Kyle Lowry’s Case for the Hall of Fame
This is a piece I wrote last summer on a small blogging site called Amino, and I figured I’d open this blog with it. The stats are updated and I added some things to further the case, as he has another year under his belt. Additionally, I haven’t quite figured out how to properly use and cite images without running the risk of copyright, so there are no pictures yet. I hope you all enjoy this piece and stick around for more!
Kyle Lowry is one of the more polarizing players in the NBA. On one hand, he's been one of the more consistently great point guards in the league this decade, leading the Raptors to their most successful stretch in team history, culminating with an NBA title last season. On the other, he's been given a notorious (albeit undeserved) reputation as a playoff choker, and, more importantly, he has never been one of the truly elite players in the NBA. Even at his own position this holds true; players like Chris Paul, Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook and Damian Lillard have always overshadowed Lowry and his productivity, and for good reason. He has mastered the role of the "B-class" star, constantly under-appreciated and consistently very good.
But starting last summer, a new conversation has made its way through NBA fandom: whether or not Lowry is worthy of induction into the Hall of Fame. After winning an NBA championship and earning his 6th consecutive All-Star selection, Basketball Reference's Hall of Fame Probability calculator gives Lowry an 85.74% chance of making it if he were to retire today, sparking a series of debates on how true this is. As far as sports debate goes, this is an incredibly complex topic. Kyle Lowry is an enigma. He has a number of accolades, yet his raw statistical numbers are underwhelming, because his impact on games goes so far beyond the box score, more so than perhaps any player in the league today. He was an All-Star and vital contributor on a championship team, yet the perception of him is still that he shrinks when it matters. So the question has raged on: Is Kyle Lowry a Hall of Famer?
Ultimately, there is no real answer yet- Lowry's career hasn't finished, so he has many more years to either help or harm his case. But here, I'm going to try and argue for him in a few ways: how he stacks up to Hall of Fame point guards, what he needs to do to solidify his case, and provide some context to his career.
. This is obviously subjective and debatable, but I hope you enjoy.
The Statistics
Let's start by analyzing Kyle Lowry's career from a statistical standpoint. While raw stats aren't close to an end-all-be-all on determining a player's worth, it's a good place to start. I decided here to compare Kyle Lowry's career averages to that of the average Hall of Fame point guard. However, lists of this manner do not exist anywhere I could find, so I calculated these stats myself using the career averages of all 20 point guards in the Hall of Fame for their NBA careers (many played before steals and blocks were recorded; they weren't weighed into those respective averages) and compared them to Lowry's.
Points: Lowry- 14.7 | HoFer- 16.49
Rebounds: Lowry- 4.3 | HoFer- 4.295
Assists: Lowry- 6.2 | HoFer- 7.105
Steals: Lowry- 1.4 | HoFer- 1.725
Blocks: Lowry- 0.3 | HoFer- 0.3
However, statistics are not the only criteria for making the Hall of Fame. Accolades also play a major role, so I included them as well (again, the All-NBA Third Team didn't always exist, so players that played before its inception weren't included in my calculation).
Championships: Lowry- 1 | HoFer- 1.95
All-Star Games: Lowry- 6 | HoFer- 7.85
All-NBA 1st Teams: Lowry- 0 | HoFer- 3.15
All-NBA 2nd Teams: Lowry- 0 | HoFer- 1.8
All-NBA 3rd Teams: Lowry- 1 | HoFer- 0.875
Obviously, these comparisons don't exactly make Lowry scream Hall of Famer at first glance. However, there are a couple of things you have to keep in mind. First, Lowry also has an Olympic gold medal, which is an important non-NBA addition to his resume (remember, it's the BASKETBALL Hall of Fame). Also, a lot of these stats are skewed. For instance, Oscar Robertson and Jerry West jack up the points averages, Magic Johnson, Slater Martin and Bob Cousy skew championships, and guys like Magic, John Stockton and Isiah Thomas inflate the assist numbers. Even the accolades aren't fully representative; West, Magic, Isiah and Oscar lift the average All-Star games a lot. So while it certainly doesn't help that Lowry has only ever made one All-NBA team (and a Third Team at that), the numbers don't exactly disqualify him from eligibility. It isn’t fair to compare all-time legends (as many point guards currently in the Hall of Fame are) with players of Lowry’s caliber, but just because he isn’t on that tier of legend status does not mean he can’t make the Hall of Fame. He also currently sits at 47th all-time in assists and 82nd all-time in steals at the time of this publishing, and he still has a lot of career left to rise to very respectable standings in both categories.
But there is more to Lowry’s story than the stats will show. Kyle Lowry's career has always been defined by his ability to impact the game far beyond the box score, even when he was a 20 point per game scorer, so the raw numbers don't come close to showing his full value. He has had a positive box plus-minus every year of his career except his second season, and has had 4 seasons with 10 or more win shares. Every advanced statistic points to Lowry being a winning player whenever he has stepped on the court, even before he became an All-Star. And we can't forget this: Lowry's career isn't close to ending yet. He still has plenty of time to rise in the all-time rankings, maybe add a couple more All-Star games, and perhaps keep contributing enough to contenders to win another championship. The book on Lowry has far from closed; rather, we are reading part of the way through, so it isn't fair to judge his whole career just yet.
Putting It Into Perspective
People love to draw comparisons between different players' careers and skillsets. Kobe Bryant and Michael Jordan, Dwyane Wade and Donovan Mitchell, Anthony Davis and Kevin Garnett, there are so many players both past and present to draw from and compare with one another. But it is really rare to find a truly accurate one, and Lowry has just that. A player who Lowry strikingly resembles from both a statistical and career standpoint is Chauncey Billups, who is not in the Hall of Fame right now due to eligibility, but surely will be in due time. Lowry and Billups have a lot in common. They started their careers off very slowly, and wound up playing on multiple teams for the first few years of his career. In time, however, they would establish themselves as elite defenders, great playmakers, and absolute winners. They were both starting point guards on championship teams and played vital roles in their team’s success, taking down their era's juggernaut in the process. They are the only 2 players in NBA history to not make the All-Star team for the first 8 seasons of their careers, only to go on to make 5 straight (Lowry has since become the first to make 6). Their careers were both defined by grit, elite defense, in-game impact that goes well beyond the box score, and a penchant for winning. Here is a comparison of Lowry's and Billups' career statistics and accolades:
Points: Lowry- 14.7 | Billups- 15.2
Rebounds: Lowry- 4.3 | Billups- 2.9
Assists: Lowry- 6.2 | Billups- 5.4
Steals: Lowry- 1.4 | Billups- 1.0
Blocks: Lowry- 0.3 | Billups- 0.2
FG%: Lowry- 42.4 | Billups- 41.5
3PT%: Lowry- 36.7 | Billups- 38.7
FT%: Lowry- 80.5 | Billups- 89.4
All-Star Games: Lowry- 6 | Billups- 5
All-NBA 1st Teams: Lowry- 0 | Billups- 0
All-NBA 2nd Teams: Lowry- 0 | Billups- 1
All-NBA 3rd Teams: Lowry- 1 | Billups- 2
All-Defensive 1st Teams: Lowry- 0 | Billups- 0
All-Defensive 2nd Teams: Lowry- 0 | Billups- 2
Championships: Lowry- 1 | Billups- 1
FMVPs: Lowry- 0 | Billups- 1
Obviously, there are a couple key differences, the main one being Chauncey's Finals MVP award, which absolutely skyrocketed his legacy as an all-time great point guard. But Billups wasn't playing on the same team as a Kawhi Leonard; his teammates were stars, sure, but Rasheed Wallace is not the Klaw. And though Chauncey was a semi-legitimate MVP candidate for a few years, that had a lot more to do with the strength of the teams he played for than anything else. The All-Defensive teams are also slightly misleading; though Lowry has never made one, he has been in contention year in and year out for a long time. Beyond that, Billups and Lowry have a striking amount in common, and Lowry actually beats out Billups in multiple statistical categories (though both players built careers off of doing much more than putting numbers on the board). And though the Finals MVP does put Billups ahead of Lowry right now, Lowry has time to outweigh that from a career standpoint with other accomplishments. Chauncey Billups is a near lock for the Hall of Fame. Not first ballot, but he'll get in. So why not Kyle Lowry?
How He Can Solidify His Case
Kyle Lowry has a real shot at the Hall of Fame, but he still has an entire leg of his career left to play, and that could make or break his legacy. In order for him to retire as a surefire Hall of Famer, he needs to do a couple things. Ideally, he could make one or two more All-Star games, and that isn't out of the picture, especially if he stays in the East for the next couple years, whether it be in Toronto or somewhere else. But even if that doesn't happen, he can still cement his legacy by continuing to be a productive, winning player for the rest of his career. As he ages and begins to take on less of the load for his team, he needs to continue making winning plays, stay an ace on the defensive end of the floor, and provide the leadership necessary for a title contender. Considering that his career to this point has been defined by all of these traits, this isn’t very hard to imagine seeing happen. There are many instances of players using the last portion of their careers to solidify their Hall of Fame status- Bill Walton, Bernard King, and, yes, Chauncey Billups, among others. Lowry's game might not age as well as it might seem (the level at which he sacrifices his body is absurd for a player his size and age), but if he learns how to adapt his game in a way that preserves his body while still maximizing his effectiveness, then he could very well serve as a contributor to a championship team for years to come. If that happens, then Lowry could be well on his way to a spot in Springfield.
Misconceptions & Lowry's Impact on the League
Here, I'm going to try and present my personal case for Lowry. Before we really get to that, though, a major misconception about Lowry must be cleared up. Over the years, Lowry has been given the reputation as a choker in the playoffs, particularly against the Cavaliers led by LeBron James. This reputation is not only undeserved, but blatantly untrue. The only time you can really say Kyle Lowry choked in the playoffs was in 2015 against the Washington Wizards. But every year other than that, Lowry actually played just as good- and often times better- in the postseason; they just ran into the King every year. In the playoffs, Kyle Lowry has posted a positive box plus-minus every season except for the infamous 2015 series and in 2009, when he was the backup point guard on the Houston Rockets. One bad series should not dictate a player’s reputation for their career. The DeRozan-Lowry Raptors were a victim of circumstance; no Eastern Conference team could beat those Cavaliers, so what makes Lowry a choke artist for not doing it either? He is a good postseason performer who just so happened to run into LeBron James a few too many times, and he proved it last season. A very overlooked performance during these playoffs was Lowry's closeout Game 6 versus the Warriors to clinch the championship. Not only was he tied to lead the team in scoring with 26 points, but he became the fastest player in NBA Finals history to reach double-digit points in a game. He showed up to win, and scored 10 points in the first 2 minutes of the game set the tone for the rest of the team to follow suit and seal a championship. If that isn't good playoff performance, then I don't know what is.
With that out of the way, let's talk about his impact on the league, and in particular, the Toronto Raptors. Kyle Lowry has a serious case for the greatest Raptor of all time. He's at or near the top of many statistical leaderboards- 2nd in games played, 2nd in minutes, 6th in rebounds (as a 6'1 guard!), 1st in assists, 1st in steals, and 3rd in points. On top of that, he's the franchise's leader in win shares (both offensive and defensive), as well as VORP, and ranks second in box plus-minus behind Vince Carter. Simply put, the guy is a Raptors legend. The competition is pretty fierce, with players like Carter, Chris Bosh and DeMar DeRozan in the mix as well, but Lowry did things none of them did in their time up north. He came to Toronto and immediately made them a winning team (they have won more games every season he has played there aside from last season, when they dropped from 59 to 58, which is negligible), something Bosh could never do, and Carter couldn't sustain. And unlike DeRozan, he helped the franchise reach the promised land, something that has to be weighed heavily in the discussion a franchise's all-time greats. Those two factors combined give Lowry at the very least a seat at the table, if not putting him at the head. A player's impact on the franchise they played for is a very underrated addition to a Hall of Fame berth. Look at a player like Marc Gasol. He has solidified his Hall of Fame odds with his championship and international success last summer, but before that, it was still somewhat up for debate from a purely accolade-based standpoint. However, his impact on the Grizzlies franchise played a key part in the general belief that he would someday make it to Springfield even before he won a title. Most casual fans don't realize this, but the same argument can and should be used for Lowry.
Another thing that really helps Lowry's case, especially when talking about his statistics, is putting them into the proper context. Lowry's stats often don't jump off the page, but that doesn't mean his impact is marginal. In reality, it's the exact opposite. Lowry is probably the greatest player whose impact goes beyond the box score of this generation. His basketball intellect is on par with some of the smartest players in the league. He will always make the extra pass, or make the winning play at the cost of his own body (the number of charges he draws for a player his size and age with a bad back is, again, absurd). He reads the game like few others, and always knows where to be and what to do in order to help his team win. In addition, his defense has consistently been elite, especially for a player of his stature. His positioning and awareness off the ball are second to none, and his build and strength make mismatches nearly impossible when a big man posts him up. His rugged tenacity earned him a reputation early on as a dog on defense, and he's kept that throughout his career. When people talk about players whose impact goes beyond the box score, Kyle Lowry should be the first player to come to mind, and for good reason.
An incredibly underrated aspect of Lowry's entire career is his willingness and ability to take on any role his team needs in order to succeed. When the team needed him to score more, as they did in the DeRozan era, he averaged over 20 points per game. But as the roster changed, the team needed him to adopt a new role. With the introduction of Kawhi Leonard and the ascension of Pascal Siakam, Lowry wasn't being asked to score; rather, he became a facilitator, averaging a career high in assists per game and finishing second in the NBA last season. But when Kawhi left, a scoring void needed to be filled, and Lowry’s scoring flew right back up to 19 points per game this season. That willingness to do whatever the team needs at the cost of stats or recognition is the hallmark of a winning player, and for someone as good as Lowry to fully adopt that mentality is not only incredibly rare, but incredibly valuable to any winning team.
Guys like Lowry are really hard to come across. A player with his intelligence, defensive chops, and versatility is truly special. So many intangible factors go into making a player great, and Lowry possesses nearly all of them. Being one of the greatest players (if not the greatest) in the history of an entire franchise certainly doesn't hurt either. I believe that all of these things on top of everything else mentioned makes a pretty compelling case for Lowry to make the Hall of Fame.
Conclusion
The Basketball Hall of Fame is no joke. People like to take away from its eliteness by pointing out Player X or Player Y who they believe to be undeserving, but at the bottom line, you have to be great. Kyle Lowry is at worst good. Not only does he have a championship and multiple All-Star games, but he has a legacy both in Toronto as a legend and league-wide as one of the more unique stars in recent memory. His stats will never blow you away, but his performances will. He isn't flashy, but he wins. He isn't a superstar, but he doesn't need to be. He's the quietist All-Star in the league, which makes him not the most popular player, but still one of the best. His basketball intelligence is among the greatest in recent NBA history, as is his defensive ability and willingness. He is more versatile than anyone really gives him credit for, one of the most coveted traits one could want in a star player. And he still has many years left to add to his legacy.
But this is the Hall of freaking Fame we're talking about. And so the question is: Kyle Lowry is good, but is he great? Does he have the legacy plus the star to qualify as such? Ultimately, that's up to each individual person to decide. But I think he does. So to all those people out there who think there's no chance in hell he'll make it and I'm crazy for even bringing it up, I have this to say: The odds are higher than you think.