One Question I Have For the Entire Eastern Conference
It’s almost time for NBA basketball, and with it goes most of my free time. In the Eastern Conference, the Boston Celtics will look to become the NBA’s first back-to-back champions in seven years after a truly dominant season. But across the conference, there’s a lot to pay attention to. The New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers reshaped their rosters with the intention of challenging the throne, while the Milwaukee Bucks still employ Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard. And it’s not entirely implausible to envision all of the Indiana Pacers, Cleveland Cavaliers, Miami Heat and Orlando Magic winning a playoff series. Several teams are in a transitional phase, building around young players and trying to build towards the next great iteration of their franchises while giving us something to be excited about in the meantime. It might not be the gauntlet that is the West, but the Eastern Conference is in an interesting place right now.
Headed into the season, here’s one question I have for all 15 teams in the conference, listed in alphabetical order. The West will be here soon, but I wanted to split them up to make it a little easier to digest. There’s a lot I’m looking forward to watching across the league this season, so I’m happy I can try and consolidate some of that into these two articles. I hope you enjoy!
ATL: Who’s on the roster at the end of the season?
Last season: 36-46 (10th in East), lost in Play-In Tournament
Three years after their surprise Eastern Conference Finals run — and two years after trading three first round picks for Dejounte Murray — the Atlanta Hawks have reached an impasse. They have tried to compete in a weaker East, but consecutive first-round exits in 2022 and 2023 before missing the playoffs outright last season brought long-simmering fundamental questions about this team to the top.
Atlanta has already made substantial change. They sent Murray to the New Orleans Pelicans for a package that included first round picks and young defensive stud Dyson Daniels. They beat the odds in the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery, securing the first overall pick and the right to draft French wing Zaccharie Risacher. If they aren’t fully rebuilding, it’s clear they’re making a shift. Atlanta has shown an inclination to build around longtime star Trae Young and burgeoning forward Jalen Johnson, with Daniels and Risacher figuring to fit in as two-way cogs alongside them.
But they are still in flux. There are still multiple holdover role players from that conference finals run, most notably longtime starting center Clint Capela. Capela is still a serviceable big man, but at 30, he doesn’t match the team’s timeline — unlike Onyeka Okongwu, whom the team invested a top-10 pick in four years ago. Big O has spent his whole career to this point backing up Capela, but he’s developed into one of the league’s best backup bigs. At 23 years old but already on his second contract, Okongwu is the exact kind of cost-controlled young player the Hawks should be prioritizing. If the Hawks really want to see what the next version of this team might look like, it just makes too much sense for him to start. Capela’s expiring salary should attract interest across the league — I can’t imagine he’s on the roster past the trade deadline.
If the Hawks decide to lean into deal mode, there are other players who I wouldn’t have trouble picturing on the move. De’Andre Hunter is a fine player, but early career flashes of a two-way needle-mover never came to be as injuries kept him off the court consistently. He also plays the position Risacher projects to as a pro — next to Johnson, there are only so many frontcourt minutes to go around. But Hunter was picked fourth overall by the team in 2019, and he’s still just 26 years old; maybe this is a conversation for a little farther down the line as Risacher acclimates to NBA basketball. Should he be made available, his skillset and salary would likely hold appeal at least somewhere across the league.
Bogdan Bogdanovic is one of the NBA’s most blistering shooters when hot, and would surely bring value to other teams. But both him and Hunter still have a place on the Hawks as rotation players. I could see both remaining with the team through the season, but the fact remains that the Hawks are in the midst of an identity shift; even if they just trade Capela, the team likely won’t look the same next summer. I’m curious to see how hard they lean into making changes as they continue to shift younger. In the meantime, the Hawks seem primed for yet another run at the bottom half of the Play-In bracket. Without much at stake in terms of winning, I’m looking forward to having something to look forward to after the deadline.
BOS: What will the center rotation look like while Kristaps Porzingis is out?
Last season: 64-18 (1st in East), NBA Champions
I’ll be honest, there isn’t all that much for me to wonder about this team next season. The reigning champs are bringing back the entire rotation of a team that posted the fourth best regular season net rating in NBA history last season and lost only three playoff games en route to their title — and get this: they went 31-6 without Porzingis across the entirety of the season, including a ridiculous 10-2 in the playoffs. His likely absence through the calendar year while rehabbing from his bizarre ankle injury in the Finals is highly unlikely to spell doom for a proven juggernaut with or without him.
Still, Porzingis completes the full-strength Celtics. His ability to shoot directly over mismatches is as potent a switch-killer as you’ll find across the league, so his ability to space from deep range puts maximum strain on opposing bigs normally inclined to protect the rim. In an offense that features heavy doses of mismatch hunting and emphasizes spacing above almost all else, those ingredients are basically a cheat code.
Defensively, he has regained past form as a fearful rim protector. According to Cleaning the Glass, Boston’s opponents shot 60% at the rim when Porzingis was on the court last season — which was 6.1% better than when he sat, both elite marks. And though he’s only really comfortable in a drop, he’s certainly effective. He also makes Al Horford’s ability to still hold up on switches a devastating curveball; both players can stretch the floor, but they let Boston play multiple ways with their bevy of defenders across the positional spectrum.
No other center on the Celtics’ roster brings all the things Porzingis does on both ends. Horford can shoot and switch, but he isn’t a rim protector — and entering his age 38 season, it’s reasonable to question how much he has left in the tank. Xavier Tillman can replicate some of his switching prowess, and Luke Kornet and Neemias Queta offer rim protection and size, but none of them are floor spacers. One-third of Boston’s roster is devoted to centers, so they’ve clearly decided to invest in the ability to play multiple ways, but Porzingis is the most important piece of the puzzle.
All of those players will likely see time on the court to start the season, and I’m curious how Joe Mazzulla and his staff opt to go about navigating this stretch without their starting center. Do they start Kornet or Queta to maintain reps with a drop defender, or use Tillman or Horford and play a switch-heavier style? How much will be dependent on matchups? Will Tillman’s shooting flashes grow into something, giving the Celtics more of the skill they most covet? There are very few actual questions about Boston’s performance on the court this year, but if you want to track one thing for the start of the season, I’d be looking here.
BRK: Can Ben Simmons become a productive NBA player again?
Last season: 32-50 (11th in East), missed postseason
The Nets started this summer in a familiar place: after trading all of their draft picks to build a superteam and watching it blow up in their faces, Brooklyn was left with an uncompetitive roster and nothing to tank for. NBA purgatory. They even watched their own draft pick jump to third in the lottery, with which the Houston Rockets gladly chose Reed Sheppard (remember 2016, when the Celtics did this with reigning Finals MVP Jaylen Brown?). But when they traded Mikal Bridges to the New York Knicks for a haul of draft assets, and some draft assets to the Rockets for their next two first round picks back, the Nets basically used a Get Out of Purgatory Free card. Now, they can be as bad as they want to be with potentially massive rewards down the line.
For 2024-25, the Nets will be playing more Capture the Flagg than competitive basketball, and likely by a lot. It does not project to be pretty. But unlike other teams in this position, there are relatively few young players with upside to track in Brooklyn. Cam Thomas will be handed the keys, while Noah Clowney just stood out as a rookie; while both players will be something to tune in for, the Nets’ next Guy probably isn’t on the team yet. Nic Claxton, Cameron Johnson, Dorian Finney-Smith, Dennis Schroder and Bojan Bogdanovic are all likely to have at least some value on the market, and the Nets are in position to cash in on those assets now — the team will likely look quite different in March. All in all, there isn’t a whole ton to wonder about in Brooklyn.
Then you remember that Ben Simmons is still here. Simmons’ career arc has been as bizarre as any in league history — a number one pick and Rookie of the Year who made three All-Star teams, an All-NBA team, and two All-Defensive First Teams (including a DPOY runner-up) in his first four seasons before an inexplicable playoff meltdown in 2021 led to a trade request and eventual holdout from the Philadelphia 76ers. Philly was able to ship him to the Nets for James Harden — only Simmons required back surgery, an issue which cost him that season and has lingered to this day. Simmons has played 57 games in two and a half seasons with the Nets (only 15 of which came last season), and he’s never resembled the player he once was athletically or mentally. A return to All-Star form at this point feels implausible, to put it kindly.
That’s not to say Simmons can’t become a valuable NBA player again. At 6’10 with some of the very best vision in the league, he still possesses physical gifts that could enable his IQ to translate at a high level. He’s always played like a point guard in a power forward’s body, but maybe it’s time to play more like a power forward with point guard skills. His frame has always made him a good screener, while his defensive switchability has long been a draw. A piece in the frontcourt that can guard multiple positions and make decisions on the short roll is very valuable, even as a role player. His utter lack of a jumpshot would be mitigated in this role, too — if he’s by the rim more often, teams will have to guard him honestly.
All of this is wishful thinking. Simmons needs to play consistently before any of this becomes a real question again, and the version of him we’ve gotten as a Net hasn’t been all that suggestive that a high-level player is still in there. But if Simmons’ back is finally, truly, healthy and was the thing holding him back physically, then this season could turn into a real prove-it year. With zero team expectations, Simmons could try and show out enough to earn his next contract — it’s impossible to envision any team trading for his $40 million at the deadline outside of matching money, but Simmons is entering unrestricted free agency. If he wants to keep his NBA career alive, he has to show something. I want to know how much that’s going to be.
CHA: Can they recapture the magic of 2021-22?
Last season: 21-61 (13th in East), missed postseason
If you didn’t watch the Charlotte Hornets much last season, I can’t say I blame you. Snakebitten by injuries to several key young players before dealing several veterans at the trade deadline, Charlotte spent much of the last year acting like a team with nothing to play for. With new faces at the coaching, front office, and ownership levels, it’s not a stretch to imagine the Hornets are beginning a new long-term quest towards competence. What that outlook leaves out is just three seasons ago the Hornets were a League Pass darling, running and dunking their way to 43 wins and a Play-In berth behind the All-Star play of a 20-year-old LaMelo Ball. As we enter the Brandon Miller era of Hornets basketball, I’ve found myself wondering if this team has that kind of upside.
It all starts with Ball’s health. Since his All-Star second season, he’s missed 108 of a possible 164 games with persistent ankle injuries. Ball scored 23.9 points per game on 56.1% True Shooting in 2023-24, both career-high marks, but was limited to just 22 games. If his ankles keep him from staying healthy, the entire formula shifts for Charlotte. The Hornets added the fewest extra points in transition per 100 possessions of any team in the league last season at the second-lowest frequency, per Cleaning the Glass. When the Hornets were pushing for a playoff berth in 2022, those numbers ranked first and third — an almost complete reversal. Ball’s style of play galvanizes his teammates to run in transition, knowing they’ll get easy buckets. For a young team still finding itself in the halfcourt, easy points are a boon if the short-term goal is competitiveness.
If Ball is there to stir the drink, it’s not hard to envision the pieces coming together, even with turnover from two years ago to now. Miller will build off of a stellar rookie season that made stardom feel more like a “when” than an “if”; as he builds strength and explores more on-ball creation, his baseline as a shooter, scorer and competitor will be high. New faces Grant Williams and Josh Green offer positional versatility — Green is 6’5 but can defend larger than that, while the 6’6 Williams has made a career off of defensive switchability. It’s not hard to envision multiple small-ball looks new head coach Charles Lee can throw out around Ball, Miller and incumbent starter Miles Bridges, who all stand at 6’7. Green and Bridges are an issue in transition, the perfect kind of partner filling the lanes to capitalize on Ball’s vision. So does Cody Martin, who also brings it defensively when on the court. Charlotte’s wings make a lot of sense next to their tentpole stars in a league increasingly leaning into skilled size.
Williams’ ability to guard centers also serves as injury insurance for Mark Williams, whose health also hangs over this Hornets season — the player we saw in just 19 games last year before back surgery had the upside of a real needle-mover. Between Grant and Nick Richards, Charlotte has multiple avenues they can take in whatever non-Mark minutes they end up playing. Between Vasilije Micic, Tre Mann and Seth Curry, there’s a non-insignificant dose of shooting and ball-handling in the backcourt room. This team has depth across the roster, two young stars, and a recent blueprint for success. The final two East Play-In spots appear to be up for grabs. If health is on their side, the Hornets seem poised to fight for one of them. Perhaps more importantly, though, the best version of this Charlotte team is immediately one of the most fun in the NBA. Considering how things went last season, that’s a win for everybody.
CHI: What does this team want to be?
Last season: 39-43 (9th in East), lost in Play-In Tournament
The Chicago Bulls make me sad. The fumes of the 2021-22 team that ravaged the league for all of half a season are dying out as two-plus years of astonishing mediocrity have finally prompted change from up top. Normally when a team is in this position, they try their best to offload their best assets at peak value to jumpstart the transition into the next version of their team — like the Orlando Magic did when they sent Nikola Vucevic to Chicago in 2021 for Wendell Carter Jr. and the pick that became Franz Wagner. (Is this mean to bring up? Maybe, but bear with me here.)
The Bulls could have done this with multiple players at any point over the last two seasons. It’s been reported that they could have turned stalwart guard Alex Caruso into multiple first round picks dating back to as recently as this past trade deadline, while DeMar DeRozan sustained a high level of play offensively. Instead, Chicago waited until this summer to make a decision on both — with DeRozan entering unrestricted free agency and Caruso only holding one year left on his contract, their leverage was as low as it had ever been. The result? Zero first round picks for either player. Caruso turned into Josh Giddey, a former top-10 pick with questions of his own, while the Bulls were able to salvage two second round picks and Chris Duarte’s salary in a sign-and-trade when DeRozan chose the Sacramento Kings.
Getting literally nothing in first round draft equity for two of the league’s better players is confounding (and was preventable), but Chicago repeatedly cited a desire to remain competitive when asked why they hadn’t pulled the trigger sooner. If that’s how they still feel, then the acquisition of Giddey makes at least some sense — in lieu of draft assets, bringing on a 21-year-old just two seasons removed from a 16/8/6 season for a team that finished above .500 to compete now and build for later isn’t unjustifiable to me. This should raise another question from the reader, then: if Giddey is so young and good, why did the young and good Oklahoma City Thunder offload him for Caruso? Without the ball in his hands, Giddey is as close to a zero offensively as you’ll find around the league. The book on him was out all season — opponents would simply put their rim protectors on him and ignore him, conceding any 3 while they muck things up for the rest of the team. That came to a head in the playoffs, when that scheme proved Giddey unplayable. Those issues should be less apparent on a team with less on-ball talent (and much less pressure to win games), but building the boat around such a flawed player isn’t guaranteed to lead to success down the line.
Around Giddey, the Bulls have some pieces that make sense, and some that frankly do not. Coming off of a true breakout season, Coby White makes a lot of sense as a secondary ball-handler who can play next to Giddey and amplify him with his spacing. Ayo Dosunmu remains a solid two-way complementary piece, capable of hitting open threes and taking on tough perimeter assignments defensively. Jevon Carter was supposed to bring that too, but coming off a disastrous season, his value is at an all-time low. Speaking of all-time low value, the Bulls also still employ Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic, who project to start but have absolutely no place in Chicago’s long-term plans — another consequence of delaying long-needed change. LaVine’s contract has proven untreatable to this point, and it’s hard to imagine a taker for Vucevic and his remaining $40 million over the next two seasons. Until the Bulls can move on, they’ll have to play with what they’ve got.
A starting lineup with Giddey, White, LaVine and Vucevic has the promise of some offensive fireworks, but after trading Caruso, Chicago can likely kiss its days of defensive competence goodbye. The Bulls aren’t good enough to make the Eastern Conference playoffs, and with other teams around them looking to improve, their reign over the Play-In Tournament is in jeopardy. If the floor falls out, Chicago could position itself near the top of the draft lottery odds, potentially bringing a franchise player in the door and some much-needed organizational direction. If they keep being semi-competitive, there’s a chance they won’t have a first round pick at all — if their pick lands outside of the top 10, they lose it to the Spurs. There’s real incentive to take a step back this season, but winning the lottery in a strong draft is vastly different from middling your way to the 8th pick. The path Chicago takes this season will influence a lot going forward. I’d like to see where they end up.
CLE: Are we about to see the last of the Evan Mobley/Jarrett Allen frontcourt?
Last season: 48-34 (4th in East), 2nd round exit
It’s a little bit sad to me that these are the kinds of conversations we’re having about the Cleveland Cavaliers at this point. They just extended Donovan Mitchell and still surround him with two recent All-Stars in Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen, to say nothing of 23-year-old former Defensive Player of the Year finalist Evan Mobley. They just won a playoff series for the first time since LeBron James was in town and will return just about the same team, only with one more year of experience under their belt. This should be a team on the rise with a lot to look forward to, but fundamental questions about the roster make this season a potential inflection point that will shape Cleveland’s future.
Ever since this roster was assembled, there have been skeptics about the the viability of Cleveland’s backcourt and frontcourt, but we’re going to focus on the bigs. Mobley entered the league as a non-shooting big man with insane defensive potential, but a slight frame. Pairing him with Allen theoretically made sense at least initially to let Mobley’s body develop, but modern basketball is shifting away from playing two non-shooters; many have projected Mobley’s long-term position to be center for his entire career. In 2021-22 — Mobley’s rookie season — lineups with him and Allen outscored opponents by 2.9 points per 100 possessions, according to Cleaning the Glass, buoyed by a stellar defensive rating. With Mitchell in the fold in 2022-23, that net rating improved to +8.6, posting elite numbers on both ends of the floor. At that point, belief in the two-big structure was probably at an all-time high.
Something changed last season, and this team appeared to enter something of an identity crisis. Both Garland and Mobley missed large swaths of the regular season with injury, so the Cavs were forced to play a different style around Mitchell and Allen. They spaced the floor out, starting Dean Wade at power forward and playing Allen as the solo big. Those lineups were incredible during the regular season — with Wade and Allen on the floor and no Mobley, Cleveland posted a +12.3 net rating, better than the Mobley/Allen frontcourt ever was in a season. And when Mobley was available, the Cavs sputtered to a +0.3 net rating in his minutes with Allen, the worst it had ever performed.
If Cleveland is serious about ascending in the East, now might be the time to pull the trigger on a move to break up their frontcourt. And if they do, all signs point to Allen being on the move. Both he and Mobley signed contract extensions this summer, but the context around their deals is vastly different. Mobley signed a five year rookie max, locking him up as the future of the franchise for years to come. While playing power forward hasn’t stopped him from becoming an all-world defender, his offensive development is multiple steps behind. It’s fair to wonder if playing center full-time is the best thing for his growth as a player. The 26-year old Allen secured three more years on his contract, but he’s eligible to be moved at the trade deadline. The timing of this move seems to be as an attempt to drive up Allen’s value, as his next team knows they’ll have him on a solid contract for the foreseeable future.
If he’s put on the market, Allen should have no shortage of suiters as one of the league’s best defensive big men. Cleveland would (and should) likely prioritize shooting in their return package to give Mitchell, Garland and Mobley the thing they gave up Allen for — space. These new-look Cavs may not be quite as threatening defensively, but if their offense can hit a new level, that may be enough to enter some different conversations in the East. Or, Cleveland could decide that last year was an injury-riddled fluke and keep this team together. Maybe they’ll be as good as they were two years ago, or even better. The performance of that duo is the bellwether for this core moving forward, and it feels like now is the make-or-break moment — I’ll be keeping a close eye on it.
DET: Who steps up as the second building block next to Cade Cunningham?
Last season: 14-68 (15th in East), missed postseason
The best thing about this season for the Detroit Pistons is that it can’t possibly go worse than the last one. After losing a league-worst 68 games, including a 28-game losing streak — the longest within a single season in NBA history — the lowest Detroit could fall in the draft lottery was to the fifth pick. For the second year in a row, that’s exactly what happened. Horrible performances on the court paired with horrible luck have kept this franchise at the bottom for years now. Now, with a new front office and head coach, and a more experienced roster that can actually shoot the basketball a little bit, the Pistons are trying to finally crawl out of the league’s cellar.
If there’s one beacon of hope on the roster right now, it’s Cade Cunningham. After losing just about all of his second season in 2022-23 with leg surgery, the first pick in the 2021 draft put together as good of an individual season as one could have hoped given the circumstances: 22.7 points and 7.5 assists per game on career-high shooting numbers from two- and three-point range. Surrounding him with more shooters should hopefully help improve his rim finishing and turnover issues, which remained poor last year on a team with no shooting and nothing to play for. Regardless, Cunningham did enough to show why he’s a player worthy of building around — let his maximum contract extension this summer stand as proof. The question, then, becomes: who else?
The 2022 draft brought Detroit Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren, two highly touted prospects on opposite ends of the positional spectrum. The hope was for Ivey to complement Cunningham in the backcourt and Duren to dominate down low, but through two years, there’s a lot still in the air with both. Ivey spent much of his second season on the fringes of the rotation, having seemingly not earned the trust of coach Monty Williams. There was clearly something going on behind the scenes, but this isn’t a place for speculation. Williams is gone, and the entire organization seems intent on putting last season behind them. Ivey’s speed and athleticism are skills that can’t be taught. If he can round out his game on both ends, he could become a handful to deal with. Duren entered the league as a teenager — and a double-double machine. His strength and frame were NBA-ready from Day 1, and he’s flashed fascinating potential with the ball in his hands as a driver. But Duren isn’t quite there yet guarding the pick-and-roll or protecting the rim, and the level he reaches as a defender is ultimately what will determine his ceiling. Both players project to be given ample opportunity, and both players will be eligible for a contract extension after the season; now would be a great time for the Pistons to really see what they have.
In 2023, the Pistons lost the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes but won the right to select Ausar Thompson, who almost instantly showed the world why he was the fifth overall selection in a strong draft. His freakish athleticism and IQ stood out immediately, and he started the season with an incredible stretch of wing defense and rebounding. But his utter lack of a jumpshot on a team with no shooting wound up hindering him, and the team, more than he could help. Thompson’s season ended prematurely with blood clots, and we can only hope it’s a temporary issue; assuming health, his second season is starting from a pretty high bar based off of what we saw. But the floor has a chance of falling out if his jumper never comes around, and playing on a more functional team will reveal a lot. The Pistons’ fifth pick in 2024, Ron Holland, has a few of the same questions. His motor and athleticism made him stand out as a prospect, but he will enter the league as an unproven shooter. My prompt applies a little less to him because he’s had less of a chance than any of these other players to prove himself. But he and Thompson have many of the same questions to answer, and the outcomes of their careers depend on how they answer them.
The only good thing about living at the bottom of the NBA hierarchy is that you get multiple chances at drafting a franchise building block. In five years trying to lose games, Detroit has selected nine players in the first round — including first once and fifth three times. To this point, only one has proven himself to be worthy of building block distinction, a startlingly low hit rate this far into a rebuild. It’s time for this front office to examine a crop of players that they did not draft and determine who fits their vision for the next great Pistons team. This is a year for development, but it’s also a year of evaluation. The best-case scenario has a roster with multiple future All-Stars and terrifying two-way potential; the worst possible outcome puts them right around square one. Wherever they end up within that continuum will be very informative for the team — and for me — about the next steps this team needs to make. But mostly, I’m excited to hopefully watch a Pistons team with something to play for, even if it’s just their personal pride. It’s been a while.
IND: How does Bennedict Mathurin fit on this team?
Last season: 47-35 (6th in East), lost in Eastern Conference Finals
When the Indiana Pacers traded for Pascal Siakam midway through last season, they announced their intentions on entering a different stratosphere in the Eastern Conference. After an immediate run to the Conference Finals, the vision isn’t all that hard to see. Led by Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton, the Pacers play one of the league’s most fun styles and feature some of its most impressive depth. And while it’s fair to wonder if their defense will hold them back from true title contention next season, their offense is potent enough to make any opponent break a sweat. Indy should sit near the top of just about any League Pass ranking for good reason, and it’s more than reasonable to project a second consecutive trip to the playoffs next spring.
Now is the time for the organization to figure out which players on the roster are going to be on the next great Pacers team. Andrew Nembhard broke out as a high-level secondary ball-handler and playmaker in the postseason, while Aaron Nesmith’s rugged on-ball defense and knockdown shooting made for a perfect fit in the starting lineup. Conversations about Myles Turner’s trade candidacy are sure to heat up again as he enters the last year of an unextendable contract, but it’s not impossible to envision him returning next summer either. TJ McConnell remains one of the league’s premiere backup point guards, while Obi Toppin just put together the best season of his career; both players enter this season on new contracts. It’s not a given that all of the aforementioned players will still be on the team in a couple of years — in fact, I’d say it’s very likely that at least one won’t be — but there’s a discernible role for each of them on this team.
Through two years, the same can’t yet be said for Bennedict Mathurin. The sixth pick in the 2022 NBA draft, Mathurin’s frame and shooting ability generated hype for his potential as a high level two-way wing — the most coveted player archetype in the league. He’s been an elite free throw generator since the moment he walked into the league, and he shot just under 38% from three-point range last season on decent volume, two skills that would imply a pretty natural fit on a team that could use some more of both. But what the Pacers do really well is pressure the rim, and while Mathurin is certainly capable of getting there, his finishing has left something to be desired (53% last season, good for the *12th percentile* among wings, per CTG). And while there were hopes that his athleticism would help him become a strong NBA defender, his potential on the other end has consistently outpaced his production.
Because of those struggles and the fact that he isn’t a natural playmaker, it was hard for Mathurin to make an impact on the court last season. The Pacers were 11 points per 100 possessions worse with Mathurin on the court than off, far and away the worst mark on the team among rotation players. And while there’s some pre-Siakam trade noise in that data, that can’t explain it all away — the lineup of Haliburton, Nembhard, Mathurin, Siakam and Turner lost its minutes by 2.7 points per 100 possessions, but with Nesmith in Mathurin’s place, Indiana was 7.5 points per 100 better than their opponent. He missed the entire postseason with a shoulder injury, so we never got to see how his game translates at a higher level, but there are enough signs to make me at least a little bit concerned. Mathurin is still just 22 and absolutely has the potential to grow as a player, but after this year he becomes eligible for a contract extension. Ideally for the Pacers, now is the time to figure out if and how he fits into their core. I’m intrigued to see how that goes over the course of the season.
MIA: What’s the outlook in April?
Last season: 46-36 (8th in East), 1st round exit
If there’s one thing that truly defines the Miami Heat of the Jimmy Butler era, it’s self-belief. Whenever they enter a high-stakes situation, their confidence in their ability to overcome whatever obstacle they face is so palpable it can bleed through a television screen. Behind the genie of Erik Spoelstra, several legendary playoff performances from Butler, the unbelievable versatility of Bam Adebayo, and an organizational commitment to work all day, all the time, the Heat are one of two teams so far this decade with multiple NBA Finals appearances — doing so as a 5th and an 8th seed. The 2023 playoffs taught me a lesson: the Heat can’t be counted out until the wheels fall off.
That being said, the wheels have a frustrating tendency to fall off. Their 2020 Finals run ended without Adebayo and Goran Dragic — the team’s second and third most important players — due to injury. By the end of their historic 2023 run, their standing as an 8-seed was visible as they couldn’t find any answers for the Denver Nuggets; after losing Caleb Martin this summer, three starters from that run (plus Kyle Lowry) are now gone. Butler and Adebayo are two of the league’s premiere players, but their talent deficit compared to the league’s other elite teams is glaring.
But while their lack of a big splash has drawn the ire of Heat fans for a few years now and likely lowered their ceiling, it isn’t like they’ve done nothing. Drafting Jaime Jaquez Jr. was a coup, Nikola Jovic became a starter in Year Two, and rookie center Kel’el Ware holds promise as a versatile big that could complement Adebayo in their minutes together and hold down the fort as a solo big down the line. The team also traded a protected first round pick for Terry Rozier at the trade deadline, a solid deal for a starting caliber player. Rozier’s shot creation promised to be important for a Heat team light on it, but we hardly got to see it last season. Butler, Rozier, Jaquez and Adebayo only shared the court for 96 possessions last season, per Cleaning the Glass. Rozier and Butler both missed Miami’s playoff loss to Boston entirely. Even pending other potential trades, that’s something unique enough to look forward to.
Miami doesn’t project as a regular season Eastern powerhouse for 2025. Of the eight teams that both want to and feasibly can compete for a playoff spot (the Celtics, Knicks, 76ers, Bucks, Cavaliers, Magic, Pacers and Heat), one could reasonably rank Miami eighth. Butler is coming off his worst regular season as a member of the Heat, and it’s fair to wonder if we’ve seen the best version of him. Jaquez and Jovic will keep growing, while Duncan Robinson returns after revamping his entire game last season, but the loss of Martin brings defensive questions that seem hard to answer from the outset. Miami’s been a Play-In Tournament team for two years in a row now; it’s hard to see a threepeat leading to another deep playoff run.
But there’s just something about this team in the playoffs that can make them so hard to predict. During their 2023 Finals run, Spoelstra made repeated reference to the importance of that regular season in his view — one in which the team only won 44 games, but played 54 “clutch” games, where the score was within five points with five minutes to go or fewer in the fourth. Miami went 32-22 in those games, and that experience seemingly helped them a great deal in the postseason. If they can figure just enough out to stay afloat and the injury bill is clean enough, the Miami Heat have earned the right to be feared. This is probably the last year before the magic dust wears off, though — if this spring closer resembles 2024 than 2023, it might be time for some uncomfortable conversations in South Beach. At this point, that’s the only outcome tree I’m concerned about with the Heat.
MIL: How much do Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez have left in the tank?
Last season: 49-33 (3rd in East), 1st round exit
The Milwaukee Bucks’ trade for Damian Lillard last summer was about as “championship or bust” a move a team could make. Not only was Lillard coming off of the most prolific individual season of his career, but the primary player the Bucks sent out, Jrue Holiday, was an integral piece of the team’s 2021 championship team. Between that and the decision to hire rookie head coach Adrian Griffin, the Bucks clearly intended to retool their roster around Giannis Antetokounmpo and keep their championship window alive. But between injury woes, a likely rougher-than-anticipated transition for Lillard in Milwaukee, and the burden of expectations costing Griffin his job, last year probably didn’t go anywhere near as planned. (It certainly couldn’t have helped to watch Holiday immediately contribute to the rival Celtics’ championship run, either.)
It seems as though the Bucks are banking on the rerun going much smoother than the original. Doc Rivers, with whom the Bucks replaced Griffin midseason, now has a full summer in Milwaukee to acclimate — as does Lillard, who arrived just before training camp last year. And while the Lillard/Antetokounmpo pick-and-roll never reached its terrifying potential in Year One, there’s reasonable optimism we could see a better version of it next season. But a relative lack of roster activity this summer raises real worries about the feasibility of this core moving forward.
Lineups with Lillard, Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez — Milwaukee’s four most important players — had a staggering +16.3 net rating last season, per Cleaning the Glass. When you consider that the Bucks finished the entire season with a net rating of just +2.7, though, that number might be more reason for concern than excitement. Middleton is one of the team’s most important shot creators and playmakers on the wing, while Lopez’s rim protection and floor spacing are still highly valuable. But they are 33 and 36, respectively; Middleton has missed 72 regular season games over the last two seasons with lower leg injuries and just had double ankle surgery. It’s more than fair to wonder if their days as impact starters will soon come to an end. While Antetokounmpo and Lillard were the driving forces behind Milwaukee’s best minutes last season, both of the Bucks’ other former All-Stars may determine their ceiling.
No other wing on the roster brings what Middleton can as a shooter, shot creator and passer — to hope for that blend of skills out of any one of Pat Connaughton, Taurean Prince, AJ Green, MarJon Beauchamp or Andre Jackson Jr. feels foolish. Gary Trent Jr. brings some juice as a career 38% three-point shooter, but he’s two inches shorter than Middleton with nowhere near the pedigree as an isolation scorer. A healthy Middleton that can still do all of those things changes the Bucks, as his performance during their 2021 title run showed. But that will have been four seasons — and four leg surgeries — ago now, with a whole lot of missed games in between, If Middleton can’t stay on the court, or we’ve seen the last of that player due to his injuries, Milwaukee becomes dangerously short on creation and shotmaking.
Lopez has long been the largest on-court driver of defensive success on the Bucks, whose drop-heavy schemes maximize his rim protection while optimizing Antetokounmpo’s defensive role as a backline roamer. That remained true last season; per CTG, the team performed 8.1 points per 100 possessions better on defense with Lopez on the court, the best mark on the team. Without Lopez, the Bucks’ defense has been pretty ugly for a couple of years now — replacing Holiday with Lillard on the perimeter gives them even less margin for error. Delon Wright, who figures to come off the bench, is likely the best perimeter defender on the team. And as productive as he is, Bobby Portis doesn’t approach Lopez as a defender. The fact Lopez has been able to extend his career by shifting his game on both ends of the floor is remarkable; the fact he’s still this good almost defies description. The Bucks might not be able to afford any slippage, but as they say, Father Time is undefeated. Milwaukee wants to win a championship now. With the roster that they have, it may be now or never.
NYK: What does the healthy rotation look like?
Last season : 50-32 (2nd in East), 2nd round exit
The Knicks have been on arguably the NBA’s biggest rise of the decade — after twenty years of near constant ineptitude, the team has won twice as many playoff series in the last two seasons as they had in the rest of the 21st century. The emergence of Jalen Brunson as someone worth building around changed the entire trajectory for this team, and they’ve changed their own trajectory multiple times since. First, there were the moves for Josh Hart and Donte DiVincenzo in 2023, reuniting Brunson with two of his old college teammates. Then, they sent out longtime starter RJ Barrett, Sixth Man of the Year runner-up Immanuel Quickley and a staggering number of first round picks to acquire arguably the league’s best defensive wing tandem in OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges. The Villanova Knicks were complete — and with all of New York’s draft equity across the Brooklyn Bridge, they seemed to be the locked-in core of a 2025 title hopeful.
Then they traded for Karl-Anthony Towns.
For the third time in as many years, this team has reinvented itself. Gone are the Nova Knicks — DiVincenzo was a part of the package headed to Minnesota — as well as Julius Randle, the teams’ first star of this era and a multi-time All-NBA selection who was held out of last year’s playoffs with a shoulder dislocation. Randle’s bully-ball, inside-out pressure and playmaking will be replaced with maybe the best stretch big the league has ever seen. The deal also shores up the Knicks’ center rotation while Mitchell Robinson recovers from ankle surgery. In the meantime, KAT will return to his original NBA position, wreaking havoc on opposing defenses as a spacer and driver. The short-term projected starting lineup of Brunson, Bridges, Hart, Anunoby and Towns will give Brunson more space than he’s ever had to work with as a Knick, while flanking Towns with enough good defenders to feasibly hold up on defense (see his last full season at center in 2022, when the Wolves finished 13th in defensive rating and Towns made Third Team All-NBA).
When Robinson returns from injury, though, things project to change. Either Robinson or one of the aforementioned starters will be coming off the bench. Robinson’s offensive rebounding has been a crucial component to the Knicks’ offensive success over the years; while the team projects to be more efficient than in the past, his ability to save so many possessions has become a part of the Knicks’ identity. If Tom Thibodeau decides to go that route, then sliding Towns to power forward and moving Hart to the bench makes a good deal of sense. KAT proved capable of playing next to a non-shooting rim protector with Rudy Gobert in Minnesota, and double-big lineups should have no problems rebounding the ball. In this construction, Hart would adopt a sixth man role, manning bench units with Deuce McBride and helping to keep the non-Brunson minutes afloat with his heady play and constant desire to push in transition.
But Hart wasn’t just one of the Knicks’ most important players after Randle’s injury — he was the NBA’s most played player over the back end of the season. After coming off the bench for all but six of New York’s 46 games before Randle went down, Hart started every game for the rest of the regular season and averaged a whopping 40 minutes per. That increased to 42.1 in the playoffs, including four games where he never sat (one went to overtime!). Some of that can be attributed to the Knicks’ roster literally falling apart over the course of the playoffs, but Thibs clearly has an affinity for the forward. Going double big also takes away some of Anunoby’s biggest strengths as a defender; he’s one of the very few players in the league that can legitimately get stops across the entire positional spectrum, but his size and frame make him especially potent against bigs. And though teams will have to respect Towns’ shooting from deep, a good chunk of that value goes away when he’s being guarded by a forward instead of a center, which lets defenses hone in on Brunson in the paint. A small lineup with Brunson, Hart, Bridges, Anunoby and Towns, then, makes sense too, with Robinson anchoring bench units alongside Deuce McBride. There’s a chance this lineup becomes the default by necessity; at this point in his career, Robinson’s health should not be treated as a given.
As you can see, there are pros and cons to both constructions. Rebounding shouldn’t be an issue with any of them; at least two of Towns, Hart and Robinson on the floor means the Knicks will be getting multi-positional positive value on the glass. It’s likely that we see both lineups over the course of the season — perhaps even during the course of a game — depending on what the matchup dictates. The Knicks have a lot of optionality now, and that’s likely part of why they made this trade. With officially no more assets left in the tank, New York is gunning for a championship right now. They should be one of the most fun teams to watch in the league, with answers (or at least options) for just about every other team in the East. I’m incredibly curious to see how Thibs and company decide to play.
ORL: Does Jalen Suggs have an on-ball leap in him?
Last season: 47-35 (5th in East), 1st round exit
The Magic were one of the great stories of 2023-24, making the Eastern Conference playoffs behind an elite defense despite fielding the fifth-youngest roster in the league. In their second and third seasons, respectively, Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner continued to show tantalizing potential as forwards with perimeter skill and two-way versatility, the most coveted player type in the NBA. Third-year guard Jalen Suggs broke out as one of the league’s best defenders, earning an All-Defense nod while taking — and making — more threes than ever.
Orlando’s three top-8 picks from 2021-22 likely secured themselves as the foundation of the team for the foreseeable future. Thus, it’s paramount that they optimize their roster around them. The easiest thing everyone points to is a lack of shooting, and Orlando took steps to fix that this summer. But last season, the Magic’s offense was primarily centered around the two young forwards initiating possessions and creating shots for themselves and the rest of the roster. While the process of getting young creators as many on-ball reps as possible isn’t completely objectionable in a vacuum and may pay dividends down the road, it impacted the efficiency of both young stars right now.
Banchero was one of 13 players leaguewide with a usage rate of over 30% in over 1,000 minutes last season, according to Cleaning the Glass — his points per shot attempt ranked dead last. Wagner shot 28% from three-point range, the worst mark in the league for any player with over 1,000 minutes and over 4 three-point attempts per game. Some of that inefficiency comes with young stars developing at the NBA level, but the burden placed on both absolutely impacted how effective they were. Lessening that responsibility would allow them both to grow into more optimized versions of themselves. Finishing plays more often wouldn’t just give Banchero and Wagner an easier shot diet — it would make their offense harder to predict and let the team do different things throughout the course of a game, key for late playoff rounds.
Enter Suggs. The Magic’s stalwart point guard has made his name in the league thus far as a defensive menace, one of the league’s premiere disruptors on the perimeter. The game-changing step he took last season was becoming a legitimate threat from three-point range, both essential for Suggs’ offensive development and a boon for the shooting-starved Magic. The issue is that this growth came with Suggs playing off the ball more than he ever has as a pro. His usage rate has gone down in each of his first three seasons as the team leaned more into Wagner and Banchero, and he struggled mightily to put the ball in the basket when he had more touches. But if this shooting jump is real, then it may not be a bad idea to see what Suggs looks like manning some offense again.
It’s hard to imagine the sort of playmaking I’m talking about coming from anywhere else on the roster. The team’s two highest players in assist percentage behind Banchero and Wagner — Joe Ingles and Markelle Fultz — are gone. Cole Anthony is a scorer first. Anthony Black has more questions to answer before he enters this conversation. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will be an additive presence on both ends, but it won’t be because of his playmaking. Banchero himself is on the record stating he’d like someone else on the roster that can handle point guard duties. If the Magic want to keep ascending in the East, having a ball-handler in the backcourt they trust would make that a whole lot easier — and I want to know if that’s Jalen Suggs’ NBA future. This version of him now is a high-level starter in the NBA. Taking that next step could vault him, and the Magic, into some different conversations moving forward.
PHI: Is this finally the year of a healthy Joel Embiid playoff run?
Last season: 47-35 (7th in East), 1st round exit
The Philadelphia 76ers have been defined by dysfunction for their entire modern run of contention. Coaches, general managers and co-stars have come and left like a revolving door around Joel Embiid, whose career has become just as much about his postseason failings as his ascension to MVP-caliber gigastar. His laundry list of injuries in the playoffs have contributed to this as much as anything else — in six playoff runs, he’s sprained knees, torn a thumb, suffered from Bell’s palsy(?!), torn his meniscus (twice) and broken his face (twice again). With a player of his caliber, the 76ers have rightfully entered each of those seasons with high aspirations, but time has proven Embiid’s health to be the ultimate conversation starter — and ender — when it comes to Philadelphia’s playoff dreams. Believing in this team requires a whole lot of grace and hope, more than most are willing to grant them at this point. But after their moves this offseason, it’s clear that it’s title or bust in Philly, and I find myself a little more intrigued than I have for a couple of years. So if you’ll indulge me, it’s time to sit back and drink a little Kool-Aid.
After adding Paul George in free agency this summer, Philadelphia now has three players on its roster that made the 2024 All-Star game. George and Tyrese Maxey both have real synergy with Embiid on offense, both able to handle the ball and play off it as movement shooters. Having this much top-end talent that works together is important to any team, but it’s probably even more important for the 76ers. Despite floundering to a 16-27 record without Embiid last season, the 76ers actually won their minutes that Maxey played and Embiid didn’t over the course of the season, according to Cleaning the Glass. Since Embiid’s health can never be guaranteed, having two All-Stars for when he sits instead of one could do wonders to stop the bottom from falling out without him. And when they all share the court, taking a chunk of the load off of Embiid offensively should help keep him from overextending himself.
The supporting cast is different this year, too, and should give Philadelphia more of the thing every team in the NBA is seeking: versatility. Depending on health and opponent, they have a number of different looks they can go to. Nick Nurse should have a field day with Caleb Martin, Kelly Oubre and George on the court causing chaos on defense, while Andre Drummond can hold down the fort playing Embiid’s preferred drop coverage style. There are shooters like Eric Gordon and Reggie Jackson, while Kyle Lowry returns with his ball-handling and IQ to bolster bench units. If Philadelphia wants to switch everything, they can load up on big wings and forwards (hello, Guerschon Yabusele); if they want to play more traditionally around Embiid with a spread floor, they have lineups they can go to for that as well. Knowing Daryl Morey’s tendencies, a midseason move to shore up whatever weaknesses plague the team (perhaps the lack of a true power forward?) can never be ruled out either.
I’m going to repeat this, because it’s the most important piece of all: if Embiid isn’t healthy, none of this matters. If you’re projecting this season based off of his track record, then none of this matters anyway. But with Maxey and George in town, plus a deep team that features size and shooting, the 76ers are as positioned to take a load off of Embiid during the regular season as they ever have been. That really, really matters. If they can just get to April and Embiid is ready to go, they have a more real shot at the championship than most teams in the league. At the end of the day, the only thing I care about this season is if they can make that happen.
TOR: Was post-trade RJ Barrett real?
Last season: 25-57 (12th in East), missed postseason
It’s officially a new era in Toronto. Years of mediocrity culminated in the decision to finally trade Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby, jettisoning the last of the Raptors’ 2019 championship core and signaling the beginning of a new era built around Scottie Barnes. At least one new piece is already in the door; Immanuel Quickley was acquired for Anunoby and subsequently signed a long-term deal to stay in town. But it’s the other piece of that trade that has my eye going into this season: RJ Barrett.
Barrett’s career arc has been an interesting one. His elite skill has always been his driving, as his frame and strength make him very hard to stop. He spent multiple seasons starting on good Knick teams, and his scoring punch proved vital to their 2023 playoff run, which saw the franchise’s first playoff series win in a decade. But inconsistency and passivity have sometimes plagued him, and his relative deficiencies as a shooter, playmaker and defender have held him back from ascending to All-Star status. The Anunoby trade was largely viewed as an Anunoby/Quickley swap at the time with Barrett serving largely as contract ballast, but upon donning his hometown threads, Barrett put everyone on notice.
In 32 games with the Raptors, Barrett averaged 21.8 points per game on by far the best efficiency of his career. In fact, his usage rate with Toronto was its lowest since his sophomore season, yet his scoring average was the highest it’s ever been. This huge leap in efficiency can largely be attributed to his finishing at the rim. A higher share of his shots came at the basket than ever before (52%, per CTG), and he made an astonishing 72% of those looks. For reference, Barrett never took more than 49% of his shots at the rim in a season with the Knicks, and he never made more than 59% of those shots. His effective field goal percentage as a Raptor (60.2%) was over ten percentage points higher than in any full season of his career. In a flash, Barrett went from middling scorer to elite downhill threat. He also averaged more assists than ever — with less usage, that’s a great sign about the growth of his game.
As exciting and encouraging as Barrett’s time in Toronto was last season, the 32-game sample size cannot be overlooked. Barrett has had a tendency throughout his career to go on prolonged hot and cold stretches, and his numbers were so much better than his career norms that it’s fair to at least wonder how much a hometown boost might have helped him in the short-term. He also shot 39% from three with Toronto after only shooting over 36% once over a full season (and only 33% with the Knicks last season), so his stellar overall efficiency numbers might not be as sustainable as one may hope. The only way for us to know how real this run was is to see it for a full season. If this new RJ is here to stay, then Toronto has another potential building block alongside Barnes and Quickley. The Raptors appear primed at a semi-competitive season where development takes priority; I’m looking forward to seeing where Barrett asserts himself within this team’s core going forward.
WAS: How does Jonas Valanciunas impact Alex Sarr’s development as a rookie?
Last season: 15-67 (14th in East), missed postseason
This one’s gonna be short. Under new leadership, the Washington Wizards decided to finally commit to a long overdue full rebuild last summer. After shipping Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis to title contenders for whatever assets they could get, the long-term vision is to build from the bottom up with talented high draft picks and sustainably build the first truly great Washington basketball team since the 1970s. The short-term vision is to be very, very bad.
The first year of this endeavor landed the Wizards the second overall pick and the rights to draft Alexandre Sarr, but the next two drafts are widely considered much stronger than this one, and Washington didn’t do this for just one bite at the apple. I say all of this to say that much of the on-court product will much more closely resemble Capture the Flagg — but there are still things to track for this season, particularly the growth of the young Wizards.
Sarr’s rookie development is particularly important for the Wizards, who finished 28th leaguewide in defense last season. A seven-footer with immense reach, Sarr projects to be a potential game-changer defensively. But his slight frame doesn’t lend itself well to playing center out of the gate, and his offensive tendencies are much more perimeter-oriented at this point. The Wizards, likely feeling the same way, signed Jonas Valanciunas to a three-year contract, who knows a thing or two about playing in the paint. Valanciunas has been a starter at every stop of his journey for a reason; his screens give an offense juice, while his rebounding on both ends is a handful for most of the league. Though he doesn’t block many shots or bring much scheme versatility, the consistent play at center will be a structural life raft for Sarr, who can hone his skills as a weakside rim protector while his growing pains positionally and as a rebounder are somewhat mitigated.
There are more development stories to track; Bilal Coulibaly is entering his second season as an NBA professional after just exiting his teenage years, while Washington’s other rookies Bub Carrington and Kyshawn George will likely see playing time. Kyle Kuzma’s name will remain in trade rumors, but teams might come calling about Malcolm Brogdon or even Valanciunas. Washington is playing for ping-pong balls; they’ll take whatever offers they feel make them better down the road — just look at the trade that got them Brogdon, Carrington and another first round pick in exchange for Deni Avdija. In the meantime, just about all we can do is slowly watch the pieces come together. To that effect, I’m excited to see how Sarr grows throughout this year with some functional center play next to him.