What the Houston Rockets Need To Do If They Want To Win the Title- and Why This Might Be Their Last Shot

There are so many words to describe the 2020 NBA season. Exciting, hectic, controversial, tragic, this season had it all. But if you were to boil it down into one word, it would probably be unorthodox. And as teams gear up for the playoffs in Orlando, a pecking order has been established. Milwaukee and the LA teams are the truest title contenders, while Boston, Toronto and Denver will play like they have a chance, which they do. Most of the rest of the teams will fall in line behind them, as per usual in the NBA. How orthodox. Considering this is 2020, though, there is bound to be at least one team which breaks this mold, and it just so happens to be the team that has broken basically every mold. The Houston Rockets’ analytically driven roster construction and style of play goes against nearly every convention established in the league since the 1940s. They have all but eliminated the midrange game, taking 3-pointers at an unprecedented rate. They decided that a conventional, non-shooting center doesn’t fit within their offensive principle, so they no longer play with one. Now, they play 48 minutes of micro-ball, with 5 players 6’7” or under jacking 3s and attacking the basket. Led by the offensive brilliance of James Harden and Russell Westbrook, Houston has created the most unorthodox roster in the history of basketball.

But with such unorthodoxy comes a lot of variance. The new-look Rockets have had games where they look - and play - unstoppable, followed by games where they could lose to the worst team in the league. That game-to-game swing can make the Rockets incredibly frustrating to watch - the upside is so, so, high, but the floor is hard to watch. Of all the teams in the NBA, the Rockets could lose in the first round or make the conference finals, and neither outcome would be surprising. And while they would certainly not be favored in any series against an LA team or Milwaukee, Houston is probably the only other team in the NBA with the upside to beat them 4 times. But for the Rockets to actually pull it off, they need to play their absolute best basketball. Here, I’m going to detail 4 things that absolutely need to go right for H-Town if they want to make a deep run into the postseason. If they can’t get these things down, they won’t stand a chance against the top of the league. But if they do, they have the ability to do something special.

Hit Their Threes

One would imagine that a team whose offense is entirely based around the 3-point shot would be near the top of the league in 3-point accuracy, but the Rockets aren’t actually that great of a shooting team. In fact, despite ranking 1st in the NBA in 3-point attempts per game this season, they rank 21st in 3PT%, only shooting 34.9% from deep as a team, and only one player (Ben McLemore) is shooting over 40% from distance (40.6%). At first glance, this might not seem to matter all that much: Houston is playing a mathematical game; at a certain point, high volume trumps low efficiency, which is backed up by the fact that Houston currently has the league’s 3rd best offense. But in the playoffs, one slump could cost them a series. Remember: the 2017-18 Rockets boasted the league’s best offense and steamrolled through the entire NBA up to the Western Conference Finals, but a Game 7 cold streak cost them a trip to the Finals- and probably a championship. Now, the 2018 Rockets and the 2020 Rockets are two very different teams, both in terms of roster construction and style of play. Gone are the pick-and-rolls with Harden, Chris Paul and Clint Capela, combined with an elite defense. Instead, these Rockets have countless Harden step-back threes, relentless Russell Westbrook drives to the basket, and a middle-of-the-pack defense. And while you can argue that the offensive changes are negligible, as they have both produced at a very high level, the defense separates the two teams; one is a mid-tier seed in the Western Conference, and the other was a 65-win juggernaut. Those Rockets could lean on their defense when the shots weren’t falling- these Rockets can’t. And if a cold spell from 3 could end the ‘18 Rockets, even with an elite defense, then it would absolutely spell doom for these Rockets.

While saying that they must hit their 3s feels obvious, it’s absolutely crucial for Houston’s offense to run properly. In contrast to previous Houston teams, which ranked around league average, this year’s Rockets rank 3rd in the league in pace, largely a product of Russell Westbrook’s blitzing speed and relentless attacks at the rim. This has led to Houston ranking 3rd in both transition scoring and frequency this season, a key component of their offense. They aren’t slouches in the half court either; they are far and away the most efficient isolation team in the NBA, largely a product of James Harden’s greatness. They also run isolation plays nearly twice as often as the second-highest team, the Portland Trail Blazers, who have Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. This incredible dependence on iso ball to score isn’t pretty, but it’s worked, as proven by their top-3 offense. Their isolation game, however, is very reliant on their shooters.

Part of the reason Houston traded away Clint Capela was that their most optimal lineups put two non-shooters on the floor. By pairing Capela and Westbrook, Houston clogged driving lanes and, more importantly, allowed teams to aggressively double-team James Harden and prevent him from getting into the offense. In replacing Capela with Robert Covington, the only non-shooter on the floor is Westbrook, giving defenses a major dilemma. If you double with Westbrook’s man, he’ll just cut to the rim wide open. If you double off of a shooter, Harden will find them. And if you don’t double Harden, you are at the whims of the most potent isolation threat the league has ever seen. Similarly, when Westbrook attacks the rim, teams either have to help off of a shooter, who Westbrook will find, or give up 2 points at the rim. A lot of the offense of their two superstars depends on the defense not wanting to help off of a shooter out of fear of giving up an open 3. This gives corner three point shooters exceptional value; it’s much easier to recover to a shooter on the wing if you double at the top of the key than to the corner. PJ Tucker, as always, lives in the corner: he takes 3.4 corner threes per game, making up 77.3% of his 3-point attempts this season, and he’s shooting them at a 39.4% clip. However, they don’t have many other players who shoot a high volume of their shots from the corner. Guys like Austin Rivers and Ben McLemore shoot well over 40% on corner 3s, but on very low volume. Jeff Green and Danuel House both shoot nearly half of their 3s from the corner, but both only shoot 35% from that spot, which is well below league average (around 39%, per Cleaning the Glass). Most of their 3-point looks come from above the break, either as a product of setting a flare screen for Harden, forcing a double team and popping out for an open look, or out of drive-and-kicks. The issue is that the only players shooting above league-average from above the break are Green (who has played 320 minutes as a Rocket, so the sample size is encouraging, but small), McLemore, and House. For a team that is so reliant on 3-point shooters to function, these numbers aren’t great. In the playoffs, the game is going to slow down, taking away a lot of transition opportunities, which puts a lot of pressure on the offense in the halfcourt. Teams will start to ignore below average shooters to clog driving lanes or to pressure Houston’s stars on the ball. If Houston’s shooters can’t make the defense pay, then they’re going to be in significant trouble. But if they can, then the Rockets’ offense has the potential to absolutely shred any opposing defense through the playoffs.

Role Players Need To Step Up

Even though sometimes it might feel this way, the Rockets’ role players aren’t only meant to catch and shoot 3-pointers off of looks from Harden and Westbrook. And though they rank 29th in assists per game, basketball is still a team sport. The rest of the players on the roster are going to be key in this team making a championship run. As the playoffs go on, teams are going to put a lot of strain on Houston’s two stars, taking the ball out of their hands as much as possible and making life very hard for them when they have it. Houston’s incredibly iso-heavy system means that their entire offense, and the entire opposing defense, revolves around Harden and Westbrook. If either has a bad game, it could spell doom for the Rockets. This means that it’s on the rest of the roster to play their best basketball.

The first name that comes to mind is Eric Gordon. Gordon has been a key player for Houston for 4 years now, and his role is arguably the most important outside of Houston’s backcourt. He is the only other real off-the-dribble creator on the roster, and his ability to drain deep 3’s puts legitimate pressure on the defense. In 2016-17, Gordon won the Sixth Man of the Year award for his ability to carry Houston’s offense in non-Harden stretches and complement him when they shared the floor. As Houston’s roster evolved, adding Chris Paul then Westbrook, he has played largely the same role, both off the bench and as a starter. Regardless of whether he starts games in the playoffs, though, he is going to finish them, which means he has to perform. The problem is that Gordon’s 2020 season was not very good. He missed a lot of time with injury, playing in only 34 games before the shutdown and missing the first 6 games in the bubble, and when he has played, he’s been marred with inconsistency and inefficiency. He shot a dismal 37% from the field and 31.9% from distance, not encouraging signs for a player who is billed as this team’s third option. Encouraging signs, however, still persist. Much like this team as a whole, Gordon still has incredible upside, but can swing from one side of the spectrum to the other at a moment’s notice. Gordon’s season as a whole could be represented by a two game stretch where he hung 50 points on Rudy Gobert and the Utah Jazz, hitting jumpers, bullying his way to the basket, and generating points at the free throw line, and following it up with a terrible 8-point showing vs. the 27th ranked defense in the Portland Trail Blazers. Gordon isn’t washed; he’s only 31 years old, and though he has a lengthy injury history, he’s proven that he can still perform at a high level for this team. Houston is going to need the best version of Gordon. If he can force the defense to pay attention to him at all times from behind the arc, life gets a lot easier for Harden and Westbrook. He’s always been able to get to the rim easily due to his sturdy frame, and though his athleticism from his younger days has waned due to age and injuries, he’s still a powerful and effective driver. If he can convert those looks and put pressure on the rim, he adds a dimension to Houston’s offense that no other player really can.

It is very likely that at least one of Harden, Westbrook, and Gordon is going to be on the floor at all times for Houston, and they will take on most of the on-ball creation duties. That doesn’t mean, however, that the rest of the players on the court can just stand around and wait to catch a pass for a 3-pointer. The bench is going to have to do a lot of things on the offensive end of the floor to not only pressure the defense, but to fully capitalize on the greatness of Harden and Westbrook. There are 3 key players coming off of Houston’s bench that need to step up on the offensive end of the floor if they want to find success: Austin Rivers, Danuel House Jr., and Jeff Green. Rivers proved he can generate his own offense both attacking the basket and from distance in the bubble, scoring a career-high 41 points in a game without Russell Westbrook vs. the Sacramento Kings. Obviously, you can’t expect that level of production nightly, but the game was a good showcase of what Rivers can provide for this team’s offense. As the team’s primary ball handler off the bench, Rivers’ ability to offer stable production and creation for both himself and his teammates will be vital in the minutes he plays without Houston’s big names. House, who started at small forward for most of the season in the absence of Gordon, profiles like a prototypical 3-and-D wing, much like the rest of Houston’s roster. In the games since the NBA’s restart, however, he has demonstrated an ability to create a little for himself off the dribble, as opposed to just catching and shooting or driving to the rim. If he can maintain that through the playoffs, he becomes a valuable option for Houston to attack mismatches or take some strain off of their primary ball handlers.

Finally, there’s Green. Part of the beauty of Houston’s hyper-small roster is that because every player on the floor is either a traditional guard or wing, they can all handle, pass and shoot at a level rarely seen with conventional big men. This is no more apparent with anyone than Green, who, after playing as a small forward or power forward for most of his career, runs the backup center spot for Houston. He has been a threat from deep as a Rocket, draining over 39% of his 3s, but the most interesting and exciting role he plays is as the screener in the pick-and-roll. Green and Harden have already developed great chemistry in the pick-and-roll. If teams decide to switch on the pick-and-roll, Harden just attacks the mismatch with an isolation. If they opt to blitz Harden off of the screen (double-team with both Harden and Green’s defenders), Harden dumps the ball down to Green by the free-throw line, where he has become quite adept at making decisions in real time.

Here is a great example. Anthony Davis blitzes this Harden/Green pick-and-roll, doubling Harden and leaving Green open at the free throw line. Recognizing this, Green waits for the Harden pass and takes off down an open lane. The help defender (in this case Markieff Morris) is caught between cutting off Green’s straight line drive and the corner shooter, Tucker. Recognizing this, Green takes off with a full head of steam and gets a layup. If the help defense closes off his driving lane to the rim, he will pass to an open shooter. If the help is either too occupied with the corner shooters or stuck in limbo between their man and Green, he will drive to the rim for a layup or dunk. This ability to attack the mismatches created by doubling Harden is a very powerful means of generating offense, and Green has played his role so far to a tee. The Rockets are going to need this production from him, House, and Rivers to remain afloat when one or both of Harden and Westbrook aren’t on the floor. We can expect high minutes and high production from both of Houston’s stars, but if the rest of the roster doesn’t excel in their respective roles, the Rockets aren’t going anywhere.

The Defense Must Step Up

There is an age-old saying that has persisted throughout NBA history. “Offense wins games. Defense wins championships.” And there’s a reason it’s persisted for so long: it’s true. Poor defensive teams rarely make it far in the playoffs, while mediocre offenses with great defenses have won championships (the 2004 Detroit Pistons come to mind). The Houston Rockets have the offensive power of a title contender, sure, but their defense is going to need to step up in a major way. The Rockets under Mike D’Antoni have always employed a very switch-heavy defensive scheme, and now that the entire roster is roughly the same height, this has been taken to another level. This versatility on the perimeter is very valuable, particularly when you have good, versatile defenders on the roster like Covington, Tucker, Rivers, and Green. A major component of their defense is forcing turnovers, ranking 7th in the league in opponent turnover percentage and much of this comes from generating steals. Five players on the roster (Harden, Westbrook, Covington, Tucker and House) average over 1 steal per game, and three (Harden, Westbrook and Covington) average at least 1.5. They generate steals in a number of ways.

Here, Covington sticks to Middleton as he rejects the screen from Matthews, forcing him to the middle of the floor. From here, Tucker is able to play Middleton’s right side and House helps from the corner to take away the rim. This collapse onto Middleton flusters him, and Covington can use his long arms to get an easy steal. They also play the passing lanes very well, as Harden does here:

In generating all of these steals, Houston is able to access their transition offense much more often, like right here where Harden gets an easy 3 on the fastbreak. Considering the pace at which this team plays and the amount of offense they generate in transition, getting steals like this is very important. Come playoff time, the game is going to slow down. Any opportunity to get out and run must be capitalized on.

But the biggest thing about Houston’s defense, and the real determinant of how far they can go, is that they aren’t big at all. On paper, this looks like a death sentence, and in any other era of basketball, it probably would be. But in a league that is gravitating away from the post-up, the Rockets have managed. In fact, teams score 0.84 points per post-up possession vs. the Rockets, the third-lowest mark in the league. This is because what many of Houston’s defenders lack in size, they make up for in strength. Harden, who leads the team defending 1.9 post-ups per game, allows a measly 0.69 points per post-up, ranking in the 87th percentile. And Covington and Tucker, who defend 1.5 and 1.1 post-ups per game, respectively, rank in the 84th and 56th percentile. Neither allow more than 1 point per possession. In fact, the only two players on the entire roster that do are Westbrook and Green, and both defend less than one post-up per game. They have been able to neutralize the post-up as an efficient means of attacking the size mismatch. Additionally, they have been able to protect the rim better than you would expect. Covington, in particular, has been very good at defending the rim.

In this clip, the Rockets employ their normal switch-heavy defense on a double screen, which results in Harden guarding Dwight Howard, with Howard having superior positioning. Watch Covington during the whole possession. He realizes the massive mismatch instantly, and knows that Howard is going to shoot the ball when he catches it, so he begins to help heavily off of JR Smith in the corner. Once Dwight catches the ball, Covington comes alive, sprinting to the basket and getting a perfectly timed block. Covington has used his combination of incredible length and defensive intellect to become a potent shot-blocker in Houston, and he is averaging an insane 2.2 blocks per game as a Rocket.

The issue of protecting the paint in general, though, persists. Since the All-Star break, Houston ranks 29th in defensive rebounding percentage, 29th in opponent second chance points, and 28th in opponent points in the paint per game. Obviously, the major weakness with this roster is rebounding. Especially against huge teams like the Bucks and Lakers, this is going to be an issue. But the good parts of the Rockets’ defense persist. Post All-Star break, they rank 2nd in steals per game, and they rank 7th in defensive rating. There isn’t much that they can do about the rebounding deficit. They are going to be outrebounded nearly every game. They just need to ensure that the rest of their defense is good enough to make up for it. This seems obvious, but defense isn’t exactly coded into the Rockets’ DNA. D’Antoni has never been a defensive-minded coach, and Harden and Westbrook are both notorious for occasionally packing it in on the defensive end, which can trickle down to the rest of the roster. For a team with such a glaring defensive weakness, poor effort is a death sentence. Opponents will capitalize on any and all laziness, whether it be in the halfcourt or transition, and this team has zero margin for error come playoff time. The Rockets need to lock in on defense. They have the tools to be good enough; it’s just a matter of whether or not they use them.

The Stars Need To Shine

Everything I’ve mentioned to this point so far revolves around the Rockets as a team. But the success of the team is really dependent on just two players - James Harden and Russell Westbrook. In fact, the things I’ve mentioned to this point all rely on Houston’s stars to play at their peaks. The attention they garner on defense opens up quality 3-pointers for the rest of the team. The offense revolves completely around them, so it is only when they play at their best that the role players can maximize their production. And if they don’t commit to defense, the mentality in the locker room will reflect that. How far Houston can go fully hinges on how far their stars take them.

Since the Rockets opened up the floor for Russell Westbrook, he has played some of the best basketball of his career. But more importantly, he has played the most efficient basketball of his career. Since the All-Star break, Westbrook has shot a blistering 50.4% from the floor, by far the best shooting stretch of his career. But as much as the newfound lanes to the basket benefitted him, Westbrook made the conscious decision to use them. No more did this manifest itself than from the 3-point line. Before the All-Star break (and the trade that swapped Capela for Covington), Westbrook shot four 3-pointers per game, shooting a horrendous 23.8%. Since the trade, however, Russ has shot only 2.7 3s per game, and is hitting them at a much more efficient rate (37.5%). The notable thing here is not the uptick in efficiency. More than anything, that’s a product of generating better shots within the offense. The important piece is that Westbrook decided to start capitalizing on a roster with more floor spacing than he’s ever been afforded. Instead of terrible pull-up 3s, he is attacking the basket with absolute ferocity, letting Harden do the work on the perimeter. The style of inefficient basketball that to this point in his career has defined him is gone, and that is a change that Russ made himself. As much as the roster caters to Westbrook, Westbrook caters back. The change is incredibly encouraging, but the sample size is small. Westbrook absolutely has to maintain this style of play for Houston to find success. If the game starts to slow down in the postseason and scoring becomes harder to come by, Westbrook can’t revert to his old self, dominating the ball and taking terrible shots to try and carry the team to a victory. If he starts playing hero ball and shooting his way out of games, the team, much like Westbrook, has no shot. That’s a lot of the reason why the Rockets performed horribly when Westbrook was on the court and Harden wasn’t before the Covington trade. The only thing stopping Westbrook - and by extension, Houston - from being great is Westbrook. The big question is: will he?

Westbrook might be Houston’s engine, but James Harden is its lifeblood. In his 8 years as a Rocket, he has been the fulcrum of everything that the Rockets do. Every trade, every signing, every decision that’s been made has been to function around Harden. He is the Rockets. So the Rockets need him to be great. Harden’s postseason record has always been put on blast. Casual fans often refer to him as a playoff choker, citing his 2017 playoff series against the San Antonio Spurs, where he completely fell apart as the series progressed. But aside from that, Harden’s numbers in the playoffs aren’t actually all that bad. The issue is that they aren’t exceptional either. The great players elevate their play in the postseason. And while for the most part Harden doesn’t play worse, he doesn’t play much better either. He went cold with the rest of the roster during Houston’s infamous Game 7 meltdown in 2018 versus the Warriors. And in 2019, he wasn’t able to elevate his play enough to beat the Warriors, even without Kevin Durant. A long-persisting theory as to why Harden doesn’t play great in the playoffs is that because he exerts so much energy in the regular season, he’s too gassed by the time the playoffs roll around. That will be put to the test this year, as he’s gotten four and a half months to rest for the postseason. Harden is going to need to play the best basketball he’s ever played these playoffs if the Rockets want a shot at the title. Especially now that Westbrook is missing at least the beginning of their first-round series against Oklahoma City, he needs to assert himself offensively as the most dangerous scorer in the league, which he is certainly capable of doing. The competition is going to be insanely hard. There’s a chance that the Rockets play against Chris Paul, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard and Giannis Antetokounmpo all in one playoff run. We know what those players are capable of in the postseason. If Harden can’t match them, the Rockets will fall. But if he does, he gives Houston a shot to beat every single one of them.

The Houston Rockets are the most unorthodox team in the most unorthodox season the league has ever seen. So it’s only fitting that they have the most unorthodox title chances of any contender. If everything goes right, they could leave Orlando with the Larry O’Brien trophy. But they could just as easily fall in the first round. The Rockets act like they can win the title, from ownership down to the 15th man. Their thinking is not misguided. But if Houston doesn’t win it this year, they might not have the luxury of simply “running it back” again. They’ve exhausted most of their draft picks in trades for either superstars or win-now veterans, so they won’t be able to add young talent to their roster through the draft for a long time. The free agency situation is similarly bleak, as they will only have the midlevel exception to spend this summer, and the contracts of Westbrook, Harden, and Gordon are so large and so long that it will take years for Houston to have significant cap room again. That is the cost of having two supermax contracts on your roster; you’d better hope they’re good enough to win. And the clock is not doing them any favors. Westbrook is 31 years old, and his game is based almost completely off of his otherworldly athleticism. For a player in his 30s with multiple knee surgeries, that is not a sustainable style of play. Who knows what Westbrook will look like next season? He’s already going to miss part of these playoffs. Eric Gordon is in a similar situation. Also 31 years old and with a long injury history, much of the athleticism of his youth has already been sapped. Though he’s been able to extend his career with his shooting, he can only produce at a high level for so much longer. And if this season was any indicator, his days as a key offensive player might be coming to an end. For a player owed $35 million over the next 2 seasons, that’s not good. Both Westbrook and Gordon’s contracts are onerous, and likely untradable. And they both make sense, just as long as you can justify them with a title. If they can’t, then Houston will be in NBA purgatory. No draft assets, no free agents, and no shot at the title. The pressure is on the Rockets this season to win it all, because they might not have another shot. How many other times in NBA history could you say that about a roster with two MVPs in their prime? Probably never. How unorthodox.

All stats courtesy of NBA.com or Basketball Reference, unless otherwise stated. All financial stats courtesy of Spotrac.