensive skillsets in basketball. At 38% from 3, he needs to be respected when he catches the ball from outside, but the thing about Grimes is that the threat of his shot opens up his true value. He is one of the best players in the league at driving closeouts, and he will do it. Close out on Grimes too hard, and he’s past you with his head down in a flash. He makes quick, firm decisions, reacting to how the defense plays him.
Why does this matter? As New York’s “fifth starter”, Knicks playoff opponents will likely stash their weakest defensive players on him to try and get away with having them on the floor. Grimes will sit and wait in the corner, but it’s not like other role players. He’s an instant threat off the catch every time he catches the ball, which is an absolute luxury next to players like Brunson, Randle and Quickley. They will always have a fallback one or two passes away – either a 3-point attempt from one of the team’s few true spacers or a drive that will open something else up for the team. Grimes’ ability to make plays within the offense, keeping possessions afloat with his pump-and-go game, gives him opportunity to be a series-changer in his role. He shouldn’t be played off the floor, either; his spacing and defense are too valuable. If anything, he’s primed for a potential breakout postseason.
The Bad
- The Knicks’ offensive strategy has worked scintillatingly well this season, but legitimate questions can be asked about its playoff viability. The Knicks are not a good shooting team at the rim or from behind the line, where they take a ton of shots. Their reliance on offensive rebounding, free throws and isolation to generate points might spell their doom against Cleveland or Milwaukee, two teams that start a pair of 7-footers and boast some of the league’s best interior defenses, while also having elite perimeter defensive talent (such as the Bucks’ Jrue Holiday and Jevon Carter, and the Cavs’ Isaac Okoro).
The Knicks will look to draw fouls; the Cavs and Bucks know this. The same goes for the offensive glass, where Milwaukee has consistently ranked among the league leaders while Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez have been together. We’ll only know how it goes once we watch it, but the margin for error is a lot smaller for the Knicks’ offense than a more traditional team of their caliber. Without reliable shooting to bank on outside of a couple of players, it will get easier and easier for defenses to shrink the floor against Brunson and Randle (assuming he plays at all) in isolation. In that case, it’s going to be on players like Grimes, Quickley, Hart - who’s been hot as fish grease since being traded but shot 30% from 3 in Portland - and RJ Barrett (more on him in a bit) to capitalize on the opportunities they get. The Knicks have proved doubters wrong all season, so it’s hard to truly bash them, but if an opponent can plug enough holes, New York’s offense could sputter to a halt.
- Back to RJ Barrett: It doesn’t really feel right putting him in “The Bad” category – 19.5 points per game as a starter on a playoff team certainly doesn’t qualify as “bad” – but Barrett’s season could best be described as uninspiring, if not disappointing. After a surge to close the 2022 campaign that saw Barrett post career-best offensive numbers as a rim-attacking, foul-drawing threat. This year has seen a lot of stagnation in most facets of Barrett’s game. He still gets to the rim and the line a ton, but his shooting from just about everywhere on the court – at the rim, in the midrange, and from 3 – is consistently below average; his free throw percentage, which has never been good, hasn’t meaningfully improved either, meaning he’s sacrificing easy points doing the thing he’s best at.
There were stretches this season where Barrett looked like he was getting it together and really blossoming into the star many envisioned out of the draft (like an 8-game stretch in December in which he averaged 27 points per game), followed by long stretches, that have come to define his season, where it felt like he was invisible, even if he was producing statistically. Barrett is still at his best with his head down, marching to the rim, and he’s legitimately good at it. But the lack of development in the midrange and as a passer (averaging a hard-to-believe 2.7 assists per game), his middling finishing efficiency, and his mediocre free throw shooting really mitigate the value he could bring.
Too often, though, Barrett feels like a non-factor. A well-below average 3-point shooter, defenses don’t respect him nearly as much as you would hope, which can muck things up for the rest of the team in a playoff series. All of this has played itself out in the lineup data this season: the Knicks have been an astonishing 12.6 points per 100 possessions better in minutes without Barrett than when he’s been on the floor, but their net rating with him on the floor is only slightly worse than Randle’s or Brunson’s. This means that Barrett hasn’t been a part of New York’s best lineups this season, as players like Quickley, Grimes and Hart have stepped in and performed in ways that, quite frankly, the team has needed more. I don’t want to come across as a hater; I don’t like being this negative about a player at all. But it makes sense for me to provide the context behind Barrett’s season here; he figures to play big minutes in any playoff series - and if he doesn’t, you’ll know the reasons why.
- Randle’s injury would have hurt any team, but his absence on the Knicks is especially felt. He had played in every game up to that point and averaged almost 36 minutes per game, meaning the Knicks haven’t had any experience playing without him this season. The list of players who will take a share of his minutes will assuredly include the man starting in his place: Obi Toppin, the 8th pick in the 2020 Draft who has, to this point in his career, served as Randle’s low-minute backup. There’s a lot to like about Toppin; his athleticism pops off the charts, and he plays as hard as you’ll find across the league. But at 33% from 3, teams won’t respect him beyond the arc, and his defense still leaves something to be desired. Toppin’s not a bad player, but this is a level of trust the Knicks have never put into Toppin before.
Perhaps we will see some of the aforementioned Jericho Sims, the reserve big man who, like Toppin, possesses eye-popping athleticism, but also a tantalizing skillset as a switch defender. If Sims can come in and make an impact, that would be amazing; it’s not completely out of the picture to see him make an impact in a playoff game. But that is asking a lot out of a player currently not in the rotation. Outside of that, the forward room is slim. Maybe the Knicks go small for stretches, playing Barrett or Hart at the 4 to unlock lineups with Brunson, Quickley and Grimes. There’s a chance they catch lightning in a bottle there; against the frontlines they will be up against, there’s also a chance those lineups get eaten alive. I say all of this to say that replacing Randle won’t be easy. A seemingly obvious statement – who has an easy time replacing their All-Star? – but the Knicks face a unique set of circumstances with their roster construction and season-long dependability on Randle that will surely be a challenge to overcome.
Lineup I Want To See
Jalen Brunson, Immanuel Quickley, Quentin Grimes, Josh Hart, Mitchell Robinson
Matchup Thoughts
First Round vs. CLE (4)
I think that even without Randle for at least the first portion of it, Cavaliers/Knicks has the potential to be a crazy series. The dynamism in the backcourts, with Jalen Brunson and Immanuel Quickley on one side, and Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland on the other, has potential to be great. The center battle will also be a fun one, as Jarrett Allen and Mitchell Robinson are two of the NBA’s premier rim protectors. The Cavs and Knicks also both run a traditional center on the court almost all of the time, so there won’t be a lot to worry about in terms of Robinson or Hartenstein being schemed off the court.
The fact that Cleveland is pretty small in the backcourt helps the Knicks, who feature two small guards heavily. They also have personnel in Grimes, Quickley and reserve guard Miles McBride to at the very least make life uncomfortable for the Cavs’ guards. Schematically, Cleveland might be able to get New York out of their rhythm offensively; they force a lot of turnovers, while New York has been a low-turnover team all season. But Cleveland also funnels shots towards the rim, where the Knicks’ offensive rebounders are always lying in wait. It’s going to be fascinating to see how it all goes down.
The difference-maker in this series may be Evan Mobley, whose rapid ascent into two-way stardom we are – and the Knicks are about to be – in the midst of. Without Randle, and with the biggest body on Allen, Mobley has the potential to go off at power forward, all whilst manning primary backup center duties. The one-big lineups, though, are pretty small positionally, and that might give the Knicks some advantages. The Cavs have been middle of the pack all season in both defensive rebound rate and opponent free throw rate, the two categories the Knicks’ offense is most built around.
Now, Cleveland is also an elite defensive team, so there’s a chance they lock in and figure out how to stop the Knicks’ attack. And I haven’t gone into depth at all about either Mitchell or Garland, two surefire stars who play fantastic off each other – and Mitchell is one of the best postseason performers in NBA history. But there are enough positives to believe the Knicks can at the very least make this a series.
Second Round vs. MIL (1)
The Bucks are a different story. The team with the NBA’s best record, featuring the NBA’s best player, and what many would reasonably call the NBA’s best defense, including the NBA’s best perimeter defender and perhaps the NBA’s Defensive Player of the Year. Oh, and they allow the second fewest offensive rebounds and free throws out of any team in the NBA. This one is rough, no matter how you slice it. The Bucks’ imposing frontcourt rotation of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis is humongous and menacing at the rim, not just for prospective shooters, but for players trying to get into offensive rebounding position. The Bucks fundamentally elite defense – no offensive rebounds, no free throws – is likely to give the Knicks major trouble.
There’s also the question of which Knick guards Antetokounmpo; Randle fits the bill most cleanly, but that’s tiring, and opens up the possibility of Randle picking up fouls. Put Robinson on him and you’ve given Lopez, the defensive savant who made an All-Star team as a low-post monster, a mismatch at the rim that the Bucks will almost certainly exploit. Holiday guarding Brunson is also just about as much of a worst-case scenario for New York; someone who can match Brunson’s strength, speed and smarts at an all-time level. It’s hard to find a world in which New York wins this series, but that’s life when you go up against the prohibitive title favorites. This season should be considered a smashing success; that we’re even talking about these two teams in the same breath is evidence enough.
Phoenix Suns
Record: 45-37
Seed: 4
Opponent: LA Clippers
Notable Team Stats (per Cleaning The Glass)
ORTG: 115.1 (17th leaguewide)
DRTG: 113.8 (9th leaguewide)
Net Differential: +1.3 (12th leaguewide)
Opponent eFG%: 53.6% (5th leaguewide)
Opponent FT Rate: 23.7 (30th leaguewide)
Midrange Shot Frequency: 40.4% (1st leaguewide)
Rim Shot Frequency: 25.9% (30th leaguewide)
FT Rate: 19.0 (27th leaguewide)
The Good
- The team that represented the Western Conference in the 2021 Finals and held the best record in the entire NBA during the 2021-22 regular season just added Kevin Durant. Need I say more? (I will anyway). The Suns – leading the league in midrange jumpshot frequency for the second consecutive season – are entering the playoffs incorporating a guy averaging 29 points per game while shooting 56% from the field, 40% from 3, and 91% from the free-throw line. For those not in the know, that puts Durant’s season in the record books as a vaunted 50/40/90 campaign – a feat achieved by nine players in the history of the league before this season. One of those nine, believe it or not, was Durant, and so he joins Larry Bird (twice) and Steve Nash (four times) as the only repeat performers.
It gets wilder – Durant’s 56% FG% mark is by far the highest ever for a 50/40/90 season. That is fueled by his 2-point shooting, which sits at an incomprehensible 61%, despite the fact that 60 percent of Durant’s shots come from the midrange. I want to re-emphasize all of this. Durant – the thirteen-time All-Star, four-time scoring leader, league MVP and two-time NBA Champion – is having perhaps the best offensive season of his career at 34 years of age, putting up efficiency numbers never before seen amongst a crowd of seasons immortalized for being among the most efficient ever, all while absolutely dominating from the area of the court that the analytics revolution has shown to be the hardest spot to extract efficient offense from. It just doesn’t make any sense.
The Suns have questions, and the Western Conference projects to be the bloodbath to end all bloodbaths. But I keep coming back to it – they have Kevin Durant too. He has proven to be the easiest offensive fit of any superstar in the history of the league multiple times over now with each move to a new team, but defensively, Durant fits into what the Suns do like a glove as well. He has long been one of the NBA’s most underrated defenders, able to use his immense length to provide ample rim protection as a helper, which is a tad unfair when you consider that Phoenix already has a 7-foot-tall plus defender in the middle in Deandre Ayton. The two-way versatility and impact that Durant has brought throughout his career will help the Suns immensely. This is one of the greatest players ever, playing some of his greatest basketball ever. That fact alone is powerful enough to shift the entire title race.
- I outlined the Suns’ resume over the last 2 seasons above, and it’s important that the main piece of that success is discussed here too. Devin Booker has taken his game to an entirely different level over the past few seasons, reaching the potential that so many Suns fans insisted he had while he developed on some of the worst teams in the league. Booker’s throwback style of perimeter scoring dominance is unlike that of just about any prominent guard around the league, and he’s turned into one of the most unstoppable scorers in the league. The Suns with Booker, Chris Paul and Ayton have always been Team Midrange, and Booker fits the bill to a tee – over half of his shots come from the midrange, and he is hitting over half of them, utterly elite marks. If you’re tempted to compare those numbers with what Durant’s shooting – just above 60% on both of those metrics – don’t; the takeaway here is that two of the game’s deadliest midrange scorers of this era are playing scintillatingly efficient basketball together, and that’s a problem.
Booker could somewhat accurately be described as the Midrange Steph Curry, at least stylistically. I say this because both of them do a bulk of their work off the ball, which puts the defense in a conundrum it’s not used to handling in this heliocentric, guard-dominant NBA. Booker will run off of screens and pindowns ready to catch, turn and fire regardless of how close his defender is or how well they may close out; his shotmaking is art when he has it going. And like Curry, the fact that Booker is a constant threat to find the ball and score has an immense impact on the Suns’ offense; they have been 12 points per 100 possessions better offensively with Booker on the court than without, and that includes all of the games Booker missed this season due to injury. That level of impact is staggering; that is the kind of offensive player Booker has become.
Booker being such a threat without the ball in his hands makes defending actions involving him and Durant an impossible cover; there are two five-alarm fires on the court at all times when they share the floor. That’s a recipe for defensive miscues and mistakes which, if they don’t lead to a shot for Booker or Durant, will probably lead to an even better shot for one of their teammates. Ayton has already feasted on a ton of wide open dunks and layups with Durant and Booker on the floor; that should extend to open three-pointers in the playoffs as well. In the playoffs, having one player with that level of impact is the ultimate luxury. Phoenix has two; that should strike primal fear into any and all of their playoff opponents. For a team that generally struggles to get shots at the rim, the importance of these opportunities is magnified.
- Giving up Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson for Durant may be a move the Suns (and just about everybody with a brain) would do again ten times out of ten, but the fact remains that they shipped out two premier role players at the most important positions in the NBA – ones that finished as finalists for Defensive Player of the Year and Sixth Man of the Year, respectively, last season. Losing depth like that is a big deal, but Phoenix banked on sheer star power, and that the rest of the role players on the roster would be enough. What’s left is certainly an ensemble cast, but there’s a blend of continuity and versatility that holds intrigue nonetheless.
Phoenix’s wing corps around Booker and Durant includes a couple of familiar faces: Torrey Craig, who’s been on this team for both playoff runs of this era and provides hard-nosed on-ball defense; plus, he’s shooting nearly 40% from three this season on decent volume. And TJ Warren’s back, arriving from Brooklyn with Durant after spending the beginning of his career with the Suns. Warren has hardly played over the last 3 seasons, but at his best he provides this roster with a level of shotmaking and offensive gusto not present across the rest of the supporting cast. Neither player has filled the fifth starting spot around Paul, Booker, Durant and Ayton, though – that honor would go to Josh Okogie, the former Minnesota Timberwolf who has found a home in Phoenix. Okogie helps the Suns just like the Suns help Okogie; the energy at which he plays, particularly on the defensive end, as well as his incredible rebounding ability for someone so small (Okogie averages 9 rebounds per 100 possessions despite being listed at 6’4) are a boon for the Suns; and while Okogie is a willing ball-mover, he’s always been a low-volume, low-accuracy three-point shooter, but that matters less when playing next to threats such as Booker and Durant. The Suns’ best lineups can cover for Okogie’s weaknesses, and Okogie’s strengths give the Suns a shot in the arm.
Phoenix has several options in the backcourt behind Booker and Paul, as well as multiple options behind Ayton at center. Cameron Payne, Landry Shamet and Terrence Ross are all flawed players, but they all provide at least theoretical floor spacing, and defenses will have to respect them if they start to let it fly. Behind Ayton, the Suns can turn to Jock Landale or Bismack Biyombo depending on the matchup – Biyombo for defense, Landale for offense. The fact they can’t get both out of one player isn’t amazing, but having the ability to press multiple buttons is an objective plus. The same can be said for Payne, Shamet and Ross – the Suns don’t need all three to be great, just good enough between them. That means moving the ball, competing on defense, assuming secondary or tertiary offensive responsibilities when one or both of Booker and Paul are on the bench, and most importantly, making their shots. The Suns might not be loaded with high quality NBA players well down their bench like some other title contenders, but they might only need what they have. As far as supporting casts go, they could have done much worse.
The Bad
- Any discussion of the 2023 Phoenix Suns, especially when compared to the past two iterations of the team, cannot reasonably happen without a proper discussion of Chris Paul. The soon-to-be 38-year-old was clearly not the player the Suns have had for the last two years, nor the one we’ve watched carve out a Hall of Fame career, at the start of the season. While he has gotten better as the season’s gone on, it has become clear that expecting him to be the Point God just isn’t reasonable anymore. That’s also not really an unfair thing to say; Paul being as good as he’s been to this point in his career as a 6-foot guard was an anomaly. Fortunately, Paul is now a distinct third on the pecking order, behind Durant and Booker. Easing his responsibilities comes naturally with a regression in role.
Paul’s shot profile resembles that of Booker and Durant – Team Midrange! – but the largest difference is the frequency at which he attacks the basket. Five percent of Paul’s shots have come at the basket this season, and he’s only converting 46% of those looks – by far the worst mark of his career. In fact, it’s just the fifth time in Paul’s career that he’s shot under 60% at the rim. As a more complementary player now, that shot profile isn’t exactly the healthiest with regards to lineup composition; next to two star midrange scorers and a jump hook-happy center, a point guard who takes a high volume of long 2s and nearly no layups means that rim pressure may be sorely lacking. Paul’s percentages from everywhere in the midrange are down this season too, which means that there are diminishing returns on those shots, especially relative to a guard who puts his head down and finishes a high percentage of his layups. An easy – if incomplete – remedy is for Paul to up his three-point volume, something that he’s done since Durant’s arrival. His seven-three performance in the starting five’s last regular season game together should be encouraging – Paul was more willing to fire 3s off the catch than you’ve almost ever seen him.
That shift would represent a gigantic deviation from the shot profile and style of play that Paul has brought to the table for nearly two decades. It’s a big ask of him, and not all stars can adapt in these ways as they age. Paul will still bring his otherworldly basketball IQ to the court every night and create opportunities for his teammates in his classic Paul way – like his midrange jumpers, the returns on those benefits are diminishing. Paul’s play for Phoenix is going to be vital for them if they are to reach the heights they clearly want to. That’s putting a lot on the shoulders of a guy who, for the first time in his career, finally looks like he might not be able to carry it.
- The Paul issue exists on its own, but it’s also a partial microcosm of one of Phoenix’s biggest questions, one that represents a culture war within the basketball community. The Suns take the most midrange jumpshots in the NBA, the least shots at the rim in the NBA, and are dead in the middle in three-point frequency. Even that requires context; they rank among the league leaders in corner threes attempted, but take among the fewest above the break. That they take a lot of corner 3s is nice, and you’d expect a team so proficient in the midrange to be able to hit the shortest kind of three in basketball – they’re among the best in the NBA. But all of this equals out to a below average offense. I mentioned earlier how some of that can be attributed to Booker missing a chunk of the season, but the fact that their offense nosedived to the extent it did without him is troubling.
There is the ideological slant to all of this, too; to some, the Suns represent a middle finger to the analytics movement, a team that builds the boat out of long twos, the taboo word in basketball over the last half-decade. You can’t knock the success they’ve found with their formula, either – a Finals nod followed by 64 wins is elite stuff. Those more attuned to the analytical movement, however, don’t express as much concern about the midrange volume frequency – analytics doesn’t just mean “fewer twos, more threes”; rather, they’re about finding the ways in which a player is most efficient. And on a team featuring Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, and now Kevin Durant, those shots are going to go in at a level that justifies the rate at which they’re taken. There is an interesting juxtaposition around the league with the Suns, wherein many defenses are built around trying to make their opponent shoot as many long twos as they can. It’s mathematically much harder to build an offense around shots you get two points for and hit at a much lower rate than if you were closer to the basket – or behind the three-point line, where you gain an extra point per make. This is the crux of the analytics movement in the NBA: the great players will always do what makes them great; for everyone else, your role is to help make your team’s offense as efficient as possible with threes and shots at the rim.
It’s ironic, then, that when people mention analytics in bad faith, they tend to talk exclusively about three-pointers, when any analytic mind would tell you in a heartbeat that the rim is the most efficient source of offense in basketball. That’s where the Suns run into analytic trouble – they just do not get there at all. Phoenix can’t be faulted for tailoring their offense around their star talent, but the tendencies of that collective talent when playing together have exposed this pretty important hole. Teams know the Suns aren’t looking to get to the basket, so they’ll start loading up on Booker, Paul and Durant at every opportunity in the midrange. The rate and percentage at which they hit corner threes is a nice boost in that regard; that’s a way the Suns can get easy, efficient offense in a scheme not built for that (at least for the average NBA player).
Phoenix can only get two points out of every midranger, the exact same amount as a layup; layups are a much, much easier shot to make. From a math perspective, the Suns are constantly leaving food on the table with their shot profile. That the Suns ranked among the worst teams in the league at getting to the free throw line – and the worst at sending opponents there – this season doesn’t ease any concern about this, either. It is important to contextualize, once again: Kevin Durant is hitting 61% of his two-pointers while taking 60% of his shots from the midrange. If there ever was a player that could make this math work, it’s him right now. Booker isn’t far behind. But the Suns’ inability as a team, up and down the roster, to get to the rim and pressure the defense on drives with consistency and force is a pretty major issue that could doom their offense against great playoff defenses.
- This entire section has been about what has transpired strictly on the basketball court for Phoenix this season, but it cannot be lost on anybody that Durant will have played eight games with the Suns before they take the court for the playoffs. Eight. It’s an absolutely miniscule number, and even though the Suns haven’t lost with Durant in the lineup yet, any sane person would agree that a team competing for a championship only playing in eight games with its best player is concerning. Durant has familiarity with Paul and Booker from Team USA, as well as head coach Monty Williams from Durant’s final year in Oklahoma City, where Willaims was associate head coach (Williams and Durant also won an Olympic gold medal together that summer). All of those are nice; none of them make up for lost time.
The Suns will also be embarking on this run without Bridges or Johnson, both of whom have made a gigantic impact on this team over the last two playoff runs. It’s clear that this team’s ceiling was higher than those of which Bridges and Johnson were a part; they’re also without Jae Crowder, their starting power forward during the rest of this run. Phoenix should rightfully believe they can win the title. Their lack of continuity, both this season and compared to this core’s playoff history, will be actively working against them in a Western Conference that will allow nearly zero margin for error.
Lineup I Want To See
Devin Booker, Terrence Ross, TJ Warren, Kevin Durant, Deandre Ayton
Matchup Thoughts
First Round vs. LAC (5)
As is a theme in the Western Conference this season, the Suns’ first-round matchup is a bloodbath. Two teams with very clear mandates to win the championship; one will go home without a playoff series win. The stakes here, organizationally and competitively, are huge. There is a chance the outcome of this series leads to major changes within the team that loses – the stakes here cannot be understated. It is also a matchup featuring Kevin Durant and Kawhi Leonard, two of the league’s (truly) greatest ever postseason performers. We can expect those two to play at the elite level we’ve grown accustomed to from them – the presence of Booker, Paul and Ayton, as well as more reliable shooters, will make Durant’s life much easier than it was during his 2022 playoff sweep at the hands of the Celtics as a member of the Nets, when he was shown bodies at literally every available opportunity as Boston morphed almost its entire defense around his presence.
This, of course, makes the presence of the secondary stars vital. Devin Booker and Paul George represent a rematch of the 2021 Western Conference Finals between these two teams, in which Leonard (torn ACL) and Durant (Brooklyn Net) both didn’t play. Both teams have changed quite a bit since that series, but the duel between Booker and Paul – who each showed out at a historic level – will surely hang over the heads of both sides. George’s health obviously matters a ton; even though Leonard is a one-man wrecking crew, a superhuman Terminator in the postseason, he’s going to need help against the sheer quantity of high-level players the Suns will throw out between Durant, Booker, Ayton and Paul. For his part, Booker is having the best season of his career. Because he played in so few games and the Suns weren’t the best team in the NBA by a wide margin this regular season he probably won’t get any regular season awards, but he is absolutely a better player in 2023 than 2022, when he was deservedly named to the All-NBA First Team (and 2021, when he beat these Clippers in the conference finals – including a 40-point triple double in a Game 1 win). As star duos go, the Suns have a pretty stacked deck.
Both teams have quality depth at the big man position, and while both are smaller teams in the sense that they only run one true big man on the court at almost all times, they have both reliably had a center on the floor most of the time as presently constructed. For the Suns, it’s Ayton and Landale/Biyombo. For the Clippers, it’s Ivica Zubac and Mason Plumlee. Ayton’s performance and ability to capitalize on the degree to which Booker and Durant can pull those bigs away from the paint is going to matter; the Suns could use as many quality looks at the rim as possible.
The Clippers’ role players can play a very important role here. New starting point guard Russell Westbrook likely won’t be guarded by Chris Paul, as the Point God might not be able to handle Westbrook’s constant downhill attack and footspeed at his age. Paul will instead probably be guarding players like Marcus Morris Sr. or Nicolas Batum, whose roles on offense largely involves standing in the corner and shooting 3s, but are each skilled enough to do more. Clippers coach Ty Lue is among the league’s very best and most proactive when it comes to making playoff adjustments, so watching for the ways in which they could attack Paul on defense is worthwhile.
The Clippers’ bevy of shooters have a chance to shift this series, as they have multiple perimeter options in Eric Gordon and Bones Hyland that can – and will – take and make deep threes within the constructs of an offense, as well as the NBA’s leading scorer off the bench in Norman Powell. In today’s NBA, space is everything, and the more you can create, the more you can do as an offense. Shooting threats open up lanes and shots for Powell, George and Leonard inside the arc, which makes tough-to-guard players like Powell even tougher, and impossible-to-guard ones like Leonard a nightmare. The Suns know this too – part of what makes them so deadly in the midrange is the need to guard players like Durant and Booker from well beyond the arc, opening up the middle of the floor for easier looks. It’s the same kind of machine; just with different buttons.
Both teams shoot a similar percentage of their shots from behind the arc, and neither shoot a particularly high amount from above the break. It is those shots, though – the above the break threes, the farthest shot from the basket – that could dictate the offensive flow for both of these teams throughout the series. The Suns’ defenders will have their work cut out for them, needing to cover for all of the Clippers’ shooting while also keying in on Leonard and George (as an aside that really means nothing – boy could the Suns use Mikal Bridges in this series). Neither of these teams has the benefit of continuity on their side, either, so not much of a discernable advantage can be given there The Suns have played eight games with Durant, while the Clippers’ history of missing players due to rest and injury over the course of the last four regular seasons is well-documented on top of the fact they, too, added a former MVP from the Oklahoma City Thunder midway through the year. All in all, with George’s health (and more importantly, ability to play at peak level upon returning) an uncertainty and the level at which Durant and Booker have played this season, I think I would favor Phoenix in this one, but I don’t feel great about it. Leonard looks every bit the decimator of worlds we witnessed the last time we saw him on this stage, and the Clippers have to be as motivated as any team in the NBA to win the title – they have to be.
Second Round vs. DEN (1)
Though nothing is guaranteed in this Western Conference, the Suns’ most likely conference semifinal opponent is still the number one seeded Denver Nuggets, led by two-time league MVP Nikola Jokic and featuring a healthy core of Jokic, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon that’s taking the floor together in a playoff game for the first time ever. Gordon was acquired at the 2021 trade deadline from the Orlando Magic, shortly before Murray tore his ACL and missed the rest of 2021 and all of 2022, and Porter has only been a major player in one Nuggets run – in 2021, his first season as a starter, before playing in nine games last season with a back injury. I’m contextualizing Denver like this to underscore the stakes for this group, because they are talked about far less than other teams in the West’s gauntlet – including Phoenix. This run has been years in the waiting; that they hold homecourt through the conference finals is a boon, but these factors combine to carry a lot of pressure, too – see what happened to Phoenix after their semifinal loss to Dallas last year, or Toronto’s embarrassing sweep at the hands of the Cavaliers in 2018. Both prompted major, major changes to the very foundation of those franchises. The likelihood that happens in Denver is much lower, but it underscores how motivated the Nuggets have to be right now. The stakes in the West are high across the board.
In terms of on-court performance, the biggest advantage that Phoenix has is Denver’s deficiencies defensively. While they’ve managed stretches of good-to-great defense several times during the regular seasons of the Jokic era, the style of defense they play around Jokic – with him at the level of screens, and defenders rotating around the court to help as Jokic recovers – has a very slim margin for error, and Denver’s defenders are either subpar, small, or some combination of both nearly across the board. Aaron Gordon and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are the only major plus defenders in the rotation, when factoring in on- and off-ball defense, as well as size and switchability. Denver’s other defenders, like Bruce Brown, are smaller than you would like – do you really want him switched onto Kevin Durant? All of this favors Phoenix, and the horsepower of their offense is going to be a tough task for Denver’s defenders.
Even if the Suns are able to score, there’s still the issue of guarding Denver. With Jokic leading the way, that is never going to be an easy task. Ayton is the X-factor here; if he can guard Jokic one-on-one and survive, the life for the rest of Phoenix’s defenders gets a lot easier. Obviously, it’s one thing to talk about guarding Jokic and another thing entirely to go out and do it, but Ayton’s performance against Jokic during their 2021 conference semifinal series – a Phoenix sweep. The Nuggets were missing their starting backcourt from the regular season – Murray and Will Barton – while the Suns were fully healthy, and Durant wasn’t yet in the picture, so not a lot can be taken away from that series when projecting this one. But Ayton guarded Jokic as well as you’ll see around the league, able to hold his own enough to shut down Denver’s incomplete attack. Phoenix has to be banking on a repeat performance.
Jamal Murray looms as the ultimate X-factor in this series – and perhaps the Western Conference. He had his ups and downs while reacclimating his body and his game after over a year on the sidelines, but if there’s one thing Murray’s demonstrated over the course of his career, it’s that he shows up for the moment- and delivers. Murray’s two-man game with Jokic is, at its best, an unstoppable harmony of offensive talent, and at his apex, he is one of the deadliest offensive players in the league. The Suns’ options to throw on him are solid, if slightly inspiring – can a perimeter defensive corps of Josh Okogie, Torrey Craig, Damion Lee and Booker do the job? Cameron Payne, Landry Shamet and Terrence Ross aren’t exactly known for their defensive prowess, either, and the Nuggets are smart enough to target them relentlessly if they feel they can. This is where Okogie can really make his mark in the series, and on the Suns as a team. If he is up to task and gives Murray issues, his spot in the starting lineup is justified – and secure. The Suns will have unlocked a go-to, likely unstoppable five-man lineup. But again – that’s much easier said than done.
There is no way to accurately predict the outcome of this series. There’s too much on the line for too many involved for this series to end up that simple. Denver is very unlikely to just no-show on defense, in spite of their deficiencies. But when comparing the rosters, schemes and individual matchups, in my gut I lean Phoenix in the end. Neither team is particularly deep, and that helps the team with the most star power. That’s the Suns, and combined with the fact that Denver’s biggest questions are on the defensive end of the floor against a team with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, I predict a close Suns win, in six or seven games.
Los Angeles Clippers
Record: 44-38
Seed: 5
Opponent: Phoenix
Notable Team Stats (per Cleaning The Glass)
ORTG: 114.4 (22nd leaguewide)
DRTG: 114.8 (18th leaguewide)
Net Differential: -0.3 (21st leaguewide)
Opponent ORB%: 25.8% (8th leaguewide)
Opponent FT Rate: 19.4 (5th leaguewide)
3PT Frequency: 35.6% (12th leaguewide)
3PT%: 38.4% (4th leaguewide)
The Good
- For a wide variety of reasons, ranging from superstar injury management to significant roster changes after the trade deadline, the Clippers’ statistical profile belies their competence as a team – and legitimate aspirations to compete for a championship. One only needs to take a look at the roster the Clippers have built to realize that.
Around their superstar tandem in Kawhi Leonard and Paul George – two surefire Hall of Fame players – the Clippers have put together a team built on two-way versatility. There are a number of new faces that weren’t in town for the Clippers’ 2021 playoff run – which saw them reach their first Conference Finals in 51 seasons of existence, and possibly could have ended in a championship, had Leonard not torn his ACL in the conference semifinals. What is consistent, though, between the two iterations is depth – specifically, depth that enables head coach Tyronn Lue to press as many different buttons as he may need to over the course of a playoff series.
- Center Ivica Zubac has given the Clippers everything they could have possibly asked of him and more, having assumed the starting role in the middle for most of his Clippers tenure since they acquired him at the 2019 trade deadline. He put up career scoring numbers and averaged a fraction of a decimal below a double-double this season (seriously – 9.9 rebounds per game), and appeared in 76 of the team’s 82 games – third most on the team, and the most as a starter. Zubac has been a rare constant for the Clips – his screening, inside finishing and rim protection have all been unsung ingredients to LA’s success over the duration of his tenure. Appreciate Zubac. For the first part of the season, though, Zu was the only NBA-caliber center on the roster, hamstringing Lue’s rotations and forcing them to play small for long stretches of games. That concern is gone, at least as it pertains to optionality, with the addition of Mason Plumlee. Plumlee – enjoying the best statistical season of his career in Charlotte before joining the Clippers – provides ample benefits in his minutes with hard screens, great finishing around the rim (he’s shooting over 72% from the field with Los Angeles), and advanced passing vision for his size. He was one of the best backup centers in the NBA not all that long ago when he played behind Nikola Jokic in Denver. Plumlee, like every player, has flaws. There will be matchups that won’t favor him. Lue doesn’t have to play him big minutes in the playoffs. That he can is a luxury that makes these Clippers deadlier.
Now, to the meat – and the reason the Clippers didn’t have anyone to back up Zubac for so long: this team is stacked to the nines on the wing. LA’s depth chart is full of wings across all five positions, and Lue has the ability to mismatch any combination of them if he feels the moment dictates it. It helps – considerably – that many of these players have proven their versatility in high leverage moments throughout their careers. Drafted into the league as a lanky, tweener wing in 2008, Nicolas Batum has been everything for the Clippers in three seasons, primarily as a power forward or center. Long considered one of the league’s most complete and versatile defenders – him being one of 13 players in NBA history to put up a 5x5 game (five or more points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks) in 2013, as well as the massive contract he received from the Charlotte Hornets a couple of years later, should be evidence enough. His rim protection is crucial for the Clippers’ small lineups to survive on defense; that he can switch actions involving all kinds of players is a further luxury.
The Clippers also have Marcus Morris, the starting power forward for most of this run. Morris is having his least productive season with Los Angeles, but that could have been reasonably predicted – alongside the rest of LA’s firepower and at 33 years old, his role on the team isn’t what it once was. That doesn’t mean he isn’t still effective. Morris’ shot creation as a secondary (and often tertiary) offensive piece can bail the Clippers out of bad offensive possessions, as well as open the door for more potential mismatches that defenses need to account for. And, while not quite as laterally mobile or freakishly long as Batum, he offers some switchability and hard-nosed intensity on defense for a team that can sometimes struggle with its on-court identity.
Above, I’ve now outlined four different options that Lue can use at the center spot, two of which entered the NBA as combo forwards. I have yet to even mention Robert Covington, whom the Clippers acquired – and subsequently extended – last season, but has spent much of this one riding the bench. That isn’t necessarily a knock on Covington, who was the only player in the NBA to accumulate over 90 steals and 90 blocks in 2021-22; rather, it underscores the Clips’ immense depth at this spot. Covington made the All-Defensive First Team in 2018 as Philadelphia’s starting small forward; he was the Houston Rockets’ starting center by the playoffs in 2020, averaging nearly 2.5 blocks per game in that role. That versatility is exceedingly rare around the league, and Lue has him as a trump card. None of this, by the way, mentions the possibility of lineups with Leonard or George at power forward, two forward-sized wings with immense defensive skill in their own right.
- I also have yet to mention any players that actually play the wing positions for Los Angeles, despite citing three traditional wings as options the Clippers can go to at center. I would be remiss if I didn’t begin this section with Terance Mann, LA’s glue guy in the backcourt. A natural small forward, Mann has moonlit at point guard for long stretches this season, and while the best version of Mann is one that plays off of his teammates rather than create for them, he didn’t look completely out of his depth. Mann has also proven his mettle in the postseason, playing a key role in LA’s 2021 conference finals run – and nearly singlehandedly breaking up the Rudy Gobert/Donovan Mitchell Utah Jazz as we knew them with some really impactful corner threes. He isn’t just a corner shooter, though – far from it, in fact. Mann is a preeminent connective piece, consistently making the right play for his team, doing whatever the moment calls for: driving closeouts and either drawing in the defense for a kick to an open shooter, or finishing at the rim, where he’s made 72% of his shots on high volume; making the extra pass within the flow of the offense; setting a screen and making himself available to catch and keep the flow going; handling the ball in transition to create easy opportunities. Mann is the Clippers’ Swiss Army Knife on a team full of Swiss Army Knives.
At the trade deadline, the Clippers gave themselves even more ammo for this positionless(? hyper-multipositional?) team construct by adding longtime Houston Rocket Eric Gordon. Gordon, as a member of multiple title-contending teams with the Rockets – including the 2020 run with Covington – has displayed a number of the traits that the Clippers clearly covet out of their perimeter positions, with some unique boosts too. Gordon is listed at 6’4, but you watch him play and that’s a little surprising; his stout frame and positional strength made him one of the NBA’s more underrated defenders during his tenure in Houston (at least the competitive part of it), and he’s very comfortable switching onto larger wings and forwards. Offensively, he has always used that strength well barrelling to the rim; Gordon coming at defenders downhill is still something opposing defenses respect. Even more than that, though, teams respect him from behind the line; this is where Gordon really opens options up for LA. Gordon is one of the most prolific shooters in the history of the league (currently in the top 20 all-time in made three-pointers), and he will often spot up several feet behind the line in simple halfcourt sets. His range has been well-established over the years, and teams have always had to respect him, even when he’s spaced so far out. This opens up multitudes of opportunities for the rest of the Clippers’ offense, who can leverage all the space created by Gordon pulling his defender so far from the hoop, both in terms of set plays and beating rotations with ball movement – it takes longer to cover more ground on defense.
This would be a good time to mention that the Clippers, on top of everything outlined above, have the NBA’s leading bench scorer. Norman Powell has been largely lights out for the Clippers since joining the team midway through last season. The attention he draws as an offensive player is unfair; when fully healthy, Clippers opponents will have to deal with at least one – and usually two – of Leonard, George, and Powell, who’s averaged 18 points per game over his last three seasons. Powell is a jolt of offense whose gameplan revolves around getting to the rim, collapsing defenses for open shots or simply torching them himself. And at 40% from three, Powell has to be respected off the ball as a floor spacer. With all of the Clippers’ depth and role interchangeability, Powell’s is simple: get buckets. This is the kind of quality depth piece teams clamor for; he is the sixth Clippers reserve I’ve touched on here.
My point, in describing all of these Clippers role players and the things they bring to the table, is to underscore just how versatile this team can be. Around one of the most talented wing duos in league history, Los Angeles has stocked up on players that can guard multiple positions, operate within the constructs of an offense, fill multiple roles, and who provide consistent value offensively, either with their shooting or scoring ability. With a proven, championship-caliber coach in Lue – who also ranks among the league’s very most creative when it comes to making adjustments throughout a playoff series – the Clippers have the ability (at least theoretically) to match up with whatever lineups the opposition tries to run. If they need to go small, they have a plethora of wing-sized players to run with Batum, Morris or Covington at the five; all three of those players can also be used at power forward next to Zubac or Plumlee if the Clips feel they need size. Almost no matter what, though, the Clippers can stack the deck with high-level shooting. Boston can still hold the claim of the deepest team in the NBA; their season-long cohesion has made their second unit even deadlier, while LA underwent a minor roster overhaul on the back end halfway through the year. There is a formula here, a blueprint for a champion. There are reasons (which I will get to later, and which are absolutely significant) to believe this team won’t win the title; there is no guarantee they win a playoff series. If they do, it’s because they can press any and every button they need to.
- This team also has Russell Westbrook! He’s been good – and important – for the Clippers since joining them for the last quarter of the regular season. The statistical sample size of his minutes with the team is too small to really take that much away from them, but the impact he’s had on the Clippers is felt. One of the most terrifying downhill threats in NBA history in his prime, Westbrook still commands help on his drives – which, when surrounded by the sheer amount of shooting the Clippers have, is a recipe for offensive success. He also injects much-appreciated pace into this offense; the Clippers have been one of the slower teams in the league this season. It’s not terribly hard to envision the ways Westbrook could help the Clippers win playoff games; this roster, with all of its shooting, complements Westbrook’s game much better than the Lakers of the last two years, and vice versa.
What also helps is that Westbrook genuinely fills an area of need. A persistent (and not always warranted) criticism of the Leonard/George era Clippers has been the lack of point guard play on the roster. They tried addressing that over the summer with the addition of John Wall, to go along with the incumbent Reggie Jackson. That didn’t work; both were shipped away at the trade deadline, opening the door for Westbrook. He provides many of the theoretical benefits Wall did in terms of his ability to read the floor and speed up parts of games, but the fit has proven much smoother, in a small sample. Time will tell if adding Westbrook was the right decision for the Clippers, but to this point it’s undeniably gone better than many in and around the media expected or anticipated.
- If it feels like I haven’t touched a lot on the Clippers’ superstars, well, it’s because I haven’t. George is enjoying a nice season; nothing spectacular relative to his standards, but nothing to scoff at either. The reason I waited this long to get to this part was to give you, the reader, a sense of the kind of roster the Clippers have around their stars – the depth, versatility and talent – so that when I tell you how good Kawhi Leonard has been down the stretch of this season, the impact of what that means can be truly felt.
Leonard’s recovery from his ACL tear during the 2021 playoffs was a little rockier than most were hoping for, and as the Clippers simultaneously struggled to consistently win games, there was a lot of scrutiny and disappointment in the general NBA sphere. But Leonard hasn’t missed consecutive games since the beginning of December, and the level at which he’s played to close the season hasn’t gotten nearly enough shine – it would not be hyperbole to suggest he was one of the five best players in the NBA for the calendar year 2023. Since January 6th – the halfway point of the Clippers’ season – Leonard has played in 35 of a possible 41 games, and averaged 27.3 points, 6.8 rebounds and 4 assists while shooting 52% from the floor, a sweltering 46% from three, and decimal points under 90% from the free throw line. His 1.6 steals and 0.7 blocks during that stretch don’t do justice to how dominant he was on the defensive end as well. In that span the Clippers went 22-13; other than a four-game losing streak that came with the addition of Westbrook and the team was finding its footing, they only lost consecutive games once.
Everyone knows Leonard as a two-time NBA champion and Finals MVP, but he holds another title: perhaps the best playoff performer in the game today. It has quickly been forgotten just how great Leonard was during the Raptors’ 2019 title run (30.5 points, 9.1 rebounds and 3.9 assists per game on 49/38/88 shooting across 24 playoff games); his 2017 playoff run with the San Antonio Spurs, in which he averaged a hair under 28 points per game on 50/40/90 season before being cut short in the Western Conference Finals, may as well be lost to history in the public eye. Even his 2021 playoff run, the last time we saw Leonard on this stage healthy, feels forgotten. Leonard averaged over 30 points per game while shooting 57% from the floor, and put up one of the greatest playoff games of all time to stave off elimination against the Dallas Mavericks in a 45-point Game 6 that remains one of the most spectacular performances you’ll find atop a current player’s resume. He is automatic in the postseason, a true Terminator in every sense. Nobody wants a piece of Leonard in the playoffs; with the way he’s playing, they shouldn’t.
The Bad
- I prefaced “The Good” by trying to contextualize the Clippers’ statistical profile, and I’m starting “The Bad” by saying the fact the stats require this much context is concerning. Despite owning a top-5 record in the West and sitting 3 wins over .500 , the Clippers have a negative net rating on the year, lower than every Western Conference team other than Utah, Portland and San Antonio, who all at least finished the year trying to lose games. Again, context can be used to explain some of this away; the Clippers were an elite defense and horrific offense for the beginning of the season as they stumbled to find their way, and have closed the year out scorching on offense while really struggling to get stops. Through all of this, the team: missed Leonard for much of the first half; struggled mightily in the backcourt as Wall and Jackson didn’t perform to expectations; didn’t have a real backup center until the trade deadline; and added four new rotation players. Now, George is out too. There has surely been a ton of inconsistency with this team, and so the stats are understandably very wonky all across the team.
Title contenders aren’t this inconsistent. Like, ever. The closest team one will find to this is probably the 1995 Houston Rockets, who added Clyde Drexler at the trade deadline but stumbled into the playoffs as the sixth seed, winning the title without homecourt in any series. That team, though, was coming off of a championship, and it still required one of the greatest playoff runs ever from Hakeem Olajuwon. The Clippers have a superstar capable of such a run in Leonard; that is where the similarities end. There have been so many versions of this team this season – with and without Leonard, John Wall as sixth man, the deadline overhaul, now Westbrook (and no George). That lack of cohesion can translate into the playoffs; history says it will. The fact that two of the players the Clips shipped out at the deadline – Jackson and Luke Kennard – played real, important roles on their conference finals run two seasons ago only adds insult to injury. This team needs any and all chemistry it can create. Without George to start this run, that is a lot to ask. The West may be a bloodbath this year, but nearly every team has more continuity over the past few seasons – and every team had more this year – than the Clippers. Generally speaking, that isn’t a formula that wins championships.
- Honestly, the things mentioned above make up a lot of the issues that the Clippers will face. This section is short, but it’s because the things I’m discussing are hugely important for teams gunning for the title. There are other questions – if Westbrook gets played off the floor, what does the point guard position look like? Deadline acquisition Bones Hyland has had his moments, but his defense is highly unlikely to hold up for extended stretches in the playoffs. Is it Mann again? That could hamstring some of Lue’s versatility. There is also the (somewhat) valid question: is there such a thing as too much depth? Rosters featuring so many immensely talented players sound amazing on paper, but as teams like the early 2000s Portland Trail Blazers and 2018-19 Boston Celtics (featuring Kyrie Irving, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Al Horford, Gordon Hayward, Marcus Smart, and, yes, Marcus Morris Sr.) have shown, it doesn’t always pan out the way you’d like, both in the short and long term. That question, combined with the Clippers’ lack of experience playing together, opens up the possibility that this becomes a team lesser than the sum of its parts.
More than anything, though, we just don’t know what the Clippers are. When the offense was terrible, the defense was great. Better offensive players were added (and good defenders weren’t removed), and the team’s statistical profile flipped. Seventeen players started a game for the Clippers this season. It is so hard to properly analyze this team because we just don’t know what they are at the end of the day. The good news for the Clippers is that we don’t necessarily need to know who they are; it only matters that they do. The Clippers’ biggest question is: do they?
Lineup I’d Like To See
Bones Hyland, Eric Gordon, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Nicolas Batum
Matchup Thoughts
First Round vs. PHX (4)
This one’s a doozy. There’s palpable irony that the Clippers and Suns are matched up in the first round. The Clippers have been knocked for their lack of continuity for four seasons now, while the Suns are going into this run having played a grand total of eight games with Kevin Durant. There are also immense stakes: both of these teams want to – and, for some involved, need to – win the title this year; one will exit in the first round. There are several intriguing on-court matchups and schematic tidbits that make this series a fascinating one to try and project, though.
The Clippers are going to be a tough team to guard, even with George out for the start of the series. Leonard and the shooting up and down the roster guarantee that. Lineups featuring Leonard and any combination of Gordon, Batum, Morris and Powell around him on the perimeter will strain defenses struggling to stop the superstar, likely operating out of the middle of the floor, and recovering to shooters. That Westbrook and Powell are both adept at collapsing defenses with their drives to the basket will serve as a further boon; Phoenix’s incredibly sound rotations and schemes will be put to the test. This is such a high-octane offensive team when it’s rolling, and Phoenix might not have the defensive personnel to handle all of it. Lue will surely attack any perceived weak links, be it Terrence Ross, Cam Payne, Landry Shamet, Jock Landale, even Chris Paul – that the list is this long isn’t amazing.
On the other end of the court, Los Angeles’ ability to go to switch-all lineups with a small-ball center has the potential to seriously disrupt a lot of what the Suns do. Switching actions negates a lot of the advantages a ball-handler creates off of a screen; any momentum they create is often killed by a new defender planted firmly in front of them. And, with players like Leonard, George, Batum and Morris, there are enough bigger defenders to feel comfortable showing Durant multiple looks involving them (switches, traps, blitzes, etc.) across the course of a game. Even Gordon should be able to hold his own a bit. This makes Deandre Ayton a humongous swing piece. If he can make the Clippers really pay for going small – offensive rebounding and mismatch abuse are two low-hanging fruit – then Lue’s options drastically decrease. Conversely, Batum looms large – his ability to hang with Ayton as a center on defense and space the floor in five-out configurations on offense will also determine a lot of the efficacy of these lineups. Zubac is good; Ayton is better, and while Plumlee probably has the advantage over Landale or Bismack Biyombo as backup fives, all of their minutes project to be relatively limited, so it’s marginal.
There is also the possibility for Durant-at-center lineups to counter the Clippers going small, and the Suns can stack the deck with switchable defenders in those lineups. Josh Okogie suddenly gets more playable, as he’d be the only non-shooter on the floor, and the longer he can survive for Phoenix, the better. He is one of a few bodies the Suns can throw at Durant and Booker; individually, they may be less skilled than the Clippers’ guys, but coach Monty Williams has instilled a defensive philosophy and mindset that his players execute at a high level. No matter what, though, Phoenix’s chances here lie in their ability to leverage Durant and Booker together on offense. This can take the form of the two in action together; one attacking while the other sits on the weakside, either one pass away on the wing or pulling his defender out of the paint from the corner; or simply leveraging the threat of one or both to create opportunities for the team. The Clippers have the switching personnel to make things difficult on each individual star, but it is in those more subtle methods – when the threat isn’t active, but it’s always there, keeping the defense on its toes – that create the real opportunities. The onus is on the Clippers’ defenders to try their best to slow that down.
I think I would favor the Suns in this series, if for no reason other than George’s health being in question. This will, hopefully, be a true clash of titans, featuring incredibly high stakes, so much uncertainty on both sides, and two of the game’s greatest to ever do it, performing at as high a level as we’ve seen from them. Whether you’re a Clippers fan, a Suns fan, or a neutral viewer – tune in. This should be a good one.
Second Round vs. DEN (1)
This would be a rematch between these two teams, having dueled in the Orlando Bubble in the 2020 conference semifinals. Lots has changed since then; Nikola Jokic has won two MVPs, the Clippers have a new coach, and there’s a whole cast of new faces on both sides (including former Clipper Reggie Jackson on the Nuggets). The fact that things have changed this much should come as a comfort to the Clippers, but you can bet that it doesn’t. That’s because, ever since coming back from down 3-1 and completely, utterly sucking the soul out of the Clippers, the Denver Nuggets have had their number. Denver is 9-2 against Los Angeles since that series, and have won six straight games. The last time the Clippers lost a game to the Nuggets by single digits was in January of last year. It is also important to note here that the Nuggets series also represents Kawhi Leonard’s worst since blossoming into a superstar – by far. There is absolutely a mental hurdle the Clippers would have to overcome in this series; Denver isn’t scared.
On the court, though, there should be some things that operate in LA’s favor. Notably, the fact that they use so many wing-type players in their rotation could really help attack Jokic. The Nuggets defend screens by showing and recovering, a scheme that has Jokic stay at the level of the screen until his teammate recovers to the ball-handler, containing the ball in the process. Behind that, the rest of the Nuggets make rotations to cover for the gaps created (for instance, the roll man likely getting in between Jokic and the basket). The Clippers have the personnel to exploit a scheme like this. Players like Batum and Morris, if playing the five, can pop instead of roll; that opens up threes and bends the defense in a way it isn’t really used to. Additionally, Batum’s advanced court vision gives him the ability to catch the ball on the roll, read how the defense is rotating, and make the right play out of it. Beyond that, though, the Clippers can put so much shooting on the floor that Denver’s defenders, who are already playing from behind, can’t afford any mistakes; just about any Clipper can make them pay.
Denver’s point-of-attack defense also stands to be an issue for them; against Westbrook and Powell, that might not be tenable for seven games. On the other end, Zubac will be vital; if he can guard Jokic one-on-one, life gets immensely easier for the rest of LA’s defense, and it closes off so many of the passing windows that Jokic breaks basketball with. And, with like-sized, elite defenders in George and Leonard, Michael Porter Jr.’s advantages as a supersized elite shooter are somewhat mitigated. There is, though, the question of who guards Jamal Murray. Ideally, it’d be George; his health still looms large. Leonard probably won’t take the primary assignment; he’s not as good against quick, nimble guards, and Lue will likely want him to conserve his energy. Westbrook should be tried as an option, but banking on Westbrook’s defense was a risky proposition in 2018, let alone 2023. If Murray is able to get loose – and he absolutely wouldn’t be lacking in confidence – then the Clippers are doomed. Because if Murray is loose, then Jokic will inevitably get loose; their two-man chemistry is too good, and they elevate each other so much at their apex.
Denver might not be able to guard the Clippers, but if the Clippers can’t guard Denver, this won’t end well for them. Jokic is the head of an all-time great offensive machine every second he is on the court. He, and the Nuggets around him, have too much firepower to win a shootout. If the version of the Clippers we’ve gotten to close the regular season shows up against Denver, they have no shot. There’s a chance the Nuggets call their number anyway even if they don’t. I would predict the Nuggets to win this series in six games.