2022-23 Playoff Primer: 3/6 Seeds

As we inch closer to the start of the 2023 Playoffs, it’d be a good idea for anyone with any interest in watching the games to get a sense for the teams they’ll be watching. If that’s you, then I’ve got you covered — I’m doing a breakdown of all 16 playoff teams and putting it here! This edition features the third and sixth seeded teams in both conferences: the Philadelphia 76ers, Brooklyn Nets, Sacramento Kings, and Golden State Warriors. You can find the 4/5 seed breakdown here; the rest will be out in the next few days. Hope you enjoy!

Philadelphia 76ers

Record: 54-28

Seed: 3

Opponent: Brooklyn

Notable Team Stats (per Cleaning The Glass)

ORTG: 118.3 (3rd leaguewide)

DRTG: 114.0 (10th leaguewide)

Net Differential: +4.3 (5th leaguewide)

ORB%: 24.5% (25th leaguewide)

FT Rate: 25.1 (1st leaguewide)

3PT Frequency: 35.4% (13th leaguewide)

3PT%: 39.1% (T-1st leaguewide)

Opp. PTS added in transition/100 possessions: 3.0 (22nd leaguewide)

The Good

- A top 10 team on both ends of the floor, Philadelphia has all of the ingredients of an elite team. Multiple good, versatile defenders; shooting across the positional spectrum; a dynamite third option; an unstoppable go-to play; and a bona fide, surefire superstar. Philadelphia has surrounded Joel Embiid with the best-fitting assemblage of talent he’s ever had, and in turn, Embiid is having the best season of his career. Leading the league in scoring for the second consecutive season while posting career-best scoring and shooting numbers (he’s shooting a career-high 54.7% from the floor – three percentage points better than his next best season and the second season of his career at over 50%). The addition of James Harden to Philadelphia’s offense, combined with Embiid’s natural evolution as a scoring threat, have led Embiid to the spot on the floor that’s unlocked all of this: the nail.

In prior seasons, a typical Embiid possession began with him fighting for post position at the elbow or facing up on the block, followed by a blend of grace, fluidity, and brute force unlike anything the league has ever known. Now, in part because he can just set a screen for Harden and waltz to the spot on the floor marked by the free throw line; usually, a perfect catch is waiting. From there, Embiid has the whole floor to survey, either side to attack, and a straight line to the basket. As a result, Embiid has become more efficient than ever, but remained every bit as dominant. His scoring array from within the free throw line resembles that of a scoring wing like Jayson Tatum or Kobe Bryant, but coming from a 7-foot frame that’s impossible to stop. 

But when Philadelphia’s perennial MVP candidate is truly locked in – which doesn’t happen as consistently in the regular season as you would like – he has an ability to completely take over a game at a level you can’t find anywhere else. There have been fourth quarters this season where Embiid’s fingerprints have quite literally been all over every play because he was directly involved in all of them, on both ends of the floor. You’re subject to fantastic, improbable scoring followed by legitimately terrifying defense on each possession that usually ends in either an Embiid block or an Embiid rebound off a contest, every time, back and forth, possession after possession. That level of dominance, that imposition of will on the opponent, that ability to put the entire team on his back on every play for entire quarters if that’s what it takes to win, is unrivaled across the league. When Embiid is at his best, he is the best player in the NBA. And if that Joel Embiid shows up – good luck.

- The 2023 76ers reek of Daryl Morey. Many of the team’s acquisitions since Morey’s arrival in 2020 were either drafted by Morey or played for him in Houston, from PJ Tucker to Montrezl Harrell, but none are more prominent or important than James Harden. The former league MVP and three-time scoring champion is leading the league in assists for the second time in his career, all while shooting his highest percentage from 3-point range since he was coming off the bench in Oklahoma City. His playmaking and gravity on the floor have helped unlock Embiid, as the Harden/Embiid pick-and-roll ranks among the league’s very best individual plays. Overplay either side and a Hall of Famer is able to torch you, and a bevy of shooters are just a pass away for one of the best basketball minds in the modern era. 

Harden’s scoring volume has dipped, but he conducts Philadelphia’s offense; when Harden is on the floor, the Sixers’ offense is almost six points per 100 possessions better than when he sits – and they score at a level better than the best offense in the NBA. Harden’s uncanny ability to read the floor is accentuated because of the amount of respect both he and Embiid command from defenses; the attention they both attract on the floor opens up shots for Harden to find, and as the team with the best three-point percentage in the league, they’ve been able to capitalize all season long. And if a team is able to shut all of that down for a possession, Harden can still roast a defender in isolation. His stepback three is as potent as ever, and he’s ventured back into the midrange for the first time since before Mike D’Antoni became a part of his basketball life. Harden’s been playing exceptionally well all season; with a reduced load over the course of the year relative to most of his prime, it’s time to see if Harden can finally return the Finals for the first time since he was coming off the bench in Oklahoma City. With the way he’s played this season next to Embiid, there’s reason for optimism.

- Philadelphia doesn’t just have one stud in the backcourt. Third year guard Tyrese Maxey has broken out this season as a 20-point-per-game scorer next to two of the greatest scorers in NBA history, and it’s been a joy to watch unfold. Maxey’s game can be best described as thrilling, especially juxtaposed against the slower pace Philly normally plays at with Embiid on the floor. His end-to-end speed and acceleration are nearly unmatched, and his fullcourt finishes in a blur are a reliable source of offense. His jumpshot has come along better than anyone could have possibly hoped, and he’s shooting a ridiculous 43% from three, taking more of them than ever despite playing fewer minutes per game than last season. Maxey is the most overqualified spark plug in the NBA; liable for scoring bursts in impossibly short periods of time, and capable of breathing life into an offense stuck in the mud. These are swing skills that can determine playoff series, if not championships.

Maxey’s role was in flux at times this season – there was a long stretch where he came off the bench as Philly tried a more defensively-oriented starting lineup with De’Anthony Melton starting at shooting guard in his place – but it’s been clear down the stretch: Maxey is too good to be an overqualified sixth man. He’s a tertiary star at 22 years of age, as well as maybe the single biggest X-factor in the 2023 playoffs. Remember when Philly’s X-factor was Tobias Harris?

- I just mentioned De’Anthony Melton, and I’ll take that as an excuse to bring him up again; he won’t make an All-Defense team this year, but he is absolutely one of the most impactful defenders in the NBA. His positional length, insane anticipation, and uncanny ability to make a play on the defensive end of the floor made him one of the league’s hidden gems for years in Memphis’ ensemble of quality players, but now he has a bigger stage to put on a show. That he usurped Maxey’s starting spot for a decent chunk of the season should be telling enough about his defensive ability, and you would only need to watch him play for a few minutes before realizing it yourself. His perimeter defensive ability is key next to Maxey and Harden, and his shooting lets him play next to either effectively. Melton functions best as a complementary offensive piece anyway – the perfect kind of role player to complement the kind of high-end talent Philly has at the guard spots.

Philadelphia’s complementary core outside of Melton is as strong as it’s ever been, too. PJ Tucker brings his championship pedigree and defensive intellect and ability, as well as years of chemistry in high-leverage games alongside Harden. Tucker can guard any star wing or forward – or rather, he will; that is probably the single most impactful thing he brings to the table at this point, but he has a knack for offensive rebounds and timely corner threes. Philly has almost never gone to it this season, but Tucker is also capable of manning units at center, which is just another wrinkle the Sixers can throw out there. Danuel House was brought in to provide defensive versatility and two-way with his athleticism, but it didn’t pan out as well as I think anybody hoped; one would imagine that played into their decision to trade for Jalen McDaniels at the trade deadline. That move was a shrewd one – while he’s not quite the All-Defense-level monster his brother Jaden is, McDaniels brings length and switchability on defense, and he’s good in his own right. The athleticism he brings helps, too; he and Maxey are the two markedly above average athletes in the rotation. More than anything, McDaniels and Tucker give Philly options on defense, which you can never get enough of in the playoffs.

Between the defensive injection of Melton, Tucker and McDaniels and the contributions of the incumbents in the rotation – Georges Niang continues to light the world on fire from behind the arc, Shake Milton has developed into a quality bench guard with his multi-level scoring ability, and Paul Reed still plays harder than anyone else on the floor for 100% of his minutes – Philly’s supporting cast looks stronger than it has in a long time. What should be telling is that Tobias Harris is having a stellar season for Philadelphia, not dissimilar from when he’s looked at his best for them over the last five seasons. But his production is at by far its lowest during his time in Philadelphia, because he’s been relegated to the role he’s always been destined to thrive in. The Sixers asked him to be more than that for his entire tenure to this point, and it was always clear that he was overcast in that role. Not anymore. This 76ers roster has balance, depth and versatility it hasn’t had in the Joel Embiid era. There’s no way of saying this team is definitively better than either of the East’s other two titans, but they stack up as well as they ever have.

The Bad

- The biggest bugaboo of the Joel Embiid era, above the Jimmy Butler saga, above the repeated MVP runner-ups, even above what transpired with Ben Simmons, has been the 76ers’ drastic and borderline inexplicable dropoff in the minutes in which Embiid rests. It has gotten better as the years have gone on – the 76ers were an astonishing +90 in 237 minutes with Embiid on the court during their seven-game heartbreaker loss to the Toronto Raptors in 2019, but an even more astonishing and downright absurd -109 in the 99 minutes Embiid sat – but tangential to this issue has always been the backup center position. The position has been a rotating door in Philly for years, having been occupied by names such as Greg Monroe, Boban Marjanovic, Dwight Howard, Andre Drummond and DeAndre Jordan over the last five seasons alone – and none of those names are on the 76ers’ current roster. Their backup big man room now comprises of Reed, who hustles like his life depends on it but is a true wild card; Dewayne Dedmon, picked up after being bought out by the Miami Heat when he couldn’t carve out consistent minutes; and Montrezl Harrell, the former Sixth Man of the Year under head coach Doc Rivers with the LA Clippers whose failure to seize this opportunity firmly despite his pedigree is telling enough.

All three of Philly’s backup bigs provide different theoretical benefits – Reed’s hustle and rebounding, Dedmon’s shooting and rim defense, and Harrell’s offensive juice as a screener and a scorer. But none of them even come close to providing a facsimile of Embiid’s transcendent game; it’s an impossible ask for any backup center to try and do that, but it’s also true that none of Philly’s bigs come close. In fact, each of their flaws are so glaring that it’s almost easier to envision a world in which they’re played off the floor than where they can survive, particularly for Dedmon and Harrell. 

I previously mentioned Tucker as an option at the five; I also mentioned how little Philly has gone to it this season. That’s not to say Rivers won’t potentially try it in the playoffs – just that it’s too much of an unknown to write down in pen as a solution. The other, obvious answer is to just play Embiid as many minutes as you can, which is likely what’s going to happen. In making that their gameplan, Philadelphia is guaranteeing their fingers will be crossed for their entire run – freak injuries follow Embiid during this time of year like moths to a flame, and he’s generally never been known as a durable player despite his best attempts at availability. And even if everything goes right, if Embiid is out there every night for 40+ minutes, playoff series are won on the margins. Any second Embiid sits is an opportunity for the opponent to capitalize, and you can guarantee they will. Maxey and Harden will have a lot of responsibility when Embiid sits to carry the offense; Philly’s backup big men and defenders need to be absolutely locked in. And Rivers needs to stagger his best players to ensure two are on the floor at all times, something he has been known to avoid at times. The worst case scenario is Philadelphia falls apart so much in the non-Embiid minutes that he has to play even more, which just heightens fatigue and injury risk as the playoff run progresses. They can’t afford for that to happen.

- There’s one other playoff bugaboo that looms large over this team (if we exclude the coaching staff): Harden’s postseason history. One of the most decorated, talented and dangerous players in the history of the league, but with an abnormally long list of postseason dud performances, especially in elimination games. He’s absolutely had great moments; when he made a series-clinching defensive stop during Game 7 of his first-round series in 2020 against the Oklahoma City Thunder as a member of the Rockets, blocking a 3-point attempt from Luguentz Dort – the hottest man on the court (unrelated: the Bubble really was a time)– stands out in recent memory. But so does his 11-point showing in last year’s Game 6 loss to the Miami Heat, in which he only took nine shots, none in the second half. As encouraging as Harden’s played this season, it is impossible to ignore this elephant in the room. This is an opportunity for him to put years of prior failures behind him and break through to a level of success he’s never achieved in his Hall of Fame career; it could also end like so many other Harden playoff runs have: with a dud.

- Philadelphia’s defended at a top-10 level overall this season, but they do have one major area of concern on that end – in transition. They give up transition opportunities at near-league-worst rates off both steals and rebounds, and they aren’t particularly good at stopping the ball during those chances, either. It’s been an issue for them all season long, and there has been improvement from the start of the year, but we’re talking about growth from abhorrent to merely bad. Embiid’s halfcourt style of play, in which he often ends up on the ground after either taking or seeking contact, doesn’t help this at all; opponents get five-on-four advantages more often than they’d get against other teams. While it’s true that the game normally slows down in the playoffs, the fact that the Sixers have given up transition opportunities as frequently as they have all season is not cause for relief – if anything, it’s more likely that we’ll see this translate in the playoffs. Philadelphia will have to get through several of the best teams in the NBA if they want to win a title, and smart teams will hammer any weaknesses they can find. If you find yourself watching 76er opponents running the score up in transition in the next few months en route to another early postseason exit for Philly, know that you saw it coming.

- Tucker has been as solid as Philadelphia could have asked for all season in the starting lineup, but it feels we’ve reached the point where it’s known his true value comes in the playoffs, and we know exactly what we’re going to get, that it can be a little funky to evaluate his regular season performances. His roles on three different contending teams in three consecutive seasons – the 2021 champion Milwaukee Bucks, the 2022 Eastern Conference Finalist Miami Heat, and the 2023 76ers – have fluctuated wildly; he was little more than an offensive rebounder and Kevin Durant annoyance with the Bucks; his role and involvement in Miami’s offense was unlike anything he’d ever done, making plays in the short roll and as a fulcrum in their system; in Philly, it’s looked a lot like his Milwaukee stint, where he has seemingly stopped wanting to shoot the ball. His usage rate in the Bucks’ title run was a measly 5.9%, which could maybe be explained by the fact he was a midseason acquisition who only entered the starting lineup once the normal starter, Donte DiVincenzo, went down with a season-ending injury during the first round of the playoffs. This year, after signing a three year, $33 million dollar contract with Philadelphia in the offseason, it sits at 6.4%. Tucker’s taking three shots per game, half as many as he did in Miami.

That he has started on and played a real role in the success of all three teams is a testament to his ability, experience, and presence, but his offensive game, or lack thereof, has become a concern as the season’s gone on. Being that much of a non-factor in the halfcourt – even when providing value as an offensive rebounder – might prove untenable down the stretch of a playoff series. The problem is, those are the moments that Philadelphia signed Tucker to play in. His usage rate increased in the 2021 playoffs, even if only a little, so there’s precedent to suggest he may turn it up a notch. Sealing a late regular-season win against Boston with back-to-back corner threes was classic Tucker– and demonstrated he still has a penchant for the moment. We’re going to need to see it in action again.

Lineup I Want To See

James Harden, Tyrese Maxey, Jalen McDaniels, Tobias Harris, PJ Tucker

Matchup Thoughts

First Round vs. BKN (6)

This is a fortunate first round matchup for Philadelphia in that the most glaring weakness in the Nets’ roster is their size. Nic Claxton is the only real big man with extensive NBA experience on the roster, and the only other one period is second-year Day’Ron Sharpe, which isn’t exactly a top-shelf big man room. This will mean all eyes – and all bodies – will be on Embiid at all times, as the Nets compensate for their size deficiencies with incredible tenacity and smarts on the defensive end of the court. You can be as technically skilled as anyone in the world though, but if you’re too small, you’re simply too small.

There’s a real chance that happens here, as Embiid could simply power through the Nets’ attempts to slow him down. The help he and Harden will draw – and the amount of help the Nets are going to show – also means easier looks for everyone else, as long as they make the right decisions with ball movement and expounding on the advantages created for them. This Nets defense is good – it just might be too flawed to slow down Philadelphia’s machine in the middle. There was a game against the Nuggets earlier this season in which Nets nominal backup center and true starting power forward Dorian Finney-Smith took the Nikola Jokic assignment one-on-one after Claxton got in foul trouble and more than held his own, playing a real role in making Jokic uncomfortable en route to a Nets win. How? He was constantly in Jokic’s space — before every catch, on every dribble, not allowing him to comfortably get to his spots. The Nets forced a couple of turnovers on Jokic this way, and it let them play defense the way they wanted to. They could successfully guard Denver without having to send another man to Jokic every possession, freeing up someone for Jokic to find before the defense can patch it up.

Embiid isn’t Jokic, though – he’s looking to tear you apart on every possession, while Jokic is geared towards making the right basketball play. If you give Embiid an advantage as glaring as the Nets’ roster does, it’s hard to believe he won’t capitalize. Though the Nets have great perimeter defensive options to throw at Harden and Maxey, the level to which Embiid bends the geometry of Brooklyn’s defense might prove too much to overcome. 

On the other end of the court, the Nets’ biggest advantage is probably going to be the 76ers’ propensity for giving up transition looks. The Nets’ halfcourt offense can really bog down if the threes stop falling, and they might be able to rely on transition looks for consistent offense when that happens. Philadelphia is more than likely to give them those looks, which will serve as a boon. But the fact that Brooklyn actually hasn’t been a very efficient transition offense, combined with Philly’s defensive ability in the halfcourt and the Nets’ lack of an elite lead option offensively – unless Mikal Bridges is simply the player he’s been since joining the Nets – will likely make it very, very difficult for them to generate consistent offense for stretches of this series. All said, I think Philly should win this series, but salute to the Brooklyn Nets for a back half of the season to remember.

Second Round vs. BOS (2)

Assuming there are no upsets, we’re destined for Boston versus Philadelphia in the second round, a true clash of titans in the East. The Celtics holding homecourt is a big deal; Milwaukee sacrificed it against Boston last season and regretted their decision. The Sixers have Tucker to throw at Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown, and a number of rangy, switchable defenders to try and make life difficult for Boston’s star tandem. The presence and availability of Robert Williams III is huge; Al Horford will likely be guarding Embiid regardless, and having a rim protector of that caliber on the backline against one of the league’s premier players could prove vitally important.

These are the moments that will make Tucker’s offensive presence vital. Williams III will almost certainly start games on Tucker and willingly roam off of him to protect the paint. If Tucker can make that strategy unviable, Philadelphia’s in a good place. Their late-season showdown suggested he’s willing and able to try. If he can’t, his minutes are going to be rough.

This is another series in which a number of perimeter defenders could make life hard on Maxey and Harden – Marcus Smart and Derrick White are relentless fighting through screens and contesting jumpers, and Boston’s switching scheme makes generating advantages out of ball screens tough. They will also lock in on the Embiid/Harden pick-and-roll, Philly’s signature play. Harden’s ability to keep figuring out the defense and finding ways to get Embiid the ball in his spots will be critical to keeping the Sixers’ offense afloat. If Boston can choke that out – the lifeblood of the offense, and the best way to use Philadelphia’s two best players together – then the 76ers’ chances decrease drastically. Harden, as the conductor of the dance, the second star in Philly’s solar system, is vital in making sure that doesn’t happen.

Secondary players on both sides have the potential to make major impacts on this series. Boston has elite depth and tertiary shotmaking talent in Malcolm Brogdon; Maxey is the kind of player that can render those advantages null – or turn them into necessities – with his offensive output. Al Horford is shooting 44% from 3 this season, and will likely be guarded by Embiid. If he can pull Embiid from the rim, a critical component of Philadelphia’s defense weakens. Tobias Harris’ ability to create his own looks down the stretch when called upon could be massive – he is one of the most talented fourth options in the league. This series projects to be a bloodbath, and the better team will come out victorious. Our only issue is, we don’t know which team that is yet.

Brooklyn Nets

Record: 45-37

Seed: 6

Opponent: Philadelphia

Notable Team Stats (per Cleaning The Glass)

*as of February 9th, 2023, when Mikal Bridges and Cameron Johnson joined the team

ORTG: 113.8 (23rd leaguewide)

DRTG: 115.4 (15th leaguewide)

Net Differential: -1.6 (22nd leaguewide)

Opponent ORB%: 29.5% (29th overall)

eFG%: 53.2% (24th leaguewide)

Midrange Shot Frequency: 33.9% (8th leaguewide)

Midrange Shooting %: 47.7% (1st leaguewide)

3PT%: 38.2 (5th leaguewide)

FT Rate: 22.8 (6th leaguewide)

The Good

- The 3.5 years of the Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant era in Brooklyn were never short of drama, controversy, and ultimately, unfulfilled expectations. Every half-season seemingly contained a new subplot for the team to try and navigate, spanning trades, coaching changes and several happenings that had nothing to do with the basketball being played. It must come as a relief, then, to those who have been around through it all to watch these Nets play. This team isn’t a title contender like the Durant/Irving iterations before it, but they’re a good team, they play hard as hell under newly minted head coach Jacque Vaughn, and, in a way Nets basketball hasn’t felt in years, they’re fun.

In more than a few ways, this Nets team resembles the 2018-19 Nets team that, under then-coach Kenny Atkinson, overachieved and took the league by storm with their underdog mentality and impeccable vibes. Seriously, I’ve been waiting for a team to match their level of joy for four seasons now. Vaughn was a member of the coaching staff then; Joe Harris and the recently re-acquired Spencer Dinwiddie played large roles too. And, importantly, the front office was the same then as it is now, with Sean Marks having overseen Brooklyn’s mid-2010s rebuild into the title contention era, and is now being tasked with starting over again. 

That Nets team featured a true ensemble cast of characters – names like Dinwiddie, Harris, Caris LeVert, DeMarre Carroll, Allen Crabbe, Jared Dudley, Treveon Graham, Shabazz Napier, Ed Davis, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and a young Jarrett Allen populated the rotation – led by an unlikely star performance when D’Angelo Russell captured lightning in a bottle. This Nets team has a similar depth of quality players, such Dorian Finney-Smith, Cameron Johnson, Nicolas Claxton, Royce O’Neale, and Seth Curry, and have been led by a surprising star performance from Mikal Bridges since his acquisition at the trade deadline. The vibes are great, and the team plays as if they know they have no expectations placed upon them, a feeling that can be very freeing. That Nets team lost in five games to the 76ers in a 3-6 first round matchup; this one enters the postseason as the same seed against the same opponent. In the grand scheme of things, the culture and camaraderie of those 2019 Nets led to Brooklyn signing two of the greatest players ever in free agency, and that team’s performance was looked back on as a big reason why. What happens next for these spunky Nets doesn’t matter yet; what does is that they’re here now, and they’re not just going to keel over and die.

- The Nets’ roster is short on a few very important archetypes – primarily, big men and a proven top offensive option. But where they’re absolutely not lacking is in rangy, versatile and above average defenders. The Nets’ starting lineup of Dinwiddie, Bridges, Johnson, Finney-Smith and Claxton features five players 6’6 or taller, with no glaring weak links; in fact, it contains three of the best individual defenders in basketball in Bridges, Finney-Smith and Claxton. These units can switch any and every action, as four of the players on the court are similar in height and the fifth – Claxton – is one of basketball’s preeminent switch bigs. They can and will throw aggressive help all over the court, knowing that the sheer amount of wingspan crowding a ball-handler is enough to cause major disruption. 

They don’t sacrifice much of that length and versatility with their bench; O’Neale comes in and provides similar benefits to the rest of the wing corps; Harris is by no means small, and he competes; Curry is undersized, but has always been an underrated effort guy on defense, and his shooting makes him indispensable at times. Names like Yuta Watanabe and Edmond Sumner aren’t rotation regulars, but they have the ability to at the very least maintain the level of defensive intensity the Nets play at, if not give a boost on some nights. The team generates a lot of turnovers and doesn’t send opponents to the free throw line, establishing a baseline for defensive success and helping to cover up some of Brooklyn’s other flaws, on both ends of the court.

Vaughn has these Nets completely bought in on defense, and though it’s been rocky at times (the Nets rank 15th in overall defense since their deadline acquisitions all started playing together), that can be expected from a team who just replaced two superstar talents with four quality players from two different teams. But even when the defense struggled, it was evident watching the Nets play that there was something real there. Over the last 2 weeks Brooklyn has defended at a higher level; their versatility and complete buy-in will make them at the very least a nuisance in the playoffs.

- Any conversation about the current Nets has to include Mikal Bridges, prominently – upon arriving in Brooklyn, he has upped his points per game by double digits, and is scorching defenses from all over the floor. His midrange game, which began to truly blossom earlier this season when he was still a member of the Phoenix Suns, has gone to another level; he takes almost half of his shots from the midrange and converts nearly half of them, too. His pull-up once he gets to his spots in the midrange is reminiscent of some of the game’s premier offensive talents, including the one that he was traded for. His immense length makes him a unique finisher, holding the ball out in front of him near the basket and almost inserting it into the basket with his Go-Go Gadget arms before defenders can really process what’s happening. Bridges has had stretches of games this season where every bucket looks and feels more improbable than the last; in his most recent 40-point outing – his third as a Net, after posting zero as a Sun in nearly five seasons playing every single game– he made a baseline floater from behind the backboard in the midst of a double-digit scoring quarter. He’s hit another level offensively.

Defensively, Bridges has been as good as ever. The 2022 All-Defensive First Team selection and Defensive Player of the Year runner-up still plays as hard as ever on that end in spite of his offensive uptick, and works wonderfully running around the court and toggling multiple assignments in Vaughn’s scheme. His aforementioned arms have always helped him here; his preternatural defensive instincts combined with his absurd 7’1 wingspan (Bridges is listed at 6’6) make him a nightmare to play against. He is liable to muck up any offensive action he is standing in the vicinity of, which when working in tandem with Brooklyn’s other high-level defenders, can turn Bridges into a truly monstrous impact defender.

The caveat that Bridges has played at this level for less than thirty games as a Net has to be mentioned here, and these playoffs will test just about all of his growth. But nothing about it has felt unsustainable; in fact, while incredibly rapid, all of the ways in which Bridges has developed have felt natural, and he hasn’t looked outmatched yet. Bridges has proven in a very short time to be Brooklyn’s building block for the next decade. May the greatest audition tape in Nets history continue to roll into the playoffs.

- Perhaps he isn’t underrated anymore per se, but Nic Claxton has absolutely been one of the most underappreciated players in the league this season. From starting next to two superstars on a presumptive title contender to plugging as many holes as humanly possible for this rag-tag group, all while maintaining a genuinely elite defensive level, Claxton deserves more shine than he’s gotten, particularly down the final stretch of the regular season. Having led the NBA in field goal percentage for much of the year (and still sitting at over 70% on the season), Claxton has demonstrated a real knack as a finisher this season, putting in shots at tough angles around outstretched arms all season at a very high level. As the only true big man in the rotation – and the only big man with real NBA experience on the roster – his athleticism as a lob threat opens up avenues for the Nets’ offense that nobody else on the roster can. 

Claxton has played at a borderline All-Defense level for the entire season. He isn’t quite Bam Adebayo as a switch big, but he holds his own on the perimeter more than most centers in the NBA, and that ability unlocks the rest of Brooklyn’s junkyard, frenetic team defense. It’s hard to understate how important that is; the Nets are the very rare team that can genuinely switch any action, one-through-five, and not give up a glaring advantage. That lets the Nets greet any ball-handler out of a screening action with a new, long-armed, capable defender every time, snuffing out the advantages that offenses usually work to create. Claxton is also averaging 2.5 blocks per game, and his rim protection all year has ranked among the league’s very, very best. The Nets’ defense has been astronomically better with Claxton on the court all season; he is the pin that holds the entire thing together.

The Bad

- Brooklyn’s defense has gotten a lot of praise here so far, and rightfully so. Offensively, this team has their work cut out for them. This is ultimately why teams like the Nets – cute, spunky overachievers full of quality NBA players – almost always flame out early in the playoffs (see the 2019 Nets and Clippers, for two modern examples). It’s almost paradoxical; The Nets are a team full of skilled players whose roles to this point in their careers have largely been to make quick, snappy decisions with the ball to keep an offense flowing, but their offense is often what fails them.

Shot selection can reveal some of the story: since the trade deadline acquisitions joined the lineup, Brooklyn has been one of the highest-volume 3-point shooting teams in the league, but they’ve hit them at a below average rate. They neither take nor make many shots at the rim, too; the two areas on the floor that modern offensive philosophies emphasize the most. In watching the games, the reason for these numbers becomes pretty clear: Claxton being their only actual center means that there isn’t a ton of imposition on the rim from down low, and their other offensive options aren’t consistently threats to get downhill. Bridges still looks more comfortable pulling up in the midrange more often than not; the same could be said for Cameron Johnson, who has played well since the trade but falls in the same boat – two evident disciples of the Phoenix Suns School of Pull-Up Midrange Shooting. After being a constant downhill attacker in Dallas over the last two seasons, Dinwiddie’s volume is still up, but his rim efficiency all season hasn’t reached where it was after joining the Mavericks in 2022. Finney-Smith, O’Neale, Harris and Curry are all out there to shoot on the perimeter – none help in this regard. 

The result is what you get with a team absolutely full of players who have built their style of play to capitalize on the advantages created by better players. That’s a great thing, until you look around and realize there are no “better players” to take advantage of. This is why Bridges is so important to the Nets; as the only player on the roster right now with the ability to usurp the top offensive role, his performance in the playoffs could set the hierarchy up properly and set the offense up for success. Sometimes, it’s been Dinwiddie, but in leaning on him you’re accepting the real possibility of going down with the ship, as he has a tendency to usurp all shot-taking duties. Teams don’t treat him like that guy yet, and it impacts the rest of the offense.  Potential answers with shot creation potential on the roster exist, like Patty Mills or Cam Thomas, but their defensive deficiencies can render them unplayable even in moments where their offense would be sorely needed.

Without a consistent advantage generator, things bog down way too often. The open looks a player like Finney-Smith grew accustomed to getting after years playing with the likes of Luka Doncic aren’t quite as open now, so the benefits of his shooting are mitigated as his percentage has inevitably gone down. Many of their 3-point attempts come rushed, after one or more attempts to generate a quality shot fail, so they’re effectively shooting a bunch of Hail Marys every game out of necessity. For a team like the Nets that relies so much on three-point shotmaking, as evidenced by their shot profile, there is just such little margin for error; shooting variance plays just as big a role as anything else in determining offensive success. That’s not a great place to be in as a playoff team, at all.

- These Nets are emphatically a lot of things. Surprising, gritty, and fun all come to mind off the top of my head. But more than any of those (except maybe fun), these Nets are objectively and inescapably one thing: small. The second “biggest” player in their rotation is Dorian Finney-Smith, a great defender normally tasked with guarding star wings and forwards. For the Nets, he moonlights as a backup center. To his credit, he’s done an admirable job all things considered, but the Nets are facing a team featuring Joel Embiid in the first round, and most theoretical pathways through the Eastern Conference would also include a meeting with the Milwaukee Bucks, whose frontcourt duo of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez are each larger individually than anyone on the Nets’ team. It doesn’t help that Claxton, as great as he’s defended all season, is much thinner and slimmer than the big men he will have to guard. 

Brooklyn’s lack of size uniquely hurts them in this regard; when Claxton has to match up with Embiid for an entire series, not only are his odds of picking up early fouls larger than it may be for other centers due to the sheer size disadvantage (Claxton, for his part, guarded Embiid very well during their regular season matchups, but it’s hard to not look at the two on the court together and not be afraid over the course of a series), and their replacement to put on the 280-pound MVP candidate is… a big wing. Throwing Day’Ron Sharpe into the mix is an option, but that’s a wild card that could go either way. During this stretch (and all season, for that matter), the Nets have also been a really bad rebounding team on both ends, which just compounds so many of their issues – the inability to grab offensive rebounds to keep possessions alive and the inability to close out defensive possessions after getting a stop is a brutal cherry on top to Brooklyn’s flaws on both ends of the floor.

The Nets are a very fun team to watch, but they’re also very fundamentally flawed. To Vaughn’s – and the players’ – credit, the Nets have tried to lean into this roster construction as much as possible, and we know that this team is going to put it all out there every single night. The larger issues may just be too great for them to overcome.

Lineup I Want To See

Royce O’Neale, Mikal Bridges, Joe Harris, Cameron Johnson, Dorian Finney-Smith

Matchup Thoughts

First Round vs. PHI (3)

The Nets are a joy, one of the league’s hidden gems this season. Their first-round series versus Philadelphia might not be as fun. Watching the Nets’ intellectually and wingspan-based defense attempt to solve the puzzle that is Joel Embiid with exactly one (1) defender that stands within 3 inches of his height will be a treat, likely for both NBA freaks like myself and 76ers coaches and executives. That is to say, I don’t predict it going very well. Claxton and Finney-Smith will assume most of the duties, and we’ve actually seen them defend an elite center well this season – when Finney-Smith took over much of the responsibilities of guarding Nikola Jokic one-on-one and made him uncomfortable enough in the second half to help propel a Nets home win. 

But Jokic catches the ball with his head on a swivel, looking to dot cutters or find open shooters as often as he’s looking to pound you into the ground. Embiid has one mode: go. It’s likely that the Nets are going to throw as many bodies at Embiid as humanly possible, and try to make him beat them as a playmaker. The issue with that is that Philadelphia is an elite 3-point shooting team, and leaving those shooters open is a dangerous risk to take. Overall, it’s hard to imagine a world in which Brooklyn’s defense can overcome its ultimate flaw – the team’s just so small. 

On the other end of the court, there’s a chance it could get pretty ugly. Putting Joel Embiid by the rim against a team that already doesn’t take or make a lot of shots from there and relies on 3s off of ball movement sequences that are best sparked by driving to the rim and drawing help as a scoring threat may straight up be a death knell. Philadelphia gives up a ton of transition opportunities, so there is a built-in answer to Brooklyn’s offensive woes. The issue there (as you can tell, there are a lot of issues with this matchup) is that Brooklyn isn’t a very good offensive team in transition, ranking fairly low in transition frequency and very low in transition efficiency leaguewide. 

What might ultimately prove fatal to this Nets team is the greater fact that this is a roster best built at stopping the wings and forwards that have defined the last decade of NBA basketball, going against the most dominant big man the league has seen in decades. It’s like giving a baker all the ingredients to bake a cake and then asking them to cook the finest steak you’ve ever seen – the combination of wrong ingredients and wrong skillset may coalesce to be too much for Brooklyn.

Second Round vs. BOS (2)

I’m keeping this brief because I don’t think they upset the 76ers, but if they somehow did, I think the Nets’ matchup against Boston would be at least a bit more interesting (assuming they aren’t upset themselves). Unlike Philly, the Celtics are built around the exact archetype of player that the Nets are built to slow down – two elite scoring wings in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. In Bridges, Johnson, Finney-Smith and O’Neale, the Nets have the exact kind of defenders you would want against Boston’s star duo, with their switchability and length holding the potential to really muck up a lot of the similarly-sized Celtics’ actions. Robert Williams III, as per usual, is Boston’s X-factor; his presence in the lineup not only shuts down the rim for Brooklyn’s offense but gives the Celtics so much more functional size than the Nets when he shares the floor with Al Horford, and even when he doesn’t. Both of these teams hold quality depth, so the Nets are actually more uniquely equipped than most around the league to counter the sheer number of quality players the Celtics can play. Boston can own the boards in a series like this, lest they get lackadaisical; we’ve seen these Nets give them fits on the offensive glass. In all, the Celtics’ sheer talent and experience advantage would give them the edge in this one. But Brooklyn’s hustle, spunk and defensive strengths would make this a series that, while likely not ending all that close, could highlight some of Boston’s issues for the rest of their run.

Sacramento Kings

Record: 48-34

Seed: 3

Opponent: Golden State

Notable Team Stats (per Cleaning The Glass)

ORTG: 119.7 (1st leaguewide)

DRTG: 117.3 (25th leaguewide)

Net Differential: +2.4 (T-8th leaguewide)

Opponent eFG%: 56.7% (27th leaguewide)

Opponent ORB%: 25.4% (6th leaguewide)

Opponent FT Rate: 20.3 (11th leaguewide)

3PT%: 37.1% (13th leaguewide

Opponent 3PT%: 37.7% (26th leaguewide)

eFG%: 57.5% (2nd leaguewide)

FT Rate: 22.7 (4th leaguewide)

The Good

- The Beam.

- The Kings have taken the league by storm, breaking their 16-year playoff drought in spectacular fashion under first-year head coach Mike Brown. Sacramento not only has the best offense in basketball, but their offensive rating is the best in NBA history. The Kings’ offense is a symphony of good decisions and skilled decision-makers. Behind Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox, basketball hasn’t been this good – or unabashedly joyous – in Sacramento since many of the players on the current roster were children. A cacophony of cuts, screens, handoffs, drives, kicks and threes rains down on opponents nightly, with shooting all up and down nearly all of Sacramento’s lineups. The Kings play with a pace that few teams can match, even in the halfcourt; every decision is made firmly, and every move is executed quickly. When all five players are locked in at that level, offense becomes easy, and defense becomes impossible.

Kevin Huerter and Sabonis have developed fantastic chemistry as partners in dribble handoff actions in their first season together, and this play serves as a fantastic microcosm of what makes Sacramento’s offense so deadly. Often, teams try to faceguard Huerter so as to not let him catch the ball or cleanly receive it in a handoff; the Kings will often run him off of one or two screens on the way to Sabonis to dislodge Huerter’s man. That involves new defenders, too, all keyed in on Huerter’s shooting threat. Him running off of screens sews chaos, as Huerter’s man toggles chasing him through multiple screens and communicating with his teammates – the defenders of the screeners – about how to guard the action. The pressure that the Kings put on the space in between Huerter and Sabonis, the eyes that it draws, can unlock backdoor cuts for Huerter, slips for screeners, or open shots on the second side. Sabonis can find them all. The Huerter/Sabonis dribble handoff is one of Sacramento’s staples, and the counters upon counters they create off of just that one action is outright impossible to guard when the Kings are clicking.

- This machine doesn’t run without parts, and the kind of parts that are necessary to make this kind of machine operate need to shoot. Huerter is shooting the three at a 40% clip on a high volume, including many difficult looks; rookie Keegan Murray is shooting 42% on high volume, too – he made the most three-pointers by a rookie in NBA history this season. Bench spark plug Malik Monk, the always-solid Harrison Barnes, and do-it-all backup forward Trey Lyles are all shooting 37% from distance. That kind of spacing around Fox and Sabonis opens up the rest of the court, and those two have turned in the best individual seasons of their careers. 

Huerter’s acquisition from the Atlanta Hawks over the summer has quickly proven to be one of the best trades of last NBA offseason, from Sacramento’s point of view. He immediately stepped in and assumed a huge role for this team, and has become an important piece of its identity. What makes him so deadly is that he isn’t just a catch-and-shoot player; on the contrary, Huerter is one of the best movement shooters in the league. The value of those shots can obviously be seen from his efficacy out of dribble handoffs, but it extends far beyond – Huerter is a constant threat to catch and fire off of any screen or cut, and he strikes legitimate fear into defenses. Lose Huerter, and he’ll make you pay; overplay him, and someone else will, often occupying the open space Huerter creates in the middle of the floor by pulling defenses out. Huerter is a role player with an offensive impact closer to that of a star, at least as it pertains to the attention defenses give him. That’s a luxury very few teams have, but the impact of that archetype has been felt in recent NBA history – one need only look to Duncan Robinson’s role on the Miami Heat team that made the 2020 Finals.

Murray’s production as a rookie – firmly entrenched as the starting small forward on a top three team in the West – has completely justified the Kings’ decision to take him fourth overall in the 2022 draft, and he should be a lock to make the All-Rookie First Team. At 6’8, Murray has positional size, and his feel for the game belies his rookie status. The ability to contribute to winning basketball from day one is a very rare thing in the NBA – it almost always takes at least a year for things to come together, often more, for even some of the league’s most prodigious players. His shooting – historically productive, remember – has been humongous for the Kings; his place in the starting lineup was secure from the second game of the season onward. Murray is simply a good basketball player – able to read and execute at the speed and the level the Kings need him to. His rookie season should be looked at as a smashing success for Sacramento, and while the future is obviously bright, Murray already brings enough to the table to be mentioned here.

- Here’s some more on Fox and Sabonis individually, because there is a case to be made that they’ve been the best duo in the NBA this season, when factoring in consistency and sustained excellence:

Fox has put up the best offensive numbers of his six-year career this season; if you wanted to make the argument that he wasn’t a contributor to winning basketball before, there is absolutely no way you can now. Fox has been the best clutch performer in the league this season, and should be a lock to win its inaugural Clutch Player of the Year award. Fox is averaging five points per game in the clutch this season (defined as when the score of the game is within five points within five minutes remaining), more than any player to appear in more than two clutch games on the year. Fox is shooting an implausible 53% on those shots; that level of volume and efficiency when the team needs it most is unprecedented around the league. 

Fox’s midrange game has become automatic; his speed and change of pace make his drives an impossible guard. You have to try and stay in front of him – perhaps the fastest player in the NBA – all while respecting the threat of his pull-up or floater. He is also shooting 77% at the rim this season, which is by far the most by a point guard in the NBA this season. (Second? Stephen Curry, at 73%). His growth as an on-ball defender from occasional sieve to legitimate asset, in combination with his unbelievable offensive output, have turned him into one of the most deadly – and valuable – guards in the NBA.

The other half of Sacramento’s All-Star duo has poured in a legendary season in his own right. Sabonis is leading the league in rebounds to go with 19 points and seven assists per game – numbers matched by only two-time league MVP Nikola Jokic and Wilt Chamberlain all-time. In fact, Sabonis also joined Jokic and Chamberlain as the only centers to ever record 10 or more triple-doubles in a season. Shooting over 60% from the floor, Sabonis’ old-school, post-centric offensive style combined with the flare that he plays with make him an incredibly fun watch. His inside presence serves as a perfect complement to the Kings’ array of shooters; if a team overplays either side, it’s easy pickings. He sets rock solid screens, which are a large reason why his dribble handoffs are so effective. His ability to process the floor and find his open teammates is incredibly unique out of the center position – don’t let what Jokic has done over the last several years let you forget that. Sabonis is even a threat off of rebounds, able to handle the ball and take it coast-to-coast to either score or start early offense. He and Fox developed chemistry fast upon Sabonis’ midseason arrival in 2022 and it’s only grown since; their ability to enhance each other’s play with their own has been an underrated key to their success. The space Sacramento’s shooters open up is only one part of the equation; Sabonis’ brick wall screens unlock it for Fox to exploit. 

They’re both wired to make the right play, and that mentality is what makes these Kings special. Fox and Sabonis set the example for the Kings, and the effect is palpable. This team is so talented, so connected, so joyous, but what puts it over the top is that they genuinely believe they can win any game, against any opponent. And when you watch them play, led by Sabonis and Fox, it makes you want to believe too. It’d be unreasonable and somewhat irresponsible to suggest this, but the last time we saw a team with those qualities, in their first year with a new head coach, well, the Golden State Warriors won their first title. I’m not saying these Kings are those Warriors – at all, let’s be very clear – but Brown was an assistant for three of Golden State’s four championships before taking over in Sacramento. The apple doesn’t fall far from the tree.

The Bad

- The Kings’ league-leading offense has grabbed a lot of headlines this season for good reason, but there are two sides of the court. Sacramento’s defense has been an issue all year, and there is unfortunately not a lot that suggests they can turn it up in the playoffs. When Mike Brown took over this summer, he ignited a commitment to the defensive end of the floor in these Kings that shows itself in a few ways; they rank among the best defensive rebounding teams in the league with Sabonis, and they don’t send teams to the free throw line a ton. On the road, where Brown is surely hammering concepts harder and calling players to task more consistently, they actually have a top-10 defensive rating on the season But opponents have posted a scintillating 56.7% effective field goal percentage (which takes into account the extra point gained from making a three-pointer) against Sacramento, which demonstrates this team’s key flaw: they just can’t get enough stops.

For all that Sabonis brings to the table, he doesn’t provide rim protection, which creates an inherent challenge for a team’s defense. To Sacramento’s credit here, they have actually given up just an average amount of shots at the rim this season; this is unfortunately negated by opponents shooting 69% on those shots, fifth-worst in the NBA. Due to Sabonis’ deficiencies as a defender, the Kings largely have to guard screening actions by sending Sabonis to the level of the screen and having him recover out of it, as opposed to manning him in a drop or switching those screens. This is a style of defense that requires a lot of on-time, hard defensive rotations by the players behind the action, covering up lanes to the rim while Sabonis recovers positionally, and snuffing out advantages with snappy, disciplined defensive rotations. If that sounds tiring, it is. It’s a type of defense that’s very demanding, and the difference between good and bad personnel really matters; one mistake can ruin an entire possession. 

When you take a look at Sacramento’s roster, it is very light on impact defenders. Davion Mitchell is certainly one; as a 6’2 minus shooter, there are too many potential ways he could be played off the floor to mark him down as a for-sure difference-maker in any series. Trade deadline acquisition Kessler Edwards demonstrated real defensive competence at the NBA level last season with the Nets, but he’s been a bit player for this team. Fox has really improved this season, particularly on the ball, but Huerter and Monk are players that teams will gladly target down the stretch of games. The best defender in the starting lineup in terms of both ability and versatility is probably Harrison Barnes – a good player enjoying a nice season, but not a player any contender would bring on board as a primary stopper. The Kings’ personnel issues exacerbate the problems of the only defense their All-Star center can run, and that’s a potential recipe for disaster.

- On the topic of centers, it’s also crucial to note that behind Sabonis, there is a glaring hole in Sacramento’s depth chart. Brown has tried many different options, but has never found one that convincingly did what he wished out of the spot – do at least a little bit of what Sabonis does in terms of screening and setting the table, while hopefully giving the team a much-needed boost in rim protection. Chimezie Metu has become one of many San Antonio Spurs draftees to significantly outplay their draft position (49th overall in 2018), and he gives the Kings a few real bonuses, including a degree of vertical spacing they don’t otherwise have from the center position. But his role on offense is very simple and limited; he’s done well with it, but the Kings can only gain so much out of his minutes, especially when what Sabonis brings as a fulcrum of their offense is so important, and so sorely missed.

The other options on the roster have less than inspired. Richaun Holmes – two years removed from a big four-year payday – has found himself on the outside looking in all season. This, again, largely isn’t his fault; Holmes is a nice player who could absolutely play a role on a good team, but the specific needs of Sacramento out of their centers just don’t mesh with his game. Alex Len – the former top-five draft pick turned break-glass-in-case-of-emergency backup center – can provide a boost, but his reputation should tell you all you need to know about the degree to which NBA coaches have always trusted him with big minutes in high-leverage moments. One need only look to the 2020-21 Washington Wizards, which featured a three-headed center rotation of Len, Robin Lopez and Daniel Gafford by the end of the season. Len was a nice stopgap, but Lopez’s offensive reliability and Gafford’s breakout on defense gave them both unique benefits that Len just couldn’t. Lopez has been a backup big ever since that season; Gafford’s longtime propensity for fouling has stunted his growth from that campaign. I say these things to say that the bar here is not very high, and Len was pretty evidently the third-most impactful of the group. This is not meant as hate to Len in any way, shape or form, but to rather contextualize the state of Sacramento’s backup big man room.

This could prove consequential in a few ways. I’ve touched on the dropoff from Sabonis to his backups in terms of offensive role and responsibility – when a team is this reliant on a player, their numbers without him on the court often look nasty, especially without genuine high-level backups (see: the Atlanta Hawks for Trae Young’s entire career). This should be alleviated some in the playoffs by Fox; his dynamism and creativity should hopefully keep the offense alive, at least enough, while Sabonis sits. This is where the margin for error shrinks for Sabonis – he’s averaging a career-high in fouls per game, and picked up five or more in 21 of 79 appearances this season. Big men picking up fouls can change the tenor of any playoff game; one need only look to Karl-Anthony Towns’ struggles in last year’s Play-In Tournament and first-round loss to the Memphis Grizzlies, or Jonas Valanciunas’ inability to stay on the floor when those Grizzlies were in the Play-In themselves versus Golden State in 2021. The Wolves had Naz Reid; the Grizzlies had Xavier Tillman and Brandon Clarke. The Kings have nobody close to those players in terms of reliability off the bench. If Sabonis picks up a bunch of fouls in some of these games, things could go south pretty fast.

- If we’re to zoom out a bit in the Western Conference, the Kings’ deficiencies in one more category become clear – experience. When juxtaposed with the rest of the West’s top eight, this is stark: all of Denver, Memphis, Phoenix and the LA teams have won at least one playoff series with their primary cores, and Minnesota and New Orleans are both coming off of 2022 playoff berths. The closest team to Sacramento in terms of playoff experience in the entire Western Conference postseason race is the Oklahoma City Thunder, with an average age of 22.6 years old. None of this is good. It’s also baked into the circumstances the Kings have found themselves in; when you miss the playoffs for 16 years in a row, these things will happen.

What really doesn’t help is the lack of postseason experience in general across the roster. The only rotation piece with deep playoff experience is Barnes, a member of those title-winning 2015 Warriors and the 73-win team that lost in the Finals the next year. But Barnes hasn’t played a playoff game since Game 7 of those Finals; it’s been a long, long time since then. Huerter would probably be next; we’re only two years removed from the Hawks’ run to the Eastern Conference Finals, of which he played a big part. Outside of that, though, it’s pretty bleak; Sabonis has two playoff runs under his belt (that he was healthy for; his Pacers made the 2020 playoffs but he missed the Orlando Bubble with an injury), none past the first round, and none since 2019; this will be the first taste of playoff basketball for rotation mainstays Fox, Monk and Mitchell – and Murray, who’s doing all of this for the first time. The Kings haven’t shied away from a challenge once this season, but experience is the ultimate teacher, and they still have a lot to learn. The four-time – and reigning – champions they’re facing in Round 1 know all of this, and are surely ready to capitalize. The same, though, could be said for just about any opponent the Kings may face in a playoff run – their potential Round 2 opponents include a Grizzlies team concluding its second consecutive 50-win season with a playoff series win already under their belts, and LeBron James. It would be naive to ignore this angle of everything, as it may wind up the most consequential thing about these Kings. Other teams surely aren’t.

Lineup I Want To See

De’Aaron Fox, Malik Monk, Kevin Huerter, Keegan Murray, Domantas Sabonis

Matchup Thoughts

First Round vs. GSW (6)

Kings/Warriors is just a dream matchup in so many ways. The league’s modern dynasty, coming off of four championships in eight years, against the team that just broke the longest postseason drought in the history of American professional sports. The team that changed NBA offense forever against (statistically) the greatest offense in the history of the league. There are surely personal angles within it, too – not only was Sacramento’s starting power forward, Barnes, a member of Golden State’s first championship team, but the Kings’ new coach is coming off a six-year run with the franchise as an assistant that spanned the other three. If that wasn’t enough, Sacramento’s owner Vivek Ranadive started as a partial owner of the Warriors, before purchasing the Kings to keep them in Sacramento in 2013. Oh, and they play right next to each other. Tune in, folks.

All of those goodies, and we haven’t discussed the on-court matchups once. Fox and Huerter versus Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson promises to be an offensive showing for the ages between backcourts – Huerter is reminiscent of Thompson as taller guards who can light the planet on fire. Stylistically, these two teams play somewhat similarly, built around movement and on-the-fly decision-making. The X-factor in that regard may be Draymond Green, the most intelligent defensive player of this (any?) generation, able to dissect every play as it happens and put himself and his teammates in position to stop it. His play against Sabonis projects to be big – if Sabonis is matched up on Kevon Looney, that will come as a helper and disruptor; if he guards Sabonis himself, it will be about rugged on-ball defense so Golden State’s other defenders can stay home, plugging as many holes as possible by letting the defense play one-on-one. The potential presence of Andrew Wiggins is also a big deal, as Golden State’s primary wing stopper and an offensive threat as a scorer and rebounder.

Golden State’s home/road disparity could also play a factor here – but so could Sacramento’s. The Warriors have notoriously been an elite defensive team at home and an abysmal one on the road, but what isn’t often discussed is that the Kings are a good defense on the road (eighth leaguewide), and a horrible one at home (29th leaguewide). Counter this with the fact that while they have the best offensive rating of all time, the Kings’ road offense isn’t even the best in the NBA (that honor would go to the New York Knicks). Sacramento’s home offensive rating is over three points per 100 possessions higher than their all-time leading average for the whole season – their home games have been shootouts of epic proportions. Golden State’s tendencies play right into this, and that works in Sacramento’s favor. Expect games at Golden One Center to be high-scoring, incredibly fun affairs, while games at Chase Center should more closely resemble those of a usual playoff series. At least, that’s probably how the Kings are going to want it; Golden State is definitely going to come in and try and disrupt that from happening.

An underrated aspect of this matchup, at least from my perspective, is the fact that Brown sat on Golden State’s bench for six seasons and three championships – including last year’s. As such, Brown knows more than probably any active head coach about Golden State’s schemes and internal workings, an advantage you can understate at your own risk. See the 2007 playoffs – the 42-40 “We Believe” Golden State Warriors stunned the 67-win Dallas Mavericks in the first round,  who were coming off a Finals run and featuring league MVP Dirk Nowitzki. It is no coincidence that those Warriors were coached by Don Nelson, Nowitzki’s first coach in the NBA, and one of the few humans who knew as much as he did about Nowitzki and his tendencies. Then again, you can never underestimate the heart of a champion, as last year proved. Sacramento is going to play their game; Golden State is going to play theirs. It’s hard to doubt the reigning champs, but it’s also hard to pick the team without home court advantage (which, after 16 seasons without a playoff game, projects to be huge for Sacramento). This series projects to be chaos and could end one of many ways – ultimately, I’d have to lean Warriors in six or seven games.

Golden State Warriors

Record: 44-38

Seed: 6

Opponent: Sacramento

Notable Team Stats (per Cleaning the Glass)

ORTG: 116.6 (8th leaguewide)

DRTG: 114.2 (12th leaguewide)

Net Differential: +2.4 (T-8th leaguewide)

3PT Frequency: 44.7% (1st leaguewide)

Rim Shot Frequency: 26.9% (29th leaguewide)

3PT%: 39.1% (T-1st leaguewide)

Rim FG%: 69.8% (3rd leaguewide)

eFG%: 57.4% (3rd leaguewide)

TOV%: 15.8% (29th leaguewide)

FT Rate: 18.0 (29th leaguewide)

The Good

- The reigning champs, the league’s modern dynasty. After a regular season that probably went as nobody in The Bay hoped or expected, Golden State quietly enters the playoffs with a top-10 net rating on the season. What went wrong this season for the Warriors has been discussed ad nauseam – and will be discussed later – and the standard this organization has set for success is higher than what we got this year, but there are more than a few encouraging signs to suggest that this group has a repeat run in them somewhere. And, as it has for the better part of a decade now, it all starts with Steph, Klay and Draymond.

If you remove the Warriors’ cursed 2020 season in which he only played five games, Stephen Curry has missed his most time since 2018, so he isn’t likely to take home another First Team All-NBA nod. Don’t let that fool you: Curry still turned in one of the very best seasons in the league when he was healthy. 29 points per game on shooting splits that fell decimal points short of his second career 50/40/90 season (boo hoo), including an absolutely ludicrous 42% on over eleven three-point attempts per game. He’s been as impactful as always, too – the Warriors’ offense is seven points per 100 possessions better with Curry on the floor, and in those minutes they play like the best offense in the NBA. And – to the extent that this matters – Curry’s regular season numbers are almost universally up across the board from last year. Curry has always been at the core of all of Golden State’s success. That he hasn’t slowed down one bit gives the Warriors a chance almost by default.

Curry wasn’t the only Splash Bro to turn in a historic season. Klay Thompson, in his first full season since tearing his ACL and then his Achilles in consecutive seasons, not only led the NBA in made three-pointers this season, but joined Curry (who did it four times) and James Harden as the only players in NBA history to make over 300 three-pointers in a season. 2023 felt like a nostalgia tour for Thompson, making NBA history with ridiculous shooting performances left and right; he turned in his highest scoring average since 2017 and hit 12 three-pointers in a game twice, a feat only Thompson and Curry have accomplished multiple times for their careers. His shot is as deadly as ever, and he’s taking more threes than he ever has. Let’s take a moment and commemorate Thompson for the work he’s put in to return to this level – the injuries he suffered in back-to-back seasons culminating in over two years of time missed could – and honestly should – have spelled doom for his status as an elite NBA player. Yet here he is, doing the things he did before at just as high of a level. He isn’t the defensive player on a possession-by-possession basis that he once was, but all things considered, you cannot be upset with the player Thompson is in 2023 – if anything, you have to respect it. It also means that the reigning champs are entering the postseason with the league leader in made threes – and his name isn’t Steph Curry.

The third member of Golden State’s dynastic triad, Draymond Green, entered this year under, shall we say, less than favorable circumstances of his own doing. Serious questions were being asked about how it would affect the Warriors’ upcoming season, as well as Green’s play. And while this season went wrong for the Dubs in many ways, Green’s play was by and large not one of them. The Warriors’ defense struggled consistently throughout the season; on the road they couldn’t stop a rock; Golden State missed Andrew Wiggins with injury and personal leave; players from last year’s championship squad like Otto Porter Jr. and Gary Payton II left in free agency (and while Payton II returned at the deadline, he suited up for a grand total of seven games with the Warriors this year); and the team was forced to play a whole suite of young players that were only relied upon in bit roles last season, if any. Throughout – and in spite of – all of that, though, the Warriors played at an elite defensive level when Green was on the floor; the team’s defense truly tanked with him on the bench. Green was an All-Defense caliber player again this season, which shouldn’t come entirely as a surprise considering he was the runaway favorite for Defensive Player of the Year last season before he got hurt (and, you know, they won the title last season). Green also exhibited a newfound sense of offensive aggression relative to the version we’ve gotten for the last few years; he attempted his most shots per game since 2019-20, when the Warriors were by and large playing for lottery position. Green can still make possessions on offense feel like a five-on-four for the Warriors sometimes, but that uptick is something.

The point here is that in spite of all the drama, inconsistency, and disappointment around the Warriors as a team this year, each of Curry, Thompson and Green are playing at a high level. This is a core that, when all three start every game, has never lost a playoff series together. We just saw them win the whole thing last year after consecutive seasons out of the playoffs, despite Thompson joining the crew midway through the season. As long as these three are together and look like themselves, it’s a risky proposition to bet against Golden State in a playoff series.

- There are things to be excited about from more Warriors than just those three, though. Kevon Looney played in all 82 games this season and led the NBA in offensive rebounds, an impressive set of feats considering the turmoil around him. Looney continues to bring everything Golden State has ever needed out of the center spot: a completely selfless attitude, rock hard screens, an institutional knowledge of the scheme and his teammates, high-level defense, and an unkickable motor. Looney was an integral part to Golden State’s championship run last season, and after an early career plagued by injuries, has turned into an iron man for a team that has been chasing continuity all season. Golden State has several question marks headed into the postseason; Looney is emphatically not one.

Another 2022 champion who’s stepped up to the plate this season has been Jonathan Kuminga, the seventh pick in the 2021 NBA draft who, after a rookie season full of promise and ultimately not a ton else, has grown in some tangible ways for this Warriors squad that desperately needed players to step up throughout the year. Kuminga’s biggest draw has always been his incredible athleticism, and he’s begun the process of refining that into some really beneficial skills. Notably, his point of attack defense has really grown this season; for a team that’s struggled to get stops all year, that has been nothing short of huge. His wingspan and athleticism make getting by him difficult, and as he’s learned the ins and outs of NBA defense, he’s only grown more and more disruptive as the season has progressed. That athleticism also serves him well as a cutter and play-finisher around the rim, a threat to zip through open space, catch the ball, and baptize anyone unlucky enough to be in the way, or function as a lob threat out of the dunker spot, a role popularized in Golden State by wings such as Andre Iguodala over the years. Importantly for the Warriors, Kuminga’s ability to read the floor and make the proper passing reads has improved as well, a further demonstration that the Warriors’ system is starting to click in his head. The jumpshot hasn’t really come around yet, but Kuminga’s only 20; with all the other ways he’s grown this year, he can still help Golden State now.

Part of what made last years’ Warriors work so well was the veteran talent being able to fit in so well – a hallmark of this run. Players like the aforementioned Porter Jr. and Payton II, as well as Nemanja Bjelica, all played roles on last year’s run before moving on in the summer, and everyone knew the Warriors would have to replace that production – and that banking entirely on internal growth couldn’t be the answer. Enter Donte DiVincenzo, the NCAA and NBA champion whose career has been defined by defense, IQ and, above all, heart. Pundits universally let out a groan when the signing was announced, proclaiming that DiVincenzo’s fit in The Bay was almost going to be too perfect. As it turns out, the people who get paid to cover this sport are paid for a reason. DiVincenzo’s fit in Golden State has been just about as hand-in-glove as everyone anticipated, and he’s been a consistent bright spot on a team lacking in those. His rebounding at his height, probably the best statistical indicator of his gritty and all-out style of play, is a major plus for a team so talented on the perimeter – his offensive rebounds (often over one or multiple taller defenders) cleans up misses and gives Golden State’s incredible shooters more bites at the apple. His role on offense – connector – is exactly the kind that Golden State has coveted for the last decade; watch DiVincenzo play next to Curry, Thompson and the rest of the Warriors for a few minutes and it becomes clear why.

With Andrew Wiggins slated to return to the Warriors’ lineup for Game 1 of the playoffs, and Payton II healthy and back in the lineup already, the Warriors will be adding two major reinforcements in the playoffs, two important pieces in their championship run a season ago. Less is certain about the 2023 Warriors than in 2022, but the return of two known quantities that the team missed for much of this season will ease a lot of that. There’s a possibility that the 2023 playoff Warriors answer all the questions the 2023 regular season Warriors made us ask, and make us look foolish for asking them in the first place. Things are coming together for this team at the right time. In the words of legendary coach Rudy Tomjanovich: “Never underestimate the heart of a champion.”

- Using Golden State’s statistical profile from the course of this season should be done with a significant amount of risk awareness – it is hard to find a team this flat-out enigmatic, especially given the context that they just won the title. But if one were to only look at Golden State’s performance at home, it’s enough to instill some real confidence in this group. Again, all of this comes with the caveat that the Warriors were routinely abysmal on the road all year, something that champions simply aren’t.

At home this year, the Warriors had the fourth highest net rating in the NBA, behind only Memphis (a 52-win team), Denver (a 54-win team), and Boston (a 57-win team). They hold the NBA’s third best home record, at 33-8, behind just Memphis and Denver. Offensively, there isn’t much to see that wasn’t the case all season: a top-10 mark despite turning the ball over more and getting to the free throw line less than nearly anyone in the league, due in large part to incredibly efficient shooting (thanks, Steph and Klay). It’s the defensive numbers that pop off the page. The Warriors’ defense at home ranked third in the league behind just Memphis and Cleveland, who fought (alongside Milwaukee) for the title of best defense in the entire NBA across the year. Opponents are held to a worse effective field goal percentage in Chase Center than any arena across the NBA outside of Tennessee; the Warriors rebound at a top-10 mark at home as well. Part of how they do it is by walling off the paint: opponents shoot the fewest percentage of their shots at the rim against the Warriors out of any team in the league at home. (Another potential reason why their defense is so much worse on the road? Opponents have shot over 40% from 3 against them on the season on the road – worst in the league – compared to just 33% at home – third best.) 

These numbers aren’t meant to proclaim that Golden State is about to march through the West again and win their second consecutive championship, and fifth in nine years. This season has gone nowhere near well enough for anyone to reasonably believe that with conviction right now. I’m bringing them up to show that while they haven’t hit it on the road, the level that Golden State has reached in the past – the level they’ll need to reach if they want to do this thing again – isn’t gone. They still have it in them to be one of the best teams in the NBA. Over the past two weeks, Golden State owns the NBA’s best offense, its second best defense, and its best net rating – by a mile. That sample is tiny. The numbers are also pretty insane. It might require catching some lightning in a bottle on the road; the playoffs might just wake this group up and it’s right back to old habits. We won’t know until we watch. What we do know is that this is a potential sleeping giant if they can get back on track.

The Bad

- I ended “The Good” with a section on Golden State’s home performance, so it feels right to start this one with their play on the road. Posting the third worst road record in the NBA, behind only Detroit, Houston and San Antonio (the three worst teams in the NBA), and the league’s 23rd-ranked road net rating (behind the aforementioned three teams, Indiana, Charlotte, Portland and Orlando), it’s hard to understate how bad this team was away from The Bay. And though it’s true they closed their season with consecutive road wins, they came against a Sacramento team resting its big names and a Portland team actively playing for lottery position; their most recent road game before those was a loss to Denver. The Warriors’ offense on the road actually ranks tenth leaguewide – all of their issues on the road start and end with their 28th ranked defense.

I mentioned before that the Warriors get lit up on the road – it’s easy to look at the immense shooting numbers from opponents and assume luck, and that surely plays a role, but it also goes to demonstrate that teams have been able to beat the Warriors at their own game when they aren’t in the comfort of their home. One could reasonably wonder if teams, knowing who they’re going to be up against and that they’ve been challenged all year defensively, enter Warriors road games with an extra motivation to outshoot them. But the Warriors, a top-10 defensive rebounding unit at home, surrender a far higher percentage of offensive rebounds on the road, too; that is a formula that is almost never going to win you many games. Golden State’s inability to find any sort of baseline for winning competitive games on the road has to be seen as a concern. It’s gotten to the point where the greatness of Curry, Green and Thompson can’t in good faith be blindly thrown over these issues like they have been able to during this championship era. This is a real problem; without homecourt in any round barring an upset, Golden State’s road woes could very easily end their pursuit of repeat early.

- I would like to preface this section by saying that Jordan Poole – appearing in all 82 games and breaking the 20-point-per-game mark for the first time in his career – objectively did not have a bad season. You cannot do what he did in every game for a team that won more than it lost and have a bad season. But he’s being covered in “The Bad” because, as odd and unfair as it is to say, Poole simply wasn’t good enough. Again, this is all unfair in a vacuum – Poole is being held to a much higher standard in this regard than just about any 23-year-old non-All-Star across the NBA. But that’s life when the reigning champions give you a big contract and slot you in as an integral piece to a repeat. Golden State’s vision for Poole – the Splash Cousin, the third head of the offensive snake that turns Golden State from unguardable to cheat code – hasn’t come to fruition yet. And, stressing this again, that’s okay long-term. Poole isn’t done growing. But it might not be okay right now.

The first cause for concern is Poole’s production drop coming off the bench. As a starter this season, Poole averaged over 24 points per game in the starting lineup this season but just under 16 off the bench. Now, this can be contextualized; Poole averaged seven more minutes per game in the games he started than those he didn’t, and the instances in which he did were games in which Curry or Thompson sat, increasing his offensive responsibilities. But Poole started 43 games this season; that he averaged over eight more points per game in those appearances than the 39 that he came off the pine has to be at least eyebrow-raising. 

When the Warriors are at full strength – which they’d need to be in any world that they win a title – Curry, Thompson, Wiggins and Green are locks to start. Looney may, depending on the matchup, but the Warriors have used Green as a center as much as ever this year, and Looney came off the pine for many of Golden State’s playoff games last year. In his place was Otto Porter Jr., who had the size, switchability, and shooting to survive on both ends of the floor. If that becomes Poole this year (as opposed to, say DiVincenzo), Golden State runs into issues on both ends. Offensively, who’s going to create with the second unit without overtaxing anyone’s minutes? If it’s Poole anyway, why start him? Defensively, Poole and Curry together is a very small backcourt. In a league trending towards size across the positional spectrum, and for a starting lineup already built to minimize any advantages teams try to create with Curry on defense, that could prove a death knell. Golden State’s defense can’t really afford that. But if Poole is so clearly not at his best off the bench, and the Warriors will need him coming off the bench, then Poole runs into a quandary: the best version of Golden State does not equal the best version of Poole, at least for this run.

There are some bigger picture issues that have made Poole’s season rockier than the Warriors surely hoped for, too. In order to be a great Golden State Warrior under Steve Kerr, you need a baseline of basketball IQ, as well as a willingness to sacrifice ego for the better play, consistently and forcefully. That's why veterans have traditionally done so well in this system; it’s easier to convince players who have been around and seen a few things to buy into a system or role – especially next to Steph Curry. For a player like Poole, drafted by the organization and billed as its next chapter, that isn’t so easy – especially considering how immensely talented he is. The Warriors clearly want Poole to fit in as an extension of this core, but within it. Poole plays like he wants to stand out, with his handles, deep shooting and propensity for highlight plays. None of this is inherently bad; again, it’s pretty normal 23-year-old stuff. But when Poole tries to fit in, when Kerr asks him to take on responsibilities within Golden State’s system, he clearly looks less comfortable than when he’s simply asked to go out and get a bucket. It’s an ideological conflict, one that this franchise hasn’t experienced during this run. They absolutely have time to figure it out – Poole is locked down for the foreseeable future. That doesn’t mean that Poole’s relative disharmony with the way the Warriors want him to play can’t hurt this team right now.

- As is a theme in this Western Conference, the greatest fear about these Warriors can be boiled down to what we don’t know. Ever since the video of Draymond Green punching Poole in the face during a preseason practice was made available to the public, this Warriors season has been a whirlwind of turmoil. From the fallout of that, to their inconsistency on the court, to losing Curry and Wiggins for extended stretches of the season, to giving up on oft-maligned (by Warriors media) center James Wiseman, whom they drafted second overall not three years ago, this has been a season for the ages for all the wrong reasons. There is so much more to be said about many of these issues that extends beyond what we see on the court. It’s not my place to talk about them, as I don’t know what goes on behind the scenes, but there have been enough whispers all year about strained dynamics throughout the Warriors organization to think that where there’s smoke, there’s fire. 

The thing with all of that is, we just don’t know what’s happening. Wiggins and Payton II project to help this team in a major way; they’ve combined for a single-digit number of games for Golden State over the last couple of months, and we’re nearly a year removed from the last time the Warriors played games with the both of them together – we can project how we think it’ll go, but we just don’t know. They’ve been in many playoff series before; surely, they’re able to turn up their road defense. Will they? We just don’t know. This is a team that’s defined NBA basketball for the last decade, but there are way more question marks surrounding this version of the Warriors than any headed into the playoffs in the Kerr era. The fact that the outcome against their first round opponent, who just ended the longest playoff drought in American professional sports history, isn’t a formality – the fact they don’t even have homecourt – screams to the fact that with the 2023 Golden State Warriors, there is so much that we just don’t know.

Lineup I Want To See

Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Donte DiVincenzo, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green

Matchup Thoughts

First Round vs. SAC (3)

This series has the promise to be one of the most entertaining in the playoffs. Two teams on the polar opposite of the NBA’s totem pole for the last decade, with connections all throughout – coaching, ownership, personnel, geography. The Warriors have something to prove; the Kings have to feel like they do too. Two dynamic backcourts, two big men essential to the lifeblood of the team. This season, not a whole ton of defense. And in a shocking twist of fate, the underdog – the plucky first-timers – have homecourt advantage. This northern California showdown has all the ingredients for a first round classic.

The battle between Green and Kings star center Domantas Sabonis is going to be central to all of this for Golden State. Sabonis is the lifeblood of Sacramento’s offense, the center of so much of their offense as a dribble handoff hub and low post bruiser. Golden State won’t be able to even try and space Sabonis off the floor as long as Green is on it – they’re both going to play a big role. Green’s elite defense in all roles has unlocked Golden State’s dynastic defense, but he’s going to have his hands full here. What makes Green so great is his ability to dissect plays in real time, all the time. Sacramento’s historically great offense has been defined by doing everything, everywhere all at once. Draymond’s all-time processing speed and defensive instincts are going to be put to the ultimate test, and it all starts with Sabonis. Looney and Sabonis project to match up against each other, but he’ll have to deal with all 240 pounds of Sabonis often as well. Green and Sabonis will be in a playmaking chess match all series; for Golden State to win, the winner is probably going to need to be Draymond Green.

It’s been established how different Golden State’s defense is on the road versus at home already. But Sacramento is sneakily a very erratic home/road defensive team too, but not in the way you’d expect. The Kings hold the 29th ranked home defense in the NBA – and its best offense by a lot. On the road, when the offense isn’t as great (they’ll have to settle for a mere second), the Kings hold the eighth best defense in the league. That means that, if the regular season trends hold up, games in Sacramento project to be shootouts of epic proportions, while Warriors home games will look like, you know, actual NBA playoff games. One would imagine that favors the Kings, holders of the NBA’s best regular season offensive rating of all time. They have shooters in Kevin Huerter, Malik Monk and Keegan Murray, former Warrior (and NBA champion) Harrison Barnes as a rim pressure release valve, and two All-Stars in Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox. But a shootout against Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson is rarely a good idea. Games in Golden State, though – which should be slower, more normal-scoring affairs – will see the Warriors go face-to-face with Fox down the stretch, the NBA’s premier clutch performer this year. Curry versus Fox should be fun almost no matter what happens this series.

Of course, none of this matters if the Warriors flip the proverbial switch and become The Warriors again, an outcome that we can’t rule out, no matter how unlikely you personally believe in it happening. Golden State has as fortunate of a matchup to “get right” as they could have, not only because of the Kings’ freshness to this stage – the travel between San Francisco and Sacramento is beyond convenient. The Kings aren’t going to roll over and die on their own; Golden State has the ability in them to make that happen. This series really might be as simple as that. In all, I’d give the Warriors the nod in six or seven – as much as I love the Kings and think they have a chance in this one, I can’t imagine Golden State goes out like this. In their next series, be it versus Memphis or Los Angeles, and beyond, who knows – we’ll find out if we get there.